From the category archives:

Football

January 5, 2014

Goals Galore

A relatively quiet week again but we did have some bets to report.

Still heading in the right direction and maintaining a great strike rate. Got a little lucky with today’s bet when a goal was scored in the 93rd minute to land our double.

Results so far:

Bets 38

Wins 32

Basic Profit £269.50  (26.95pts)

Adjusted Profit (recalculating 50 point bank daily)  £345.81

Average Odds 1.48

S/R 84.21%

R.O.I. 30.28%

Absolutely great performance so far.

GOALS GALORE RESULTS

 

TRY GOALS GALORE HERE

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December 29, 2013

Goals Galore

We’ve not had any bets since last weekend’s update, the leagues they focus on have not had any fixtures. We have had emails to notify us of the no bet days. They have shared a selection or two from other services from the same stable but I’m not going to include those in the trial of GG.

Hopefully they will have some bets soon but the last thing we want is for them to break their rules for the sake of finding a selection. If the leagues they look at all have an official winter break then I would expect to see that reflected in the subscription instructions, if it’s just a quiet period then that’s fair enough.

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December 22, 2013

Goals Galore

Another cracking week for this service. Really is pulling in the profits at the moment. They are performing way above their average level going by the published results from previous months, so we shouldn’t be surprised if/when we have a little wobble soon. I’m still very impressed with how we’ve gone so far.

 

Totals so far:

Bets 32

Wins 27

Losses 4

Void 1

Strike Rate 84.38%

Basic profit (based on £10 a point level stakes)  £229.30

Adjusted Profit (based on recalculating stakes to 50 point bank daily)  £282.52

Basic R.O.I. 30.99%

 

 

SIGN UP FOR GOALS GALORE HERE

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December 15, 2013

Goals Galore

A very quiet week for this service with no bets advised Monday-Thursday. No bad thing really as it’s far better to keep your powder dry than bet on something you’re half-hearted about just for the sake of providing a selection.

What bets we did have won, so not much to complain about there.

Current position:

Bets 24

Wins 20

S/R 83.33%

Ave Odds 1.47

Profit:

£159.90  (To £10 level stakes, so 15.99 points)

£182.97 (To daily adjusted stakes based on advice of 50 point bank)

Basic ROI 28.05%

 

 

TRY GOALS GALORE HERE

 

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December 8, 2013

Goals Galore

I’ve been following the fortunes of the Goals Galore tipster service for the last week.

Despite the same name, this is nothing to do with the enhanced BTTS coupon offered by Betfred. What we have here is a service specialising in the Over/Under 1.5 & 2.5 goals markets.

Bets arrive via email every morning at around 10am and are very clear and easy to read. The majority come with prices quoted from either Betfair or Bet365, although I have found better at other firms on several occasions. Only in one instance was I unable to get near the price they quoted, I emailed for advice just incase they had made an error on the market in question. I received a quick reply saying that the price was an error. It was way above what was available and too outlandish to be any attempt to deceive so I’m happy all is above board.

Claims made on the sales page look modestly realistic and achievable, no signs of the dubious 100+ points a month stuff. Subs fees are also reasonable at £19.95 a month or £39.95 a quarter, with your first week available for £1.

On to performance. Well, it’s been a very good start indeed. There’s an average of 2 bets a day, usually it’s a single bet plus a double on the Over 1.5 market. Prices aimed at are low, so a high strike rate is going to be essential. The sales page claims a long term strike rate of around 75% and in the first week I have achieved slightly higher than that with around 82% resulting in a win at average odds of 1.45.

A starting bank of 50 points is advised so I have assumed a notional bank of £500 and £10 per point bets. So far the majority of bets have been 2 point singles and 3 point doubles (usually low priced O1.5 market) with the occasional 1 point single at a slightly higher average price.

Bets 16

Wins 13

Losses 2

Postponed 1

Profit £111.20  (£121.88 if adjusting stake daily)

S/R 81.25%

ROI 30%

Official results for December have not been added to the sales page as yet but I have, as always, been keeping my own spreadsheet of performance with details of each bet inc the best price I have been able to find. If Betfair exchange is used I have adjusted for any comm due at 5%. For some reason Google spreadsheet will not recognise the formula I use in Excel for ROI, it is easily checkable and my quoted fig of 30% is correct

Goals Galore Results

TRY GOALS GALORE HERE

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I’ve had access to and have been playing with the Football Rating System website for the last week.

What we have here is something really rather different and I’m very keen on it indeed. It’s been created by the same team behind the ever popular and useful The Staking Machine service.

Rather than it being a tipster service or a selection system it’s a nifty little tool that allows you to create and back test your own systems for 9 of the most popular football leagues in Europe, the 4 pro leagues in England plus the usual suspects from the continent.

It’s still evolving at the moment and they have added a raft of new betting markets this week. You can now create systems and back test results over the last 3 full seasons for Win/Lose/Draw, Over/Under 2.5, Draw No Bet, Double Chance, Odd/Even Total Goals and Both To Score markets. All results can be exported to a spreadsheet for your own study and analysis.

How it works is really very simple but extremely helpful. You set your criteria, back test and fiddle until you are happy you’ve got it how you want it, then when you save your system settings it’ll search for any fixtures in the next 5 days that match up to your requirements. You can then have the selections emailed to you or you can save them to a spreadsheet for later reference. The website saves your system(s) so that when you log in, the first screen you see is a list of upcoming fixtures that match your requirements. You can even see best available price with a single click.

They have told me that they will be refining and adding to the criteria selection part of the site and do say on the site that you can make requests and that all suggestions will be considered. This is a very good idea as a few of the criteria are a little unwieldy at the moment and could do with being more flexible. There’s also been some talk of video examples being produced.

Rather than having to buy and download an actual programme, this is a subscription service that costs a very reasonable £10 a month. Although it may seem a faff to have a subscription rather than buy outright, it’s much better for this sort of thing. Firstly, I would imagine that it would be very expensive to actually buy this as there must be a lot of work involved in setting up such a piece of software.Secondly, if you did pay out a large amount of money to own it and then found that the websites that source this information were to disappear you’d be massively out of pocket. This sort of thing needs constant weekly updating throughout the season to keep it fit for purpose.

A great feature is that you can try it out for FREE, before deciding if you want to subscribe and get the full blown access, which will let you create and back test 1 system. Although you will not be able to save it, it will let you see just how much potential is in your idea and if it’s worth tinkering with.

Those are the factual bits, now for my own personal feelings and findings.

I was a intrigued by the idea of having a site like this, as I do not know of any other Football based one that provides this sort of service. There’s been several Horse Racing ones (most notably the much missed Adrian Massey database) but I’ve not found anything like this for football. My initial reaction was to be a little sceptical as the first version of this only had provision for straight Win/Draw/Lose bets and I’m not really convinced that a purely systemic approach is possible with those bets. Football is so popular and the bookie prices so tight that I think it’s next to impossible to make a system with set criteria profitable long term. For example, it’s easy to find a team that nearly always wins at home when playing a team from lower down the league, the problem is that everyone knows that including the bookie so the price is extremely low and the odd losing run will wipe out any profit. So in my opinion, that sort of market is far more suited to a form reading approach than a set criteria systemic approach.

I was much more encouraged when they added the whole raft of new betting markets to try out earlier this week. There’s definitely more juice to be had in some of those and there’s many different ways to look at the results you get from a report.

The real benefit of his service is in trying out these markets using different approaches. You can even separate Home and Away games once you have your back tested results.

The vast majority of my own betting activities revolve around trading rather than outright betting. This site can even help you with that. The approach I’m most keen on at the moment sort of turns the site’s aims on its head. I decided to try out a system to find Draws, my first attempt to find a backing system was utterly woeful and racked up a massive loss and pitiful strike rate over the last few seasons. Disaster? Hell No, a brilliant way to find a SHORTLIST of games to Lay The Draw trade. Obviously, you can’t take the exact figures that the site provided for this test as a realistic return for LTD trading as exchange prices are higher and you have to pay commission but with only 1 in 9 of my tested games ending in a draw I can attack the trade with more confidence.

That’s just one quick idea I fell into, there’s so much to play with and adjust to suit your own betting style. The owners have said that they will be making improvements as they go along, making criteria more flexible and easier to tailor to various approaches.

I put the word “Shortlist” in bold as I think that’s where this site’s treasure lays for me. I won’t be blindly following any of the selections it finds for me, no matter how good the Strike Rate and ROI it shows. But I will be happily using them as a shortlist to study in much greater detail and will be delighted to have the most boring and longwinded, time consuming part of the job done for me.

You can just log in as a demo user without needing to download or sign up to anything to try out the basic version, use most of the features including the pretty extensive HELP section at the top to get you going, all for free. But I do think that, once you’ve tried it out and can see the potential, the subscription of £10 a month is stupidly good value. This is certainly going in the APPROVED pile for me.

If you like to take a logical approach to finding your bets and can make sure you know the difference between Back Testing and Back Fitting (ie, only use filters with a sensible reason behind them rather than just putting whatever makes the bottom line look better), then this one really is a No-Brainer. Honestly think you’d be daft not to have a free play around with this, if any of the above sounds even slightly interesting.Approved2

TRY THE DEMO HERE

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October 23, 2013

Goal Market Profits

FINAL  REVIEW & VERDICT

I have just finished the one month free trial offered by this service.

They had been proofing their selections to a betting club for two months prior to going live to the general public and had recorded a profit of 180 points in that period.

Our trial got off to a good start and made good money but sadly the performance could not be maintained. They recommend a starting bank of 200 points but also say that anyone risk adverse should use a 300 point bank. I decided to start at the mid point and went for a 250 point kitty.

By the end of the trial that 250 had been reduced to 92.18 points. That figure is arrived at using the prices the service quoted, which I did find to be accurate for the majority of bets. My own record shows a slightly larger loss (bank ended on 89.42) using actual prices I found as I checked the bets.

The customer service experience started off being extremely good but did tail off as the performance slumped. At the beginning of the trial there were daily updates made to their website and plenty of comments and questions being made and answered, however these stopped as the bank dwindled. Obviously I would not expect them to publish and respond to every comment made as no doubt they had their fair share of foul mouthed abuse thrown at them as the losing run continued but I would have expected them to keep the records up to date and to have published and responded to reasonably worded questions and comments.

I do think that the results they recorded during their initial trial are genuine. They fit the style and pattern used during our live trial and I have not received and comments stating that those figures were manipulated in any way. So I’m willing to accept they did make they profit they claimed during that period.

It has to be said that anyone who was on board from day one of their testing period (11th July) would still be in profit but once you take on board any fees you would have paid, had they been charging their usual rate, then that profit is wiped out and a loss incurred over the period 11th July to 20th October.

I decided against extending the live trial to a second or even third month as I feel that even if the bank was partially recovered over the next month or so, I would be unlikely to able to recommend it to readers given the wild roller coaster style peaks and troughs. The strike rate and average odds recorded during my trial do not instill much confidence of long term success.

As usual, I will publish my spreadsheet of results showing all stats on the far right hand side.

I recommend this service be filed under FAILED.

GOAL MARKET PROFITS SPREADSHEET OF RESULTSFailed

You can try Goal Market Profits here:

http://www.cash-master.com/GoalMarketProfits.php

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October 20, 2013

Goal Market Profits

We head to Denmark on Sunday and the match between Vestsjaelland and Esbjerg.  These teams met last month and Esbjerg won the match 3-1.  Esbjerg have scored in every competitive match this season (16 games in league, cup and Europe) but arrive on the back of two defeats.  The home team Vestsjaelland have made a decent effort after a sluggish start with a home win against second place Aalborg and a draw away to league leaders Midtjylland.  Both teams to score is a decent price given Esbjergs scoring exploits this season.

10pt win with BetVictor

Danish Superliga (KO 3.00pm)

v Esbjerg both teams to score @3/4 (1.75)

Bet365 are 8/11 and a few firms are 7/10.

Also in Denmark, both teams to score looks a good bet in the match-up between FC Copenhagen and Aalborg.  This bet has paid out in all 7 of Copenhagens home matches and in 12 of the 14 matches they have played this season.  Verona have made a great start to life in Serie A with 4 wins, a draw and 2 defeats (to Juventus and Roma).  Only Roma have prevented them from scoring this term.  Parma arrive on the back of three cracking matches with wins over Atalanta (4-3) and Sassuolo (3-1) and a draw with Fiorentina (2-2).  Both sides have the firepower to find the net here.

5pt double with Ladbrokes @1.92/1 (2.92)

Verona v Parma (Italy Serie A KO 2.00pm) both teams to score @3/4 (1.75)

FC Copenhagen v Aalborg (Danish Superliga KO 3.00pm) both teams to score @4/6 (1.67)

BetVictor are next best at 2.89

Vestsjaelland bet WON +7.5

Verona/Copenhagen bet LOST -5

 

END OF TEST P/L  -157.82

I’ll be giving my final verdict shortly. Not much of a cliffhanger though, is it.

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October 19, 2013

Goal Market Profits

Sunderland visit Swansea on Saturday and I am backing both teams to score.  Despite their dire start to the season, Sunderland have only been held goalless in 2 of their 9 competitive games and have scored against Liverpool, Man Utd and Arsenal this season.  Swansea are a decent side and should also get on the scoresheet against the Premierships leakiest defence.

10pt win with BetVictor, William Hill and Ladbrokes

English Premier League (KO 3.00pm)

Swansea v Sunderland both teams to score @10/11 (1.91)

In the Championship, both Barnsley and Middlesbrough have struggled all season to keep a clean sheet between them.  With Barnsleys matches averaging 3.5 goals per game and Middlesbroughs averaging 3.2, then the 5/6 for over 2.5 goals looks worth a bet.  Ipswich and Burnley meet in a game between two of the highest scoring teams in the league.  Ipswich have scored in all their home games this season and Burnley are on a great run of 6 straight wins.  Both teams to score is the second leg of the double.

5pt double with BetVictor @2.17/1 (3.17)

Barnsley v Middlesbrough (English Championship KO 3.00pm) over 2.5 goals @5/6 (1.83)

Ipswich v Burnley (English Championship KO 3.00pm) both teams to score @8/11 (1.73)

Bet365 are next best at 2.92

 

Both Bets Lost -15

RUNNING P/L -160.32 points

Tomorrow will be the last day of my trial and I see little point extending it.

Another reminder to keep a check on your Paypal due date.

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October 18, 2013

Goal Market Profits

One bet for Friday and that is from France Ligue 2.  Chateauroux have a fairly solid home record of P5 W2 D2 L1, scoring 10 goals and conceding 9, the one blip being a 4-0 home defeat to Tours.  In the other 4 matches they have scored an average of 2.5 goals per game.  Visitors Caen make this bet as their away form this season points to an entertaining game.  Away from home their 5 league games this season have finished 1-2, 2-2, 2-3, 1-2 and 2-1.  Both teams to score looks a good bet.

10pt win with BetVictor

France Ligue 2 (KO 7.00pm)

Chateauroux v Caen both teams to score @5/6 (1.83)

Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes are all 4/5 (1.8)

 

Bet Lost -10

RUNNING P/L -145.32 POINTS

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