September 20, 2014

The Diff Code

A losing week this week for me although I made a mistake. When we get an amber signal we are supposed to close any open trades. I forgot this and did nothing and ended up losing more than I should when I got stopped out:

15/9 +£56.61
16/9 + £58.48
17/9  -£119.70 (should have been less)
18/9 No Trade
19/9 No Trade

Weekly Profit: -£4.61
Total Profit: +£293.56

Had I closed Wednesdays trade like I was supposed to then I would have ended in profit this week. Doh.

You can try The Diff Code on a 45 day risk free trial here:

http://www.cash-master.com/TheDiffCode.php

Filed under Spread Betting by Graham

0 comments

September 20, 2014

Winning Day Trader

Well a poor week for me this week, not helped at all by the fact my staking levels have been inconsistent due to the £10 minimum stake requirement on US Tech:

Date Market Size P/L
19/09/2014 Spot FX EUR/USD 2 -£68.60
19/09/2014 FTSE 100 2 -£56.60
19/09/2014 Germany 30 -2 £17.60
19/09/2014 FTSE 100 -2 £42.00
19/09/2014 US Tech 100 -10 -£296.00
19/09/2014 Short Interest for 18/09/14 - -£2.24
18/09/2014 FTSE 100 -3 £4.50
18/09/2014 Spot FX AUD/USD -3 £64.20
18/09/2014 Spot FX NZD/USD -3 £14.40
18/09/2014 FTSE 100 -3 £27.00

 

Day Total: -£253.74
Week Total: -£909.24
Overall: -£160.86

I had a comment from a reader asking why I don’t open a position at £10 then immediately open another in the opposite direction for £7 thus having an aggregate of £3. I asked Adam about this and he said:

“In regard to trading at £10 then closing £7 straight away you would instantly eat into profits due to the spread.

So you open @ £10 and the spread during open hours is 1 point. You close £7 straight away and assuming your really quick and price hasn’t moved you’ve instantly lost £7. It’s not a lot in the grand scheme of things and for people struggling to trade with the higher balance could be an option. It would be easy to plug that into the spreadsheet to show how it would have affected results. But you have to take into consideration that if the price has moved say 3 points by the time you close your £7 you will now be down 3x£7 = £21 instantly. That means on your £3 trade left you have to make 7 points just to break even.”

Here are my results from the beginning up to, and including Wednesday this week, showing the results had I been betting to level stakes:

Date Market Stake Graham Non Skewed
08/09/14 FTSE 2 £41.00 £205.00
08/09/14 FTSE 2 £32.00 £160.00
09/09/14 Div 2 £2.00 £10.00
09/09/14 FTSE 2 £10.40 £52.00
09/09/14 US TECH 10 £228.00 £228.00
09/09/14 US TECH 10 -£12.00 -£12.00
09/09/14 FTSE 2 £34.60 £173.00
09/09/14 GERMANY 2 £42.60 £213.00
09/09/14 FTSE 2 £4.40 £22.00
09/09/14 EU STOCK 2 £1.40 £7.00
10/09/14 US TECH 10 £67.00 £67.00
10/09/14 EU STOCK 2 £4.00 £20.00
10/09/14 EUR/USD 2 £1.80 £9.00
10/09/14 FTSE 2 £8.60 £43.00
10/09/14 GERMANY 2 £9.00 £45.00
10/09/14 WALL STREET 2 £24.40 £122.00
11/09/14 US TECH 10 -£52.00 -£52.00
11/09/14 FTSE 2 £6.00 £30.00
11/09/14 GERMANY 2 £24.40 £122.00
11/09/14 WALL STREET 2 £52.80 £264.00
11/09/14 FTSE 2 -£62.00 -£310.00
11/09/14 FTSE 2 -£28.60 -£143.00
11/09/14 US TECH 10 -£30.00 -£30.00
11/09/14 EUR/USD 2 £44.00 £220.00
11/09/14 FTSE 2 -£6.00 -£30.00
11/09/14 FTSE 2 £18.40 £92.00
11/09/14 EUR/USD 2 £21.60 £108.00
11/09/14 INTREST 2 -£3.74 -£18.70
11/09/14 INTREST 2 -£1.22 -£6.10
12/09/14 FTSE 2 £10.00 £50.00
12/09/14 US TECH 10 £53.00 £53.00
12/09/14 US TECH 10 £98.00 £98.00
12/09/14 GERMANY 2 £27.00 £135.00
12/09/14 FTSE 2 -£13.80 -£69.00
12/09/14 US TECH 10 £2.00 £2.00
12/09/14 WALL STREET 2 £98.20 £491.00
12/09/14 INTREST 3 -£4.86 -£16.20
13/09/14 FTSE 3 £43.50 £145.00
13/09/14 AUD/USD 3 £10.50 £35.00
13/09/14 US TECH 10 £40.00 £40.00
13/09/14 US TECH 10 -£311.00 -£311.00
13/09/14 NZD/USD 3 £4.20 £14.00
13/09/14 WALL STREET 3 -£27.90 -£93.00
13/09/14 GERMANY 3 £21.00 £70.00
13/09/14 GERMANY 3 £66.00 £220.00
13/09/14 FTSE 3 -£93.30 -£311.00
13/09/14 GERMANY 3 -£134.70 -£449.00
13/09/14 GERMANY 3 -£113.70 -£379.00
16/09/14 Div 3 -£1.00 -£3.33
16/09/14 NZD/USD 3 £82.20 £274.00
16/09/14 GERMANY 3 £24.00 £80.00
16/09/14 US TECH 10 £141.00 £141.00
16/09/14 FTSE 3 £3.00 £10.00
16/09/14 AUD/USD 3 -£75.90 -£253.00
16/09/14 FTSE 3 -£81.90 -£273.00
16/09/14 GERMANY 3 £46.50 £155.00
16/09/14 GERMANY 3 -£139.50 -£465.00
16/09/14 FRANCE 3 -£88.20 -£294.00
16/09/14 WALL STREET 3 £29.10 £97.00
16/09/14 GERMANY 3 £60.60 £202.00
16/09/14 FTSE 3 £14.40 £48.00
16/09/14 EU STOCK 3 £15.60 £52.00
16/09/14 INTREST 3 -£6.03 -£20.10
17/09/14 WALL STREET (HIGH RISK) 1
17/09/14 US TECH 10 -£321.80 -£321.80
17/09/14 WALL STREET (HIGH RISK) 1
17/09/14 FTSE 3 £27.00 £90.00
17/09/14 FTSE 3 £49.50 £165.00
17/09/14 FTSE 3 £36.60 £122.00
17/09/14 FRANCE 3 £40.50 £135.00
17/09/14 FTSE 3 £20.70 £69.00
17/09/14 GERMANY 3 £68.40 £228.00
17/09/14 FRANCE 3 -£9.00 -£30.00
17/09/14 INTREST 3 -£4.07 -£13.57
RESULTS WITH HIGH RISK BANK £1,000 BANK £10,000
GRAHAM P/L £96.88 9.68%
£10/POINT £1,437.40 14.37%
RESULTS WITHOUT HIGH RISK
GRAHAM P/L £188.68 18.86%
£10/POINT £1,529.20 15.29%
Week 1 Points 235 £2,354.00
Week 2 Points -82 -£824.80

This shows that even with a dismal week included, I would have still made a healthy profit had I been using level stakes.

I asked Adam about last week’s results and this was his response:

“This past week (15th – 19th September) has seen some of the most difficult and unpredictable trading I have seen for a long time. This is in part due to the following factors, which very rarely occur let alone fall within a 1 week period.

1. On Wednesday the US Federal Reserve bank held a meeting to discuss a number of things including: Current interest rates, future interest rates, the end of Quantitive Easing. These decisions have a massive impact on the markets both in the build-up, during and after the meeting. It was decided that current interest rates would be kept as they are for a ‘considerable time’ and than QE will end in October meaning the Fed will no longer be pumping billions of dollars into the economy every month.

2. The Scottish independence vote. This had a profound effect on both the indices and currency market for a number of reasons: If it was a yes vote then the GBP would plummet due to the uncertainty of the new Scottish currency, and the EUR would have risen as this would be the most likely replacement. The FTSE moved massively as it is made up of several large Scottish companies that both dropped and rose in value over the week due to the uncertainty. Several preliminary phone polls where conducted throughout the week which all showed different outcomes for the vote, and as each were released the market moved accordingly whipsawing a lot of trades.

3. This week an unofficial rumour from the Chinese Central Bank revealed that they had made around $80 billion available in additional liquidit
y for their large banks. This was an un-planned announcement which caused huge unexpected moves in the market to the upside. Only this morning did the rumour become official!

4. Today is a quadruple witching day that only occurs 4 times a year. It refers to index futures, index options, stock futures and stock options expiring on the same day. Couple this with it being an ex-divident day, the increase in volatility makes it quite hard to trade.

5. Extreme geo-political risk from the middle east including Syria, Iraq and Iran. Also geo-political risk from the Russian – Ukraine conflict.

As you can see the above factors have caused wild swings in the markets, sometimes extremely quickly and with no warning which has caught me out resulting in a very rare losing week. I have no doubt that next week the markets will settle and I will be back trading successfully.

On their own each of these individual events (apart from the Chinese bank as it was unplanned) could be dealt with. However it is almost a once in a lift time week to have them accumulate together and the increased volatility went against me. It could easily have been the best trading week of my life but it is easy to look back at weeks and cherry pick when I should trade and when I shouldn’t. Having done this as a full time profession for a number of years you almost become complacent that you can deal with all the markets throw at you, but it’s clear to see that even professionals have bad weeks. 

I have made a decision based on my experience over the last two weeks, that the only fair way to conduct this trial is to do it at level stakes. I’m also confident that Adam really does know his stuff and so I have deposited £10k into my IG Index account and will be trading at £10 a pip from Monday.

Wish me luck!

Here’s Adam’s trades for the last two days:

19-9-1

19-9-2

19-9-3

Filed under Spread Betting by Graham

1 comment

September 18, 2014

Winning Day Trader

Another losing day for me yesterday. I’ve come to realise my results will be skewed somewhat by the different staking levels on different markets. I’m staking £3 per pip on everything except US Tech which is a minimum of £10 per pip. This means that I could have plenty of winning trades on other markets, and just one losing trade on US Tech would wipe that out. Conversely of course I could have a number of losing trades and still do well with one winning trade on US Tech.

Ideally I should be trading at £10 a pip on all markets but since I’m using real money, and this is still in test phase, I’m not comfortable doing that.

It’s possible of course to just multiply the profit/loss on the other trades to see what it would be at £10 a pip across the board and this may be something I do at the end of the trial.

Anyhow, I’m almost back to square one:

Date Market Size P/L
17/09/2014 Wall Street -1 -£50.40
17/09/2014 US Tech 100 -10 -£321.80
17/09/2014 Wall Street -1 -£41.40
17/09/2014 FTSE 100 3 £27.00
17/09/2014 FTSE 100 -3 £49.50
17/09/2014 FTSE 100 3 £36.60
17/09/2014 France 40 3 £40.50
17/09/2014 FTSE 100 -3 £20.70
17/09/2014 Germany 30 -3 £68.40
17/09/2014 France 40 -3 -£9.00
17/09/2014 Short Interest for 16/09/14 - -£4.07

 

Day Total: -£183.97
Week Total: -£655.50
Overall: £92.88

Here’s Adams results:

17-1

17-2

17-3

17-4

17-5

Filed under Spread Betting by Graham

6 comments

September 17, 2014

Winning Day Trader

I had an almost break even day yesterday with several trades hitting the stops in the morning but then gains made in the afternoon to bring it back again. Adam seemed to be having a tough time of it, made worse by him setting the wrong staking level on one of his own trades by mistake. A costly mistake for him too!

Here’s my results for the day:

Date Market Size P/L
16/09/2014 Adjustment for dividend in  US Tech 100 - -£1.00
16/09/2014 Spot FX NZD/USD 3 £82.20
16/09/2014 Germany 30 3 £24.00
16/09/2014 US Tech 100 10 £141.00
16/09/2014 FTSE 100 -3 £3.00
16/09/2014 Spot FX AUD/USD -3 -£75.90
16/09/2014 FTSE 100 3 -£81.90
16/09/2014 Germany 30 3 £46.50
16/09/2014 Germany 30 3 -£139.50
16/09/2014 France 40 3 -£88.20
16/09/2014 Wall Street -3 £29.10
16/09/2014 Germany 30 -3 £60.60
16/09/2014 FTSE 100 -3 £14.40
16/09/2014 EU Stocks 50 -3 £15.60
16/09/2014 Short Interest for 15/09/14 - -£6.03

 

Day Total: +£23.87
Week Total: -£471.53
Overall: £276.85

Here is the text I got from Adam last night. Quite amazing!

photo-1

photo-2

photo-3

So there you have it. Even pro traders are human and can make costly mistakes!

Here’s his results:

16-9-1

16-9-2

16-9-3

16-9-4

16-9-5

Filed under Spread Betting by Graham

3 comments

September 16, 2014

Bet Alchemist

I last did an update on this service in July and since then it’s really made some remarkable profits.

In fact, since 1st July it’s made a whopping 117.95 points!

So that’s eight straight winning months in a row with this month looking like it’s going to be another one.

Full results can be found on their website.

Bet Alchemist has made profits for seven years now so if you’ve not tried this service then you’re missing out.

They have some excellent bets lined up for the Ayr Gold Cup Festival this weekend. Last year they were on Highland Colori at 20/1 when he won the Ayr Gold Cup under Oisin Murphy. The Kerry National this Wednesday is also on their radar with tips going online today.

You can try Bet Alchemist with a 60 day money back guarantee here:

http://www.cash-master.com/BetAlchemist.php

Filed under Backing,Each Way,Horse Racing Systems by Graham

0 comments

September 16, 2014

Winning Day Trader

After a great week last week, I decided to increase my minimum stake from £2 to £3. As Murphy’s law dictates, we had a poor day yesterday and this was compounded by my increased stakes.

Here’s my results:

Date Market Size P/L
15/09/2014 FTSE 100 3 £43.50
15/09/2014 Spot FX AUD/USD 3 £10.50
15/09/2014 US Tech 100 10 £40.00
15/09/2014 US Tech 100 10 -£311.00
15/09/2014 Spot FX NZD/USD -3 £4.20
15/09/2014 Wall Street -3 -£27.90
15/09/2014 Germany 30 -3 £21.00
15/09/2014 Germany 30 -3 £66.00
15/09/2014 FTSE 100 -3 -£93.30
15/09/2014 Germany 30 -3 -£134.70
15/09/2014 Germany 30 -3 -£113.70

 

Day Total: -£495.40
Week Total: -£495.40
Overall: £252.98

Ouch.

The biggest losses came from the US Tech trade that stopped out at the minimum £10 per pip, and we had two full losses on the Dax too.

We’ve had some questions about the size of trading bank required and Adam has answered below. Very sensible as you would expect.

“Having just read a comment on the blog about me having big losing weeks due to my average 150 points a week I want to clear it up. Yes I have losing weeks however they are very rare. I average 150 points a week however some weeks may only be 40 or 70 while others have been as high as 700. I tend to make claims and over deliver rather than claim hundreds and hundreds of points a week and then disappoint.

Also in terms of a minimum bank size, I personally recommend £10k but that is only because the US tech market requires £10/point minimum as you know. Sticking to my 3% rule you would need £10k. I know I can’t enforce people to start with a minimum amount however I want to make it clear that trading with anything less wouldn’t meet my personal risk management rules. “

Here’s Adam’s trades:

15-9-1

15-9-2

15-9-3

Filed under Spread Betting by Graham

4 comments

September 14, 2014

Master Racing Tipster

Date Selection Advised Points Result
08 September 2.30 Brighton, Ginzan 6.00 2 -£   40.00
10 September 2.00 Doncaster, Salateen 4.50 1 £   70.00
10 September 2.20 Carlisle, Dream Approval 3.25 1 £   45.00
10 September 4.35 Carlisle, Bartack 3.75 2 -£   40.00
10 September 7.45 Kempton, Galatian 9.00 1 -£   20.00
11 September 4.10 Epsom, Stephen Hero 7.00 1 -£   20.00
11 September 9.00 Wolv, Strawberry Matinii 13.00 1 -£   20.00
12 September 4.25 Doncaster, Nafaqa 9.00 1 £ 160.00
12 September 6.25 Salisbury, Ganymede 5.00 1 £   80.00
13 September 3.25 Bath, Jillnextdoor 17.00 1 -£   20.00
13 September 3.40 Curragh Cursory Glance 2.63 2 £   65.00

 

Week 8: 5 winners from 11 bets (S/R of 45.45%) for £260.00 using £20 stakes.
Overall: 25 winners from 101 bets (S/R of 24.75%) for £170.00 using £20 stakes

 

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Arthur

0 comments

September 14, 2014

Winning Trends

What a difference a fortnight makes!

This service has been treading water since I started following it on 14th May this year. My £500 went down by half and very gradually recovered over the following three months.

Then this happened:

Bets: 491
Successful: 108
Unsuccessful: 383
Strike Rate: 22%
Avg Odds: 5.24%
Profit: £497.85

(Actual profit would be +£597 allowing for the 10/1 winner I missed)

So within two weeks it’s doubled the original £500 starting bank.

This is the thing with horse racing. If you are following a method that is profitable in the long term, you just have to stick it out through the difficult months until you hit the seam of gold.

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Graham

0 comments

September 13, 2014

The Diff Code

A winning week this week for the Diff Code:

8/9 No Trade
9/9 + £53.04
10/9 +£53.44
11/9 +£54.60
12/9 No Trade

Weekly Profit: +£161.08
Total Profit: +£298.17

Pretty good for one minutes work each morning.

You can try The Diff Code on a 45 day risk free trial here:

http://www.cash-master.com/TheDiffCode.php

Filed under Spread Betting by Graham

0 comments

September 12, 2014

Winning Day Trader

Well, that was a good week!

Here’s todays results:

Date Market Size P/L
12/09/2014 FTSE 100 2 £10.00
12/09/2014 US Tech 100 10 £53.00
12/09/2014 US Tech 100 10 £98.00
12/09/2014 Germany 30 2 £27.00
12/09/2014 FTSE 100 -2 -£13.80
12/09/2014 US Tech 100 -10 -£2.00
12/09/2014 Wall Street -2 £98.20
12/09/2014 Short Interest for 11/09/14 - -£4.86

 

Day Total: £265.54
Week Total: £748.38

So that’s nearly £750 profit to the minimum stakes on IG Index, done mostly on my iPhone while I’ve been getting on with other things.

Here’s a snapshot of Adam’s last message to me:

text

And here’s Adam’s results:

12-9-1

12-9-2

12-9-3

Filed under Spread Betting by Graham

15 comments