October 6, 2015

Gary’s Tips

Selections 06/10 Races

Bad day today unfortunately, it happens.. We have to put up with blank days but we are well ahead of target so should be able to cover it.

For tomorrow Gary selects …

Tips  Wednesday 7th  October

Nottingham                   16.10  Fei  kuai                            3/1

Ludlow                            15.15  Dreamsoftheatre            3/1

Towcester                       16.35  Pretty Rose                      9/2

Kempton                          18.25  Cabinet Room                 6/1

Kempton                          19.25  Song Of Norway              5/1

Link to previous post (Results 04/10 Races) 



Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by David Caple


October 6, 2015

Gary’s Tips

Results 04/10 Races

One minute he’s saying to me the results are “all over the place”, then he says “at least Sweet P has broken us even” and then he ends up saying “nice little profit now Revolusionist has come in” …  what you might call an improving day :)

Meet Race Selection Bet Gary’s Odds BOG Odds Betfair SP My Odds Pos BOG Return Betfair Return My Return
Ponte 15:40 Mr Kite W 7.00 7.00 4.90 7.00 5 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
Ponte 16:15 Ivors Involvement W 5.00 5.00 3.89 6.00 10 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
Wind 14:55 Sheded W 4.50 5.00 5.87 5.00 10 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
Wind 16:00 Sweet P W 6.00 6.00 3.71 6.00 1 5.00 2.57 5.00
Wind 17:35 Revolutionist W 4.00 4.00 3.15 4.33 1 3.00 2.04 3.33
Day Totals: 5.00 1.62 5.33
Running Totals: 70.13 50.90 79.23


Betfair SP is dropping way behind now … I learnt the hard way.  Get those bets on early!

Link to previous post (Morning Prices 06/10)

Link to next post (Selections 06/10 Races)



Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by David Caple


Dear oh dear oh dear. I know what it’s like to be on the receiving end of a highly recommended service which bombs as soon as I subscribe. I’ve done it many times! Now I know what it’s like to be on the other side, as the one who made the recommendation. The timing couldn’t have been worse. It’s like I put the mockers on it. I can tell you, it hurts even more than being the subscriber. You will find similar praise for this service on other well established review sites as well.

This is what I said in my June summary: “If Tim can keep this level of success going for a year, it must be one of the best tipster services of all time.”

Well, the.. erm.. good news is, if you had subscribed when the review started back in April, you would still be in profit. We emphasize over and over the importance of taking a long-term view. However, even over the six month period, the six point profit this has made would not make it interesting enough for many of our readers.

Since my recommendation on June 30th, this service has lost the 100 point starting bank. There’s no gloss to put on that really. In fact, Darren, who runs the admirable Betting Gods web service (which is the agency for BRBB), sent out an impassioned email to his subscribers over the weekend about cancellations and negative emails concerning their services, reminding them of the winning mentality necessary for successful punting and pointing to the long term success of his services. He omitted to mention Big Race Bookie Busters, which is hardly surprising for a service with a graph that looks like you’re at the top of a ski slope looking down!

Screen Shot 2015-10-05 at 09.35.22

Of course, Darren does his due diligence before taking on a service, and all he can do is go on past results for future potential. It’s quite obvious to anybody who has been with BRBB since last year that Tim knows his horses, and my own hunch is that he will recover and go on to future success.

Would I carry on following his bets? I’m afraid not. There’s a point to be made here about what ‘long term’ really means. When you’re investing in the stock market, long term means years. We wouldn’t throw in the towel every time they suffer a 3 month drawdown. But we don’t view gambling on sports with the same longevity. That’s because, unlike stock, we don’t have decades to look back and see recovery periods. So then we go on to ask, “is one month enough to assess a service”? Three months? A year? Well, of course the same reply would not apply to all services. I know of a very successful investor in the soccer markets who claims that he will give a system two years. I just think we all have to make our own minds up about this, and stick to it. In truth, if you sign up to a service and you assign a bank to it, then that bank becomes something you’re willing to risk with the particular service. Abandoning it when it’s 40% down doesn’t make any sense at all.

Unfortunately, with BRBB, the recommended 100 point bank has gone for June subscribers. It’s unreasonable to judge Betting Gods by this service. The agency is transparent, well run, not overpriced and effectively gives a free trial by offering a money back guarantee for the first month.

For me, it’s over and out on Big Race Bookie Busters. I wish it well.

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Dave Yeates


October 6, 2015

Gary’s Tips

Morning Prices 06/10

Here are the prices available this morning at 11:00.

Tips Tuesday  6th October

Brighton               14.20  Beatbybeatbybeat         7/2  … morning price:  3.25  :)

Catterick               16.30  Di’s Gift                        13/2  … morning price:  7.00  :(

Leicester               16.10  Hipz                                 7/1  … morning price:  8.50  :)

Kempton               17.40  Kenstone                      10/3  … morning price:  4.00 :(

Kempton               19.40   Magical Thomas          7/2  … morning price:  4.50

Not good news if you delayed placing your bets :(  Three have shortened and even the one (Hipz) that has lengthen is way down on last night (I got it at 11.00 with Bet365!  :) ).

I want to mention a message I got from Paul yesterday.  He was concerned that putting the bets on the evening before the day of the race meant they would be treated as ante-post.  It’s an interesting point and was not my understanding but I don’t claim to be an encyclopaedia of betting so I thought I should check it out. The ante-post rules are as I suspected. Once final declarations are made (usually 24 – 48 hours before the race) the betting falls under what I will call ‘normal rules’ i.e. a non-runner is fully refunded. So to bet in the evening before should always be safe and I have never had a non runner refused a refund but … and there is always a but in life … you may need to be careful of BOG’s!

It seems not all BOG bookmakers give BOG as a matter of fact even if they claim to … Paddy said all ‘normal’ horse racing bets enjoy a BOG once the race odds are posted but Lads said it only gives a BOG to bets placed after 09:00 on the morning!  Maybe I’ve been lucky with my Lads bets but I had never noticed that. The moral of the story is always check your T&C’s. If anyone has a list of BOG T&C’s for bookmakers could they let me know and I will post them here.

Link to previous post (Selections 06/10 Races)

Link to next post (Results 04/10 Races)


Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by David Caple


I have been looking at Percentage Price Method, a system costing £89.99 as a one-off payment. As I have had to undergo an emergency operation I am going to end this trial here; with 7332 selections I have more than enough data and it is hard to know how to start!

Firstly this is NOT a system for folks new to horse race betting. The system seeks “value” at the higher odds and the manual states that long chains of losing runs are expected. This was the case with both time periods (more on this later) having losing runs of up to 78 selections. You need to have your psychology in place to see these losing runs through and bank management is also key. Neither aspect is likely for folks new to betting.

Secondly, this is a very hands-on system; you place bets pre-race and then manage these selections until a certain point has been reached after the race has started. This is tricky to learn initially and whilst it becomes easier with practice this is another reason why the system isn’t suitable for newbies.

As the system requires a lot of concentration it isn’t recommended that you attempt to bet on every race. I used two different time slots: the last 2 hours of afternoon racing and, where there were evening races, the entire evening racecard. This produced 3562 bets and 3770 bets respectively, so you can see that the system generates a lot of bets! Bear in mind that the bet management I hinted at above means many times more bets than this were placed but then subsequently cancelled.

Please note that I aimed to manage about 6 bets pre-race and moved up the odds range (to a ceiling) attempting to get this number of bets. Where this didn’t happen I then moved down the odds range (to a floor). 6 (ish) bets is enough to manage and, when starting the system, I’d look for only 3 to 4 until you get a grip on the mechanics.

OK, this system requires a fair bit of work. The payoff is 369 points profit for the afternoon time slot and 238 points profit for evening racing. It is worth the time!

Whilst talking profits my largest drawdown was 100 points. Considering this and the expectation of losing runs I’d be looking at 500 point banks. Hence £1000 bank would allow betting at £2 per point easily absorbing a 100 points drawdown or losing run of 100 selections (both would reduce the bank by only £200). The profits would be £738 and £476 respectively or, to put it another way, 73.8% bank increase and 47.6% bank increase; the system does reward the effort.

You have probably sussed by now that I am going to approve the system.

I am going to drill in to the data a wee bit more though, but you don’t have to read this bit!

Below is a bar chart of the profit and losses for each odds I took.


For afternoon racing I’d ignore any selections where the bet would be placed at odds less than 7. Whilst this has a minimal effect (an extra 4 points) it does mean that you need not hunt the lower odds ranges looking for 6 selections. Removing bets where the bet would be placed at odds over 36 does have a dramatic effect as it adds 111 points bringing the total to 484 points (96.8% increase on bank using the figures above).

For evening racing I’d ignore any selections where the bet would be placed at odds less than 8 and above 48 as this adds a further 113 points bringing the total to 351 points (70.2% increase on bank using the figures above) .

Mind you, the higher odds only need 1 winner and this would turnaround very quickly!

Another way to view this data is to look at whether any particular day is more profitable.

For afternoon racing Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday were profitable, Wednesday and Sunday broke even and Saturday made a loss. Due to the frequency of races Saturdays and Bank Holidays are not recommended to operate this system on.

For evening racing Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday (by evening the frequency of races is very much reduced) were profitable, Sunday broke even and losses were incurred Monday and Thursday.

The following pie charts reflect my data:



In summary then; this is a quite complex system and requires some effort to become proficient at and to operate. It requires a good psychological outlook and strict bank management and therefore it is not recommended for new gamblers. However, if you invest the time the system will reward with a heap of points and nice profits. The system is therefore approved.

You can get the Percentage Price Method here:Approved2



Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Arthur

1 comment

October 5, 2015

Gary’s Tips

Selections 06/10 Races

Here we go for tonight, we had a couple of winners today and I will post full results tomorrow as usual.  In case you are wondering why I don’t post the good news until the next day it’s because my racing database doesn’t get updated until the next day with all the formal results and prices until then and I don’t want to do it manually because there is more chance of an error creeping in.

Tips Tuesday  6th October

Brighton                         14.20  Beatbybeatbybeat                        7/2

Catterick                         16.30  Di’s Gift                                           13/2

Leicester                         16.10  Hipz                                                  7/1

Kempton                         17.40  Kenstone                                         10/3

Kempton                         19.40   Magical Thomas                             7/2

Note:  Hipz is currently 11.00 at Bet365 so you may consider going EW as I will be but the selection will be valued like all other as a Win bet.   Be lucky.

Link to previous post (Morning Prices 05/10)

Link to next post (Morning Prices 06/10)



Filed under Backing,General,Horse Racing Systems by David Caple


October 5, 2015

Lay The Draw Software

I have been recording results for this system since early March and it’s now time to end the trial.

The reason for the extended trial period was based on the fact that this only targets English and Scottish leagues, so we had the off season to contend with. There’s also the fact that I wanted to give it a long run as wasn’t really convinced about the idea behind it.

The method is basically about laying the draw for any team that drew their last game. The software starts out with every team in all the English & Scottish leagues on a selection list. You run the software and it finds all the qualifying games. Once all the games have been played out and the results known, the software will remove any team that now has two consecutive draws. Those teams will not be selected again during the season.

We got off to a very good start and a reasonable amount of profit was made at the tail end of last season. Sadly, that trend has not continued into this season and all the profit gained has been lost and we end the trial slightly below where we started.

I did spot an odds range that performed much better. Half way through the trial, I found that if we only bet in games where the draw price was between 3.75 and 6.00 (when I checked prices, usually on the morning of games) a much higher strike rate and level of profit was achieved. Using that odds range a profit of just over 10 points would have been made sine the start of the trial.

Whilst that doesn’t sound a huge profit in the period we’ve covered, it has to be remembered that this is not an ongoing subscription affair. You buy a license for the software and there are no more fees to pay. A license running to the end of the current season costs £24.99, so you wouldn’t need to be staking at a high level to recover your purchase price and make a profit on top.

Now that I have all the figures for the trial period, I can see that if you slightly adjusted my odds range to only betting in games between 4.00 and 6.00 you’d have made around 24 points. You would only have had 39 bets in the trial period, but 36 of them were winners.

Obviously, as it lost a few points overall, I can’t put this on the Approved list but bearing in mind the reasonable purchase price, the extremely good customer service and the fact that you can make it work quite well if you employ a sensible odds filter, putting it on the Failed list seems a bit harsh.

I think a rating of NEUTRAL seems the best fit.





Filed under Football by Liam


October 5, 2015

Gary’s Tips

Morning Prices 05/10

Here are the prices available this morning at 11:45.  A bit later than usual this morning which may explain the swings in prices, some good, some bad.

Tips  Monday  5th October

Pontefract                15.40  Mr Kite                     6/1 … morning price:  5.00  :(

Pontefract                16.15  Ivors Involvement   4/1 … morning price:  6.00  :)

Windsor                   14.55  Sheded                        7/2 … morning price:  5.00  :)

Windsor                   16.00  Sweet P                       5/1 … morning price:  4.50  :(

Windsor                   17.35  Revolutionist             3/1 … morning price:  3.25  :(

Three have shortened since last night and two gained.  Trouble is under BOG terms shortening is more harmful that lengthening.

Link to previous post (Results 04/10 Races)

Link to next post (Selections 06/10 Races)


Filed under General by David Caple


October 5, 2015

Gary’s Tips

Results 04/10 Races

You didn’t really expect another 13 points in a day after Saturday did you?   :)   A nice consolidation yesterday, a half point profit is a profit and as they say in the City … it’s never wrong to take a profit. :)   Another pat on the back for Gary.

Meet Race Selection Bet Gary’s Odds BOG Odds Betfair SP My Odds Pos BOG Return Betfair Return My Return
Hunt 15:05 Cahill W 4.50 4.50 3.58 5.00 3 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
Kelso 14:05 Muwalla W 6.00 6.00 6.40 6.50 6 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
Kelso 16:55 Donapollo W 4.00 4.50 4.60 4.00 1 3.50 3.42 3.50
Uttox 17:05 Typical Oscar W 6.00 6.00 5.24 7.00 5 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
Day Totals: 0.50 0.42 0.50
Running Totals: 65.13 49.28 73.90


So at Gary’s achieved odds he’s 65 points up since 15th September, 3 weeks … me?  I’m nearly 74 points up because I shop around more with more bookmaker accounts (I’ve been in the game longer) but I only use the bigger ones.  All my accounts are with bookmakers on Oddschecker and I don’t use all the bookies there so matching Gary’s odds should be no problem at all for most.

Link to previous post (Selections 05/10 Races)

Link to next post (Morning Prices 04/10)



Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by David Caple


October 4, 2015

Gary’s Tips

Selections 05/10 Races

Here we go for tonight, we had a winner today si made a small profit but a profit is never wrong.

Tips  Monday  5th October

Pontefract               15.40  Mr Kite                       6/1

Pontefract               16.15  Ivors Involvement     4/1

Windsor                  14.55  Sheded                        7/2

Windsor                  16.00  Sweet P                       5/1

Windsor                  17.35  Revolutionist             3/1

Be lucky.

Link to previous post (Results 03/10  Selections)

Link to next post (Results 04/10  Selections)


Filed under General by David Caple