November 5, 2012

Betting Speed Evolution

Betting Speed Evolution Final Review

I was asked to look at an advanced copy of Betting Speed Evolution from Michael Wilding of Race Advisor.

It is easy enough to install the software, and once installed I got selections for the day without any tears or tantrums. Thankfully, there’s an export function so that I could export the selections to Excel for easy recording of results. I notice that there is the ability to export in to GHB, which will be very useful for those that use that.

To £10 stakes, the automated selections are £136 in profit.  At the end of my “initial thoughts” review I said “For now, I am happy that I have something that works, and I hope that I will still be able to say that in a few weeks’ time“. The automated selections were £85 in profit at that time, so the software hasn’t really kicked on since then. This could be due to the “changeover” from Flat to National Hunt, always a tricky time for betting on the racing.

I also looked at betting each-way when the Betfair SP odds where 6 or greater. This is only £47 in profit (from £35 in the “initial thoughts” review) and cannot be recommended going forward.

Using a rolling 1% of bank as the stake also produced some profit. I checking the results I found a little error in my spreadsheet at each-way rolling 1% actually made a slight loss and not +£194 as previously reported.

I did look at 3% of bank as a stake but this made a significant loss.

Looking at the profit distribution:

Back

Lay

Grand Total

Bets

Profit

Bets

Profit

Bets

Profit

All Weather Flat

81

£ 316.26

37

-£ 35.70

118

£ 280.56

Chase

2

-£ 20.00

36

-£ 38.30

38

-£ 58.30

Flat

123

-£ 210.53

43

£ 70.80

166

-£ 139.73

Hurdle

8

£ 58.09

35

-£ 21.90

43

£ 36.19

National Hunt Flat

4

£ 17.50

0

4

£ 17.50

Grand Total

218

£ 161.32

151

-£ 25.1

369

£ 136.22

 

Back bets on chase is from 2 races, over hurdles 8 races and NH flat just 4 races, so conclusions cannot be drawn here.

Backing 123 races over Flat produced a significant loss, and folks who continue to use this application may want to adjust their staking plan next Summer. From the 151 advised Lay bets, laying selections on Flat produced the best results.

I also looked at the advanced function. I mucked this up, and I am truly sorry for anyone who was following my trial of this. I freely admit to not knowing a great deal about horse racing, and that was evident when the results were corrected. I still believe that the data could be useful in the hands of folks with a great deal more nowse than me, but that is difficult to prove in the context of this trial.

So, how to categorise this? We have made a profit through a difficult period, but the extent of that profit has not really been significant. Lying somewhere between Neutral and Approved I will err on the side of caution and, with some reservations, go Neutral. My chief reservation derives from September being really awful and there has been a steady recovery since then (from £107 down at one point to £135 up), so the application may be a great tool outside of the change-over period. Certainly, if you do buy this, you’ll need to monitor where the application is strongest (All weather backing plus Flat Laying and perhaps Hurdle backs with more data) and where it is weakest (Flat backing if this trend continues when not in the change-over period); it may be that just not using the application in September is also a plan.

You can get Betting Speed Evolution here:

http://www.cash-master.com/BettingSpeedEvolution.php

Filed under Backing,Each Way,Horse Racing Systems,Laying by Arthur

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