Betting Bots

or maybe not…

Just an update on some readers feedback. Whilst my post below was based on the results of two of my readers, I just got this through from another one:

Hi Graham,
 
Just read your blog for today and it left me scratching my head!
 
My info from Betfair Account:
 
1. Lost on first 2 races yesterday: 11:11 Sheff, 11:57 Sheff. Down total £76.04 (glad I wasn’t in!!)
2. Won on following 3 races: 12:04 Swin, Sheff 12:42 and 12:47. Up total £94.81
 
Stop Loss set at £150.00 with a £7.50 stake to win £15.00
 
Made my target and some for the day.
 
Regards,
 
xxxxxxxx
 
PS Won on all first 3 races today!
So maybe I jumped the gun a bit. It’s odd that different people are getting different results but it seems this reader got bets matched whereas the other two didn’t. Either way, it’s useful for you to know that there is always the chance of a wipeout so just be aware of this.

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Wipeout!

I haven’t been able to use the bot since Friday as I have been away and unable to leave my computer on during the day however I have had a couple of e-mails from people that were using the bot with the greyhound system yesterday and they hit their stop losses after a run of losing bets. Looking back through the results and I would certainly have hit my stop had I been running the system which would have wiped out my profits for this test.

This is frustrating after such a promising start but I think with any system like this we would need to see how it would work over the long term. Before starting the test I looked back over a years worth of results and the longest losing run was three and that was only once. Apparantly yesterday there was a losing run of four and no winning run of three to recover so everyone using the system with the same settings as me would have hit their stop.

Does this mean the system is useless? It’s difficult to say. It would really depend how often the stop loss gets hit. If the stop gets hit once a month then this would definately not make a profit. If we get a wipeout every three months then we would definately still profit although one would have to wonder if it’s worth the effort.

A sensible money management stratergy would be to have a betting bank of, say, £1000. Divide that into four separate banks of £250 and use one for the greyhound system. So with a stop of £250 you would have to aim for £2.50 a race for two or three races a day so lets say we aim to win £5 a day over two races. After a month, assuming no stops are hit, we would make about £150. If we re-invest that and raise the stop to £400 and aim for £8 a day then by the end of the second month we would have made £390 profit, so as long as the stop doesn’t get hit for two months we would be fine and we could take the profit and start again with a £250 stop knowing that if we hit it we would still be up, or we could take half the winnings each day and up the stop accordingly on a daily basis which would compound the growth more quickly. Using only a quarter of the betting bank as a stop would mean that if we do have a wipeout, we have another three lots of £250 to start it again.

But the question remains, how often is the stop likely to get hit? If it’s more than once every two months then it wouldn’t be profitable. I’deally you only want to be hitting your stop once or twice a year at the most to make it worthwhile and having hit the stop after a couple of weeks of trialling one has to wonder if it’s worth the risk.

I had a lucky escape yesterday with my profits intact and since I’ve been wanting to try the bot with some other selection systems I think I may knock the greyhound system on the head and see how we get on with using it with the horses. I’m back home tonight so will be able to run the bot again tomorrow. I have a system that lays horses but it requires betting just before the off if the prices of the selection and it’s competitors are within a certain range so would be an ideal candidate for using with the bot. It’s level staking too so it’ll be interesting to see if it’s profitable.

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The first two matched bets made our daily target again today. I’ll run this blog for another week just to be sure but at the moment it looks a pretty solid system.

P/L: £650

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The complete opposite of yesterday. We are done and dusted by 11.45am with the first two dogs losing. Thanks

P/L: £600

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Well we had quite a drawn out day today for the bot. A total of ten matched bets spanning the course of the day and finishing at 7.15 this evening. There were six unmatched bets throughout the sequence as the odds were too high, but of the matched bets the first lost, the next three recovered the loss and the fifth got us in profit. The sixth was a losing bet, the next three recovered and the last was a winning bet making the £50. Oddly the last bet, although matched at 6.33 this evening, didn’t run until 7.15, presumably because there was a delay at the track. Fortunately the dog lost and finished it otherwise the poor bot would have had to work a double shift.

P/L: £550

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Beautiful day today so I went to the park with my daughter leaving the bot to work.

The first race was a losing bet, the next a winner, then three didn’t get matched (probably too high odds) then another two winning bets recoving my initial loss. Then another non matched bet followed by two winning bets making my £50.

I’m well impressed by this little bot. I’ve been thinking about all the different ways you can bet with this and will start doing some experiments soon.

A few readers have gone ahead and bought this already and have asked me my advice on how much to aim for etc. Basically if you are doing the dog betting then in the manual it says to aim for 1% of your bank (or stop loss) per race and to go for 3 wins a day. Personally I would rather be done in 2 wins so I think the best way to go about this is to start off with a minimal bank and build it up over the coming months.

If you started with a £250 betting bank (set your stop to £250) and aimed to win just £2.50 a race stopping at £5 then even at just £5 a day that’s still an extra £150 a month coming in. In two months you will have more than doubled your betting bank. You can recalculate your target profit then to £5 a race for £10 a day and double your bank again in fifty days. Rinse and repeat. This way you have only ever risked a tiny amount compared to the returns you are getting.

Another way, and quicker, would be to recalculate your target profit per race at the start of each new days betting, so the compounding works daily rather than monthly, although personally I would rather take half the profit out and compound the other half so at least you are drawing an income.

And of course this is just using the greyhound system. The advantage of using this bot is that it does stuff you just wouldn’t bother to do yourself. You wouldn’t sit there a few hours in the afternoon to win a fiver, but you would press a button and win a fiver so I think it’s ideal for people wanting to bet with minimal stakes.

I’d be interested to see what happens if I just left the thing on all afternoon, so it doesn’t stop at my designated profit. Hmmmm…..

P/L: £500

You can get the Grey Horse Bot here:

http://www.cash-master.com/greyhorsebot.php

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I didn’t bet this weekend as I was away. Easy day today with the first two dogs losing.

P/L: £450

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Another effortless day. The first bet didn’t get matched but the second and third both did and were winning bets.

P/L: £400

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Nice and easy today with the first two losing and the bot stopping, telling me I’ve made my daily target. Cheers.

P/L: £350

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