April 27, 2015

Lay The Draw Software

This service has now fully recovered from its bad start and is now in profit to the tune of 4.15 points.

We have been recording results for around 6 weeks and have had 45 selections over that period.

That’s too small a sample to make full judgement on when I still think the method behind it is a bit random. As I said at the start of the trial, it’s hard to think of real valid reason why a team should be less likely to draw a game just because they drew their last regardless of venue, opposition, overall form etc.

However, I have been looking over what results we have recorded and there’s a very obvious “sweet spot” type pattern emerging.

The official figures (just laying each selection for the price obtainable mid morning of the game day) shows a profit of 4 points and a strike rate of around 78%. A look down the list of selections shows a couple of prices that I’d be extremely worried about laying, there’s a good few over 6.00, with one bet at a whopping 11.00.

If we just apply a sensible odds filter to knock out those that are too low (and therefore more likely to lose) and those that are too high (and therefore potentially very damaging) we can massively improve those figures.

If we use 3.75 as our minimum acceptable price and 6.00 as our maximum we end up with 25 selections, 23 of which won. Meaning a strike rate of 92%, a profit of 16 points and ROI of 64%. The average odds figure barely changes from the full method.

I won’t put up with back-fitted cherry picking, so if the “sweet spot” was within too random a price range I would disregard it. But 3.75 & 6.00 are perfectly sensible cut off points, tucked just above 5/2, which is dangerously low for a draw, and maxing out at 5/1, above which gets scary when you’re working with such simple/flimsy selection criteria.

Anyway, all the above is just conjecture at the moment. Here are the actual on-going trial figures:

BETS 45

WINS 35

S/R 77.78%

AV ODDS 4.48

P/L +4.15

DETAILED RESULTS FOR LTD SOFTWARE

 

TRY LTD SOFTWARE HERE

Filed under Football by Liam

0 comments

April 27, 2015

Draw Day Demoltion

We had 2 losing bets this week meaning a loss of around £50 mark for all banks.

 

BOOKIE METHODS (£100 level stakes)

Bets 111

Losses 26

S/R 76.58

PROFIT/LOSS:

BACK THE DRAW  -£1000 (BUST BANK. END OF RECORDING)

AWAY WIN (DNB)  -£261

DUTCH DRAW/AWAY -£255.73

DOUBLE CHANCE  -£261

 

BETFAIR METHOD (£100 LIABILITY 5% COMM DEDUCTED)

Bets 39

Losses 8

S/R 79.49%

LAY HOME TEAM  +£162.55

Filed under Football by Liam

0 comments

April 27, 2015

Champion Bets

Another tough week for this service, losing around 7 points after only getting 2 full winners from the usual 6 selections. I’ll end this trial after next weekend’s selections

FIGS SO FAR

BETS 87

WINS 48

S/R 55.17%

AV ODDS 1.66

P/L +21.13 points

DETAILED RESULTS FOR CHAMPION BETS

TRY CHAMPION BETS HERE

 

Filed under Football by Liam

0 comments

April 26, 2015

Doubling for Dummies

21st April :

22nd April : £+57.5

23rd April : £-50

24th April :

25th April : £+62.50 / £+60.50 / £-50

26th April : £-50 / £-50 / £+56.50

Week : £+37 / +0.74 pts

==============
Balance: £1,327.00 (start bank : £1,000)
==============

Win /Lose tally since start of review : 70 WINNING / 64 LOSING

Filed under General by Guy

0 comments

April 26, 2015

Percentage Form Edge

Very little change again this week for this service, taking further steps into the red…

20-Apr +3.1
21-Apr <no bet>
22-Apr -18
23-Apr -3.8
24-Apr +6
25-Apr -7.9
26-Apr +10.2

Weeks P/L : -10.4 pts

Overall P/L : -76.0 pts

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Guy

0 comments

April 26, 2015

Patton Racing Profits

Day 22

2 bets lost

Day -2  Cumulative -6.68 (Simon’s early prices -1.67  SP  -15.55)

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Dave Yeates

0 comments

April 26, 2015

Stallion Racing Picks

Day 27

One bet today, came 2nd.

Day -1 point   Cumulative -11.4 points

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Dave Yeates

0 comments

April 26, 2015

Stallion Racing Picks

Day 26

2 bets, one double strength winner, one lost

Day +3.75   Cumulative -10.4

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Dave Yeates

0 comments

April 26, 2015

Patton Racing Profits

Day 21

Three bets, one place

Day -1.38 points    Cumulative -4.68 points

(Simon’s early prices -1.25/+.33      SP -1.5/-13.55)

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Dave Yeates

0 comments

April 25, 2015

Big Race Bookie Buster

Day 16

Well. I’m pleased to say I did back the selections today. Somersby lost. Just A Par won at 15.0 SP, odds freely available when bet was advised were 19.0. So, early days but this service is shaping up to be very good indeed.

Day +43 points   Cumulative  +81.29 points.

GO COLLECT!!!!

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Dave Yeates

0 comments