From the category archives:

Football

October 16, 2013

Goal Market Profits

There are no bets for Thursday 17/10

I want use this post to remind anybody still following the trial to check their Paypal Payment date to make sure they remember to cancel in time, if they do not wish to remain with the service.

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October 16, 2013

Goal Market Profits

Back in Brazils Serie B its an early morning start on Wednesday (01.50am).  ABC sit in 16th place just above the relegation zone.  However they boast the best current form (P5 W5 D0 L0) and the third best form over the last 10 games (P10 W7 D0 L3).  They are unbeaten at home in 10 and that includes 6 straight victories at 3-2, 3-1, 2-0, 4-2, 2-1, 3-2.  Their latest victory was against runaway league leaders Palmeiras, winning 3-2 at home.  In contrast, Sao Caetano are struggling in the relegation places.  They have just 1 point from their last 10 away games, conceding 27 goals.  Over 2.5 goals is overpriced at 10/11 but I will take a punt on ABC to score 3 or more @14/5, given Sao Caetano are in such dire form and have conceded 3 or more in 5 of their last 10 away from home.

10pt win with Sportingbet

Brazil Serie B (KO 01.50hrs)

ABC v Sao Caetano total home goals over 2.5 @14/5 (3.8)

Next best are 888Sport and Unibet @11/4 (3.75)

Staying in Brazil on Thursday evening, the Serie A clash between Santos and Internacional is interesting.  Both these sides pretty much win, lose and draw in equal amounts.  Both Santos and Inter have kept just two clean sheets in 11 games but have also had little trouble scoring during that time.  Both teams to score is the bet.  In Japans Emperors Cup, J-League side Kashiwa have not won or kept a clean sheet in 8 matches.  They face a tricky tie against J2 side Okayama who are vastly improved and are scoring regularly (13 consecutive matches).  Again both teams to score is the bet.

5pt double with Ladbrokes @2.06/1 (3.06)

Santos v Internacional (Brazil Serie A KO 11.30pm) both teams to score @4/5 (1.8)

Kashiwa v Okayama (Japan Emperors Cup KO 11.00am) both teams to score @7/10 (1.7)

BetVictor are next best at 2.94

 

Both Bets Lost -15

RUNNING P/L  -135.32

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October 15, 2013

Goal Market Profits

Tuesday October 15th 2013

Russia U21 have a pretty impressive goals record at home and 13 of their last 14 home games have gone over 2.5 goals.  8 of those matches have gone over 3.5 goals, including the two recent games with Bulgaria U21 that finished 3-3 and 3-1.  Opponents Denmark arrive on the back of two 2-2 draws with Slovenia U21 and wins of 6-0 and 4-1 against Andorra and Northern Ireland.  I was surprised to see over 2.5 goals priced up as high as 7/10 but it is Sportingbet’s 9/5 for over 3.5 goals that really stands out given this outcome is as low as 6/4 elsewhere.

10pt win with Sportingbet

Russia U21 v Denmark U21 (Euro U21 Qualifier KO 3.30pm) over 3.5 goals @9/5 (2.8)

BetVictor are next best at 17/10 (2.7)

If Bulgaria beat the Czechs on Tuesday then they qualify for the World Cup (unless Denmark put a cricket score past Malta).  The Czechs need to win by 2 goals or more and hope for a miracle in Denmark.  With the hosts destination in their own hands this game should open up with plenty of opportunities at either end.  The Czechs have scored in all their away games since an opening 0-0 draw with Denmark last year and Bulgaria have scored in all their home qualifiers.  We also head to Brazil on Tuesday and the Serie B match between two in-form sides in Chapecoense and Ceara.  Home side Chapecoense are in fine scoring form, netting 12 goals in their last 3 games.  9 of their last 12 home games have broken the over 2.5 goals barrier.  Visitors Ceara are also in decent form having scored in 15 consecutive matches and their last 4 away games have also broken the over 2.5 goals barrier.

5pt double with Ladbrokes @2.63/1 (3.63)

Chapecoense v Ceara (Brazil Serie B KO 11.30pm) over 2.5 goals @9/10 (1.9)

Bulgaria v Czech Republic (WC Qualifier KO 7.15pm) both teams to score @10/11 (1.91)

BetVictor are next best at 3.35

Both Bets Lost -15

RUNNING P/L -120.32 points

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October 14, 2013

Goal Market Profits

Not much action on Monday night but an interesting game in prospect between Switzerland U21 and Croatia U21.  The Swiss are favourites to win this but have just wins over Liechtenstein and Latvia this year.  Their previous games saw them lose several high scoring encounters to the likes of Portugal, Sweden and Germany.  Croatia have recent wins over Sweden and Ukraine (away) and look like a decent side.  Both teams to score looks a good bet at the available prices.

10pt win with Ladbrokes

Euro U21 Qualifier (KO 5.30pm)

Switzerland U21 v Croatia U21 both teams to score @3/4 (1.75)

Bet365 are next best at 8/11 (1.73)

Also on Monday night Belgium U21 host Italy U21.  Belgium U21 are unbeaten this year in 6 games and that includes a shock 3-1 win away to Mondays opponents Italy.  However you have to go all the way back to 2011 to find an Italy U21 side that failed to score and better is expected of them in this return fixture.  Both teams to score is the first leg of the double.  In Northern Ireland, Portadown and Glenavon are both averaging 4 goals a game through their first 10 matches and this fixture produced two 3-1 results back in March and April.  Over 2.5 goals makes the second leg of the double.

5pt double with Bet365 @1.68/1 (2.68)

Belgium U21 v Italy U21 (Euro U21 Qualifier KO 7.30pm) both teams to score @8/11 (1.73)

Portadown v Glenavon (Northern Ireland KO 7.45pm) over 2.5 goals 11/20 (1.55)

Ladbrokes are next best at 2.63.

 

Both Bets Lost -15 Points

RUNNING P/L  -105.32 POINTS

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October 13, 2013

Goal Market Profits

Sunday October 13th 2013

An early start in Japan with the Emperors Cup match between Shonan Bellmare and Ventforet Kofu.  Shonan have not kept a clean sheet at home against J League opposition this season.  9 of their last 12 home games have seen both teams scoring.  Kofu have managed to score in 11 straight away matches and in 10 of those the opposition also scored.  Both teams to score is generally 4/6 which makes the 3/4 on offer a bit of value.

10pt win with Ladbrokes

Japan Emperors Cup (KO 5.00am)

Shonan v Kofu both teams to score @3/4 (1.75)

BetVictor are next best at 7/10 (1.7)

 

In Brazil’s Serie A, Criciuma and Vasco meet in a relegation clash.  9 of Criciuma’s last 10 have seen them both scoring and conceding.  At home they have kept just one clean sheet in 11.  Visitors Vasco have found the net in 9 of their last 11 away visits and the reverse fixture finished 3-2 back in July.  Both teams to score looks a good bet.  In the Czech 1st Division, Karvina host Trinec and both teams to score looks overpriced.  Karvina have suffered a bit of a wobble recently with 3 defeats in their last 5 but have only once failed to score at home this season.  Trinec won’t find this easy but have won 5 of 7 away from home and have been shut out just once on their travels.

 

5pt double with 888Sport @2.14/1 (3.14)

MFK Karvina v Trinec (Czech Division 1 KO 3.00pm) both teams to score @ 9/10 (1.90)

Criciuma v Vasco (Brazil Serie A 8.00pm) both teams to score 11/17 (1.65)

Stan James and Bet365 are next best at 3.06, with Ladbrokes @3.02.

 

Shonan Bet Lost -10

Double Won +10.70

RUNNING P/L -90.32

 

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October 12, 2013

Goal Market Profits

Saturday October 12th 2013

The bookies have underestimated Dagenham & Redbridge this season and they are unbeaten in 7 with 5 wins and 2 draws.  At home they have won 5 and drawn 2, scoring in all those games and in 5 of them they scored two or more.  Cheltenham are struggling away from home with 5 defeats and a single win against rock bottom Accrington.  They have conceded more goals (21) than anyone in the division and those 5 away defeats all saw them conceding at least two goals.  Bury and Torquay both put 4 past them recently.  It’s 6/4 for Dagenham & Redbridge to get two or more on Saturday afternoon and that is value given Cheltenham’s poor away form.

 

10pt win with 888Sport and Unibet

 

English League 2 (KO 3.00pm)

 

Dagenham & Redbridge v Cheltenham total home goals over 1.5 goals @6/4 (2.5)

 

Bet365 and Coral are next best at 11/8 (2.38).

 

Another side who are overpriced to bag a couple of goals are Portsmouth who have done exactly that in all 5 of their away games in the league this year.  They travel to Plymouth who have lost 4 out of 5 and have conceded 2 or more in 5 of their last 7.  Fleetwood have only once failed to score this season in the 13 matches they have contested.  At home, 4 out of 5 games have seen both sides scoring.  Chesterfield have scored in all their away games and both teams to score looks a solid option.

 

5pt double with Bet365 @3.38/1 (4.38)

 

Plymouth v Portsmouth (English League 2 KO 12.15pm) total away goals over 1.5 @13/8 (2.63)

 

Fleetwood v Chesterfield (English League KO 3.00pm) both teams to score 4/6 (1.67)

Stan James go 4.33 and 888Sport and Unibet go 4.24 for this double

 

Both Bets Lost -15 points

RUNNING TOTAL -91.02 POINTS

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October 11, 2013

Goal Market Profits

Friday October 11th 2013

Lots of international action on Friday but our NAP comes from the Danish 1st division.  Home side Hvidovre won promotion last season and since then have been involved in plenty of high scoring games.  Since promotion their home record reads W3-2, L2-4, L1-4, W2-1, W4-0, D1-1, L1-2.  Visitors Vejle have a similar profile away from home with their away matches reading D3-3, L1-2, W3-2, L1-2, W9-0, D1-1, W2-1, W3-1.  Stan James offer a standout 8/11 for over 2.5 goals and that looks great value.

10pt win with Stan James

Denmark Division 1 (KO 5.30pm)

Hvidovre v Vejle over 2.5 goals @8/11 (1.73)

Bet365 are next best at 27/40 (1.68) and Betfair currently offer (1.72)

Greece and Slovakia look set to play out a low scoring affair on Friday.  Both teams have played 8 group games and both have identical records of 2 games over 2.5 goals and 6 under 2.5 goals.  When you consider both Latvia and Lithuania are in that group then that points to both defences being for more able than their respective attacks.  Serbia and Japan meet in a friendly and it’s Japan who make this bet.  Their last 9 games have featured a total of 40 goals, with Japan contributing 20 and conceding 20.  That bodes well for both teams to score against a Serbian side who themselves are no slouches in front of goal.

5pt double with BetVictor @1.85/1 (2.85)

Greece v Slovakia (World Cup Qualifier KO 7.45pm) under 2.5 goals @13/20 (1.65)

Serbia v Japan (International friendly 4.30pm) both teams to score 8/11 (1.73)

Boylesports are next best at 2.71

Hvidovre Bet won +7.30

Greece/Serbia Bet lost -5 points

RUNNING P/L  -79.02 points

 

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October 11, 2013

Goal Market Profits

Thursday October 10th 2013

It’s another early start on Thursday and another trip to Brazil, this time Serie A (KO moved to 11.30pm).  Portuguesa have won six in a row at home: W3-0, W4-0, W3-0, W2-0, W2-1, W4-2.  You have to go all the way back to December 2012 for the last time they failed to score at home so we can be fairly confident they will at least score in this.  Visitors Goias have conceded in 10 of their last 11 away from home and shipped 9 goals in their last 5.  Portuguesa are a shade over Evens to get 2 or more here and that rates a decent bet in the context of these statistics:

10pt win 888Sport or Unibet

Brazil Serie A (KO 11.30pm)

Portuguesa v Goias total home goals over 1.5 @17/16

Coral are 21/20 and Bet365 go Evens

 

Bet Lost -10pts

RUNNING P/L -81.32 POINTS

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October 11, 2013

Goal Market Profits

When this trial started Nick was updating results daily and I was reporting them here whilst keeping my own record of results to make sure they matched.

About a week ago Nick stopped updating them nightly, so I just kept the figures on the blog rolling from his last update. Yesterday he provided figures for the missing days and I found that I had a 15 point discrepancy. My loss figure was less than his. I went back over the week’s result and found that the difference occurred with the Nimes game that was postponed due to bad weather. That games was part of a 5 point Double Bet.

Nick has recorded that the games was void and noted in his figures the bet being settled on just the remaining fixture that won. The tricky bit is that the game was played the next day and Nimes won. I have not been placing these as real bets, I have been paper trading them and from experience I have found that if a game is called off, many bookies will keep the bet live for 7 days incase it is rescheduled as happened here. As it turned out Nimes won their game and so I settled it on paper as a full win double.

I have therefore adjusted the trial’s figures to reflect the fact that the game was void (Nick does place his bets, so would know for fact that it had been voided). The difference is not in his favour and the running loss is now -71.32 points before yesterday’s bet.

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October 9, 2013

Goal Market Profits

Tuesday October 8th and Wednesday October 9th 2013

Tuesday’s NAP comes from the game between Alfreton and Chester in the English Conference Premier.  Alfreton are enjoying an excellent season, one which has seen 10 of their 13 league games go over 2.5 goals and that includes 6 out of 7 at home.  Newly promoted Chester have struggled to win on their travels but they have not struggled to score with 5 of their 6 away games seeing 3 or more goals.  Over 2.5 goals is a best priced 7/10.

10pt win with Ladbrokes, Sportingbet or BetVictor

English Conference Premier (KO 7.45pm)

Alfreton v Chester over 2.5 goals @7/10 (1.7)

Also in the Conference, Braintree are on a decent run that has seen them win their last 4 games, scoring exactly 3 goals in each of their last 3 games.  Welling are also in decent form, winning 3 and drawing 2 from their last 6.  They have scored in all of their away games this year which makes both teams to score appealing.  Woking and Barnet are both averaging 3 goals a game through the first 13 league matches.  4 of Woking’s 6 home games and 5 of Barnet’s 7 away games have gone over 2.5 goals.  As low as 4/6 in places, BetVictor go 5/6 that this games has 3 or more goals and that looks good value.

5pt double with BetVictor or William Hill @2.17/1 (3.17)

Braintree v Welling (English Conference KO 7.45pm) both teams to score @8/11 (1.73)

Woking v Barnet (English Conference KO 7.45pm) over 2.5 goals @5/6 (1.83)

BWin @3.06, 888Sport and Unibet @3.04 and Bet365 @3.01 are the next best.

 

On Wednesday there is no worthwhile European football to speak of so we head to Brazil Serie B and a 01.50am kick off.  Avai’s last home matches have finished 2-1, 2-4, 3-1 and 2-2.  They have scored in 11 consecutive home matches and in 7 of their last 8 they scored at least 2 goals.  Visitors Sport Recife are in good form winning 5 of their last 6 league games and scoring in 5 of their last 7 on their travels.  Both teams to score is value at 4/5.

10pt win with Stan James

Brazil Serie B (KO 01.50am)

Avai v Sport Recife both teams to score @4/5 (1.8)

Ladbrokes are next best at 3/4 (1.75)

 

ALL BETS LOST -25 pts

RUNNING P/L -56.73 points

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