Day 32, 1/8/13
start balance : +£758.80
1.00 Kitzbuhel : Haase versus Brands : over 22.5 games : 1.94 with Marathon (average 1.85) : lost -£20.00
5.00 Kitzbuhel : Verdasco versus Garcia-Lopez : over 21.5 games : 1.95 with Pinnacle (average 1.85) : lost -£20.00
9.00 Kitzbuhel : Fish to beat Benneteau : 1.8 with Stan James (average 1.74) : won +£14.80
Daily P/L : -£25.20
End trial balance, level stakes : +£733.60
Svend start balance : £279.92
1.00 stake 5.67% of start bank : lost : -£56.70
5.00 stake 5.67% of start bank : lost -£56.70
9.00 stake 6.03% of start bank : won +£44.62
Svend P/L : -£68.78
Svend balance : £211.14
Day 31, 30/7/13
Start balance : +£761.00
2.00 Kitzbuhel : Bellucci versus Garcia-Lopez : over 22.5 games : 1.95 with Pinnacle (average 1.89) : won +£17.80
11.00 Washington : Goffin to beat Tomic : 2.52 with Marathon (average 2.4) : lost -£20.00
Daily P/L : -£2.20
End trial balance, level stakes : +£758.80
Svend start balance : £274.22
2.00 stake 5.55% of start bank : won +£49.40
11.00 stake 4.37% of start bank : lost -£43.70
Svend P/L : +£5.70
Svend balance : £279.92
No selections given for today
Saturday 2nd August
Romford 9.24 p.m. Trap 1 Advised @ 4/1 bet 2 points to win Losing bet so we are now at 6 points profit for August
While I was not able to watch the race, the Dog did go off at 7/2 as against the 4/1 advised. I was able to check that about an hour after the e.mail arrived and that time, 4/1 was available at 3 bookmakers, reinforcing the opinion that the prices advised are usually obtainable if able to see the advice soon enough
No kick and a punch to start this month, just a nice 8 point profit to start August off.
We were given 2 tips today – [plus some anti post which will be dealt with at the event) both at Hove yesterday evening August 1st
8.18 Trap 1 Bet 4 points to win @ 5/2 which it duly did ! So plus 10 points. The Industry SP was 5/4 and I was not able to check the odds available close to advice time nor watch the racing live
9.06 Trap 4 we were to bet 2 points @ 10/1. The dog was unplaced but I did manage to watch this.
Early Betfair price was 6.2 ( just over 5/1) so as with many of the Masters suggestions, if you get early prices, there are some trading opportunities, both tonights came into that category. The Betfair price moved a lot , into 8′s. back to 7′s, into 9;s then back again to 7′s finally reaching 10 before going off at 9.4 with some £46k matched on the race. The dog had an industry SP of 6/1, meaning the Betfair price was over 30% up
This does not contradict my observations in earlier posts that the disparity in Betfair to Industry odds is less in Open Races due to liquidity as in both cases it is more relevant to the lower priced animals where the money has been bet,
For example in this particular race there was a VERY hot favourite, it went off at 4/7 – the last time I noticed it on Betfair it had fallen from 2.02 to 1.7 and probably went down further ( I was watching the price of our dog) so the money was there.
Misguided money though, it came next to last, beaten by ours !!
Am still working through the various betting options, as my initial thoughts on place price ratios again appears to be dependant on liquidity.
The 40% figure I gave seems consistent at the bottom price range while it is typically turning out at 32 % or thereabouts on mid range and 20-25 % on the high pricers.
“Oh Ye of Little Faith”
We were just 0.2 of a second away from 110 points profit tonight, but instead we have had to make do with 17 points.
Out tipster gave us 2 one point straight win bets and a trixie on another 3 dogs
The 2 straight bets won, as did the first 2 of the 3 leg trixie. The last leg was a miserable 0.2 of a second behind the winner
All races at Nottingham this evening
7.34 Trap 3 @ 5/1 SP 7/2 BSP equivalent the same £47k matched
8.34 Trap 2 @ 6/1 SP 9/2 BSP equivalent 11/2 £54k matched
8.49 Trap 2 @ 5/2 SP 6/4 BSP equivalent 7/4 £49k matched
9.04 Trap 2 @ 9/4 SP 7/4 BSP equivalent 10/3 £86k matched
All the above 4 dogs won, then came the loser
9.19 Trap 3 @ 4/1 SP 3/1 BSP equivalent 7/2 £69k matched
Needless to say, a brilliant piece of tipping which, unless he throws lots of silly bets into the mix tomorrow, a good profit for the month is ensured
The sums matched in the open races continue to be at a level that takes away the discrepancy we experience with BAGS grade racing
It means that “layers” , if sticking to Open Races ,will not be at the level that makes laying dogs so difficult to profit from.
We just need to be able elimate the likely winners! Now THATS the way to make your next million
Day 30, 29/7/13
Start balance : £722.40
9.00 Washington : Stepanek to beat Johnson : 1.78 with Marathon (average 1.72) : won +£14.40
1.00 Washington : Kamke to beat Berankis : 2.33 with Marathon (average 2.21) : won +£24.20
Daily P/L : +£38.60
End trial balance, level stakes : +£761.00
Svend start balance : £172.82
9.00 stake 6.1% of start balance : won +£43.92
1.00 stake 4.75% of start balance : won +£57.48
Svend P/L : +£101.40
Svend balance : £274.22
Day 29, 28/7/13
Start balance : +£727.80
7.15 Umag : Fognini to beat Robredo : 1.65 with 5Dimes (average 1.59) : lost -£20.00
8.00 Atlanta : Isner versus Anderson : over 25.5 games : 1.75 with Pinnacle (average 1.73) : won +£14.60
Daily P/L : -£5.40
End trial balance : +£722.40
Svend start balance : £194.52
7.15 stake 6.6% of start bank : lost -£66.00
8.00 stake 6.07% of start bank : won +£44.31
Svend daily P/L : -£21.69
Svend balance : £172.82
Monday 29th July
There are no selections for today but it is likely we have action tomorrow, Tuesday
Sunday 28th July 2013
Well, we got back yesterdays loss .
One selection, Henlow 8.15 Trap 6 Bet 4 points to win at 5/2
Dog won so we got back 10 points
Now, I had the option of watching the race or the saddo’s on Top Gear. No Brainer
So, I can tell you the Industry SP was 6/4 while the last price shown on Betfair 2.52 providing support to my previous observation that at these higher price matched open races (£20,100 on this one) the Betfair price is a true reflection.
15 minutes prior to the off it was also 2.52 – with a total of only £80 matched – went to 2.6 at which I backed it with the idea of a trade. But the nearest dog was in the 4′s, double our dog’s price, so I left the bet on as it would have been the skinniest of a scalp.
I also bet on the place market at 1.62 , a fabulous value bet of 40% of the win price.
So my viewing decision really was a no brainer
As to the price advised, I looked on oddschecker some 65 minutes after his e.mail and best available was 2/1 and generally 7/4. So, once again, I believe the price advised probably is always available, but is pot luck whether you see the advice in time