From the category archives:


October 3, 2013

Goal Market Profits

Thursday’s NAP comes from the Europa League and the match between Seville and Freiburg.  Seville have been in terrific goal scoring form netting 18 goals at home in just 5 games.  Their 10 matches this year have averaged 3.7 goals per game.  Visitors Freiburg’s 10 matches are averaging 3.2 goals per game and their last away matches have seen 5, 3, 6 and 4 goals.  Over 2.5 goals looks a solid bet and the 7/10 available represents a bit of value.

10pt win with Ladbrokes or Sportingbet

Europa League (KO 6.00pm)

Seville v Freiburg over 2.5 goals @7/10 (1.7) LOST (2-0) -10pts

Staying in the Europa League, Ebsjerg and Salzburg meet in a game between two very attack minded sides.  Salzburg warmed up with an 8-1 home league win at the weekend and have scored in all 17 matches they have played this year.  Ebsjerg from Denmark are equally impressive, recording wins of 4-1 and 7-1 prior to Thursday’s match.  They too have scored in all of their games this season (14 matches).  Over 2.5 goals looks on the cards.  Finally a trip to the Danish NordicBet Ligaen.  Hobro sit top of the over 2.5 table, with 8 of their 10 games seeing 3 goals or more.  They visit Fredericia who’s five home games are averaging over 4.2 goals per game.  Again, over 2.5 goals looks a good bet.

5pt double with Ladbrokes @1.89/1 (2.89)

Ebsjerg v Salzburg over 2.5 goals (Europa League KO 8.05pm) over 2.5 goals @8/11 (1.73) WON (1-2)

Fredericia v Hobro (Denmark NordicBet Ligaen KO 5.30pm) over 2.5 goals @4/6 (1.67) WON (3-0) +9.45pts

Next best are BetVictor @2.85 and Stan James @2.80.

Daily P/L -0.55pts

Running P/L -27.28pts

Filed under Football by Liam


October 3, 2013

Goal Market Profits

One that might have slipped under the radar on Wednesday is the Portugese Segunda Liga match between Tondela and Sporting B.  Sporting B have the worst away record in the league; P4 W0 D0 L4 (goals scored 0, goals conceded 8).  Hosts Tondela have played 12 matches in all competitions this season and have scored in all of them.  Their recent scoring run reads 2, 5, 2, 2, 2, 1, 2, 2, 2.  It’s 13/10 with Sportingbet they grab two or more against Sporting B and that looks cracking value in the context of those figures.

10pt win with Sportingbet

Portugal Segunda Liga (KO 4.00pm)

Tondela v Sporting B total home goals over 1.5 @13/10 (2.3) – the only other bookmaker offering this market is Coral @6/4 but we have had no luck with them keeping the markets open on this type of bet.

Another side who look overpriced to score at home are Shaktar Donetsk against Manchester Utd.  United have conceded in all three of their away games this season and looked decidedly shaky at the back against WBA at the weekend, conceding another two.  Shaktar are no mugs at home and, having been to Real Sociedad in the first round of fixtures and scored twice, the 6/4 looks too big for them to repeat that dose against a shaky looking United defence.  In the German 3 Liga, Dortmund II have scored in each of their 4 home games and 3 out of the 4 have paid out for both teams to score.  Visitors Darmstadt have scored in 4 and conceded in 3 of their 5 away matches.  Both teams to score looks a good bet @10/11.

5pt double with Stan James @3.58/1 (4.58)

Shaktar Donetsk v Man Utd (Champions League KO 7.45pm) total home goals over 1.5 @6/4 (2.5)

Dortmund II v Darmstadt (German 3 Liga KO 6.00pm) both teams to score @10/11 (1.91)

This is a standout price with Stan James.  The nearest to it is 4.14 with BWin.



For some reason Nick has not updated this post with the results as he usually does, this is where we stand at the moment:

Daily P/L (Day 13) -15pts

Running P/L -26.72pt


*note: he did update himself later that day


Filed under Football by Liam


October 2, 2013

Goal Market Profits

Tuesday’s NAP comes from the English Championship and the game between Blackpool and Bolton.  Both these sides are not shy in front of goal and Bolton’s defence is the third worst in the league.  Their away matches this year have featured 4, 5, 2, 3, 4 and 2 goals.  Blackpool have found the net in all their league matches this season (9 games).  Their last 4 matches have produced 2, 4, 4 and 3 goals.  Bolton need the points badly so I doubt they will park the bus and when these teams met last year both games finished 2-2.  The 5/6 for over 2.5 goals looks a good price but at 85/40 I’m happy to back the over 3.5 goals.

10pt win with BetVictor

English Championship (KO 8.00pm)

Blackpool v Bolton over 3.5 goals @85/40 (3.13) – alternately take the 2/1 (3.0) which is generally available. LOST (0-0) -10pts

Another game that looks set up for goals is the match between Brighton and Sheffield Wednesday.  Wednesday have not kept a clean sheet all season and all 5 of their away games have seen both teams scoring with the matches finishing 1-4, 1-1, 1-1, 1-2, 1-2.  Brighton have struggled on their travels but are a good side at home scoring in all their matches.  Over 2.5 goals looks overpriced at 11/10.  In Brazil’s Serie B two form teams go head-to-head and I fancy both to get on the scoresheet.  Icasa have won 4 out of 5 away from home, scoring in all 5 and a total of 9 goals.  They travel to Ceara who have scored in 14 straight home matches.  Both teams to score at 3/4 looks a good bet.

5pt double with Ladbrokes @2.68/1 (3.68)

Brighton v Sheffield Wednesday (English Campionship KO 7.45pm) over 2.5 goals @11/10 (2.1) LOST (1-1)

Ceara v Icasa (Brazil Serie B KO 11.30pm) both teams to score @3/4 (1.75) LOST (1-0) -5pts

Alternately take this double with Betfred/ PaddyPower/ Boylesports/ Bwin/ Stan James who all go 3.42 or better.

Daily P/L (Day 12) -15pts

Running P/L -11.72pt

Filed under Football by Liam


September 30, 2013

Goal Market Profits

We are off to Russia for Monday’s bets. Lokomotiv Moscow are the form team in Russia, winning 6 of their last 7 and scoring plenty of goals in the process.  They have scored in every one of their 10 league matches this season, on 6 occasions netting two or more.  I will be very surprised if Tomsk can hold them at bay given they have conceded 9 goals in their 5 away matches.  8 of Lokomotiv’s 10 games have gone over 2.5 goals and 7 of Tomsk’s 10 games have also broken the 2.5 goal barrier.  With over 2.5 goals as low as 3/4 in places, the standout 10/11 looks well worth taking.

10pt win with William Hill or Ladbrokes

Russian Premier League (KO 3.15pm)

Lokomotiv Moscow v Tomsk over 2.5 goals @10/11 (1.91) LOST (0-0) -10pts

At first glance you would expect FK Rostov to see off bottom club Ural comfortably.  However their current form reads P5 W1 L4.  The goal stats for those 5 matches read: Scored 1 Conceded 12.  Ural are rock bottom of the league but appear to play better away from home (W1 D1 L1) scoring 5 goals in the process.  It’s 4/7 for Ural to grab a goal here but a massive 3/1 they get two, which is something they have managed in two of their three away games.  Rostov could easily bounce back to form and thrash them but that price is worth a speculative bet to small stakes.

3pt longshot

Russian Premier League (KO 5.30pm)

FK Rostov v Ural total away goals over 1.5 @3/1 (4.0) with Sportingbet – alternatively take the 14/5 (3.8) with 888Sport and Unibet or 11/4 (3.75) with Bet365.  LOST (1-1) -3pts

Daily P/L (Day 11) -13pts

Running P/L +3.27pts



Eek, pretty much all profit lost in 2 days. That’s the down side to football betting, the prices are always so low. Still, I’m keen on how Nick makes his picks and am confident it’ll turn round quickly. This service has been superb so far in terms of results and customers service and is still 3 points in profit anyway. I’m happy with how this is going.

Filed under Football by Liam


September 30, 2013

Gaffa Tips – Final Review

The review for Gaffa Tips started at the end of June. As a reminder this is a tipping service focused on football and golf. Selections are sent through by email one or two days ahead of the event. In terms of the service the focus has been on golf until the latter stages where the UK football season has stirred into life. The first few weeks started promisingly with steady profits being achieved. Unfortunately, the momentum was not maintained and at the end of the full review period the £1,000 starting bank is languishing at £791.18, a loss of £208.82 (20 points at £10 a point).

I did experience some problems in the early days with receiving selections (or more precisely not receiving selections) when I expected them. Contacting the site administrator did not always result in an immediate response and in fact on one week I didn’t receive any selections even after sending a notification email. So, my experience in terms of customer support has not always been a happy one.

Initially the selections were provided with quoted odds but with no indication of which bookmaker the odds were coming from. I queried this and later weeks included this information.

As a reviewer I have to base my findings on the service as provided to me. I assume that the same level of service is provided to all the membership so feel that there are definitely areas for improvement to be made.

The selections provided were clear in terms of the bet to be made and were generally received in good time for wagers to be placed.

The website does show results although currently they are only shown to the end of August. The losses shown for that month have continued in September. Looking back at the published results for the whole of 2013 it does seem that the review period was coming off the back of a very successful previous three months although in total it is probably at break-even or thereabouts.

My rating for Gaffa Tips is negative given the review period performance, performance for the year to date and finally the subscription charges that need to be added to the outgoings.

On a positive note, their published results are accurate.

You can try Gaffa Tips here:

Filed under Football,Golf by John Murphy


September 29, 2013

Golden Soccer Star

Final Review

G’day all.

We are now 2 months into the soccer season and I’ve decided to bring our trial of the Golden Soccer Star (GSS) system to a close. GSS did show a massive return in the 2011 – 12 season of 4600 points, but the 2012 – 13 season showed a return of 346 points on placing 5 bets per game and 396 points if you were placing 4 bets per game, a big difference between the two seasons and after 62 days of trialling the system we showed a loss of -385.5 points.

A quick recap, the system targets seven of the top leagues English Premier, Scottish Premier, German Bundesliga, French Liga 1, Italy Serie A, Spain’s Primera Division and the UEFA Champions League and using the criteria set out in the manual, which only uses two rules, we are able to obtain our selections, then we place five or four bets in the correct score market, one point for each bet making a total of four or five points per game selected. The idea of placing five or four bets per game is explained in the manual and you will have to decide the option that suits you the best. The selection process, finding the best odds and placing the bets can become quite tedious and time consuming as the system can throw up a large number of selections. After you purchase the system there is an option, for an additional payment, to have selections sent to you via email. This will definitely save you time, but remember you will also have to check for the best odds, to maximise any winning bets and then place your bets with each bookmaker, you will need accounts with most of the bookmakers that give you BOG and also TrioBet, who seem to give the best odds for the larger results.

The results below are for the period 23/07/2013 – 22/09/2013, a total of 62 days for the trial:

Total Number Of Selections: 139

Total Number Of points Staked: 695 (5 Points Per Game)

Total Number Of Winning Bets: 34

Strike Rate: 24.46%

Total Number Of Points Won: 309.5

Finishing Points Balance: - 385.5

At £2 a point, the total amount staked would be £1,390.00, with a return of £619.00, showing a loss of £771.00.


To make a profit with this system you need a number of the games you have selected to produce a big result that could give you a return of upto 1000/1, this can happen, as past result have shown on the venders website, but it only happens now and again. I think it would be impossible to actually predict that sort of outcome, so you will need plenty of games to bet on. The design of GSS is to try and hit those big winners.

If you decide to give GSS a go, make sure you have accounts with a number of the BOG bookmakers and all the accounts have suffient funds, you will need a large betting bank.

That brings me into which category do I place this system, after the results of the last two months I had intended to place it in the failed folder, but I do not believe that is fair to the system or it’s author, as a couple of decent wins could put you in a very high profit situation. I believe to give this type of system a proper trial you have to do it for the complete season, as the results for the last two seasons do show the system finished in profit, and for that reason I going to give Golden Soccer Star a “Neutral” rating.

You can get Golden Soccer Star here:

Filed under Football by Ken Dooley


September 29, 2013

Goal Market Profits

I’ve been keeping a close eye on the Swiss Challenge League and one team who have really impressed me is Schaffhausen.  They are second in the table and have some impressive goals stats, winning their last two games away from home by the score of 3-0.  They have scored 23 goals in their last 8 games and on Sunday they take on Wohlen, who are bottom of the league.  Wohlen have lost 5 of their last 6 league games including thumpings of 6-2, 5-2 and 4-1 away from home.  Schaffhausen won the reverse fixture 3-2 just 5 weeks ago and should win this one comfortably.  It’s just 1/2 for over 2.5 goals in this game but we can get 16/11 for Schaffhausen to score three or more and that looks a great price.

10pt win with 888Sport or Unibet

Swiss Challenge League – kick-off 3.00pm

Schaffhausen v Wohlen total home goals over 2.5 @16/11 (2.45) – alternatively take 11/8 (2.38) with Coral but I would not go any lower than this. LOST (2-2) -10pts

In Serie A, Juventus visit Torino having conceded one goal in each of their last 5 matches.  All 5 of those games paid out in the both teams to score market.  Torino have started well and have scored in all their matches bar a 2-0 away defeat to Atalanta.  They have scored exactly 2 goals in each of their 3 home league games so far this season and it would be no surprise for them to get another one here.  Both teams to score at Evens looks a fair price.  In Finland, MyPa visit TPS Turku having scored 11 times in their last 5 on the road.  The hosts can be forgiven a recent 3-0 home defeat against champions-elect HJK Helsinki and prior to that defeat they had found the net in 12 of 13 home matches.  I fancy both sides to score here.

5pt double with BetVictor @2.65/1 (3.65)

Torino v Juventus (Italy Serie A – KO 11.30am) both teams to score @21/20 LOST (0-1)

TPS Turku v MyPa (Finland  – KO 4.30pm) both teams to score @31/40 WON (2-1) -5pts

888Sport offer this double at the same price of 3.65, Boylesports are next best @3.50.

Daily P/L (Day 10) -15pts

Running total +16.27pts

Filed under Football by Liam


September 28, 2013

Goal Market Profits

Saturday’s NAP revolves around one team, Arsenal.  On Saturday they travel to Swansea defending a record that has seen them win 10 straight away games before their reserves were held 1-1 by WBA in midweek.  This season they have scored 3, 3, 3, 2 and 1 on their travels.  That includes two Champions League qualifiers, against Fenerbahce and Marseille.  Swansea are a good side but have conceded 4 against Man Utd and 2 against Liverpool at home so far this term.  Arsenal have scored exactly two goals in their last three visits to Swansea and anything above Evens is value for them to continue that run.

10pt win with Stan James

English Premiership – 5.30pm

Swansea v Arsenal total away goal over 1.5 @11/8 – alternatively take 11/10 with Ladbrokes which is still a touch of value given Arsenal’s away form. WON (1-2) +13.75pts

We stay in England for the double and we start with Crawley and Oldham.  Crawly have failed to score only once this season in 9 matches and three of their four home matches have gone over 2.5 goals.  Oldham’s away record reads 2-3, 1-2, 4-1, 1-2, 4-3.  Over 2.5 goals is the bet.  Cheltenham’s last 6 games read 2-4, 2-2, 2-2, 3-3, 1-4, 1-2 with both teams to score paying out in all their home games this season.  They host a decent Wimbledon side who sit third in the table.  Although a much better side at home, Wimbledon should find the net against a generous home defence.

5pt double with 888Sport or Unibet @2.19/1 (3.19)

Crawley v Oldham (League 1 – KO 3.00pm) over 2.5 goals @4/5 LOST (1-0)

Cheltenham v Wimbledon (League 2 – KO 3.00pm) both teams to score @10/13 LOST (1-0) -5pts

Skybet offer this double @3.11 and BetVictor @3.06 if you do not have accounts with either 888Sport or Unibet.

Daily P/L (Day 9) +8.75pts

Running total +31.27pts

Filed under Football by Liam


September 27, 2013

Goal Market Profits

We pay our first visit to Germany’s Bundesliga 2 on Friday evening. Cottbus’ 8 games have seen a massive 28 goals already this season with them scoring 14 and conceding 14.  Their 3 home games have produced wins of 5-1 and 4-0 and a 4-0 defeat. Bielefeld’s 8 games have produced 27 goals and they have scored 2, 2, 2, 2, and 3 goals in their last 5 games. Over 2.5 goals is a decent price at 5/6 given the stats of these two sides.

10pt win with 188Bet

German Bundesliga 2 – kick-off 5.30pm

Cottbus v Bielefeld  over 2.5 goals @5/6 (1.83) – alternatively take 4/5 (1.8) with Betfair Sportsbook/ B365/ Stan James/ BetVictor or Sportingbet. WON (4-2) +8.33pts

Back to France and Ligue 2. Istres let us down on Tuesday but I’m backing them to score at home against Troyes. The visitors have scored in all bar one match this year and banged in 3 against league leaders Angers on Tuesday. Both teams to score is the call. We will also back league leaders Angers to score at home to Tours but I don’t think they will have it all their own way. Tours are another side who have scored in all bar one match this season and again both teams to score looks a good bet.

5pt double with William Hill @2.65/1 (3.65)

French Ligue 2 – kick off 7.00pm

Istres v Troyes both teams to score @10/11 (1.91) LOST (0-2)

Angers v Tours both teams to score @10/11 (1.91) WON (1-1) -5pts

Next best price is with Ladbrokes @2.61/1 (3.61) and this double is available with Betfair for the exchange players.

Daily P/L (Day 8) +3.33pts

Running total +22.53pts

Filed under Football by Liam


September 27, 2013

Goal Market Profits

The following round up of the first week is taken straight from the service’s own members area but it matches my own records in every area, except the R.O.I where my own figure is actually a bit higher than Nick’s. I must say that I’m hugely impressed with this so far, not just because it’s well in profit (way too early to take much note of that) but mainly because of the insightful write ups and reasoning given for the bets placed and the interesting, open and honest comments being made and answered on a daily basis so far.

Fingers crossed that I haven’t just jinxed it.

Nick’s Week 1 Review:


Here is a quick look back at Week 1 of the free trial.

Bets 13 – Won 6 Lost 7.

P/L +19.2pts

6 NAPs – Won 4, Lost 2. +18.92pts

6 doubles – Won 2, Lost 4. +2.28pts

1 Longshots – Won 0, Lost 1. -2pts

Staked 92pts

Returned 111.2pts

ROI 17.27%

Thanks to your feedback, the selections now include the country and league, kick-off times, odds in fraction and decimals and last, but not least, some alternative quotes from bookmakers offering similar prices to the ones recommended.

Thanks to everyone who signed up for the free trial and I’m looking forward to week 2.

Filed under Football by Liam