Monday 17th November
No Selections
Tuesday 18th November
12:50 Southwell - Shadow Bay - £52 @ 2.10 - LOST (-52.00)
13:10 Folkestone - Medermit - £46 @ 1.80 - WON (+36.80)
Wednesday 19th November
13:40 Hexham - Joe’s A Boy - £50 @ 1.50 - LOST (-50.00)
Starting Bank: £500.00
Current Bank: £451.30
Profit/Loss: £-48.70
A quick update on the past few days - as you can see, it remains very quiet!
Friday 14th November
No Selections
Saturday 15th November
No Selections
Sunday 16th November
No Selections
Starting Bank: £500.00
Current Bank: £516.50
Profit/Loss: £16.50
Thursday 13th November
No Selections
Starting Bank: £500.00
Current Bank: £516.50
Profit/Loss: £16.50
I’m back with another backing system to review this month - The Sharp End.
The Sharp End is another publication from Sportsworld Publishing. I don’t know what it is with these guys but, just like the CashBooster system, the manual appears to be somewhat unfinished, with references to examples and pages that just don’t exist! Once again, as a starting point, it fails to fill me with any confidence.
However, the system itself is very simple. It requires a copy of The Racing Post (the newspaper this time, not the web site!) and checks take only a couple of minutes. As with the CashBooster system, I suspect that it will throw up only a handful of selections during the trial period, as it seems fairly selective.
I am in the process of determining whether it is possible to determine the necessary information from the Racing Post web site (thereby saving the £1.60 daily cost of the newspaper).
The recommended staking is 10% of the bank. For the trial, I will work with a bank of £500 and will adjust my stake at the start of each day.
Here are the results for the past three days:
Monday 10th November
No Selections
Tuesday 11th November
14:00 Lingfield - Charity Lane - £50.00 @ 1.33 - WON (+16.50)
Wednesday 12th November
No Selections
Starting Bank: £500.00
Current Bank: £516.50
Profit/Loss: £16.50
It’s been such a long time since I posted an update on the CashBooster system that I bet that you have all forgotten about it!
To be honest, I got so demoralised at not finding a single selection in the first two weeks of the trial that I put the whole thing on the back burner. However, an update is long overdue, so I will trawl through my records for the past few weeks and work out what the selections would have been.
Look out for an update in the next day or two.
The First Past The Post system is a horse backing system that works by comparing data from two readily accessible web sites.
The system comes as a 10 page eBook, which lays out the method in an easy to follow manner. The system requires access to both the Racing Post website (www.racingpost.co.uk) and the Betfair Timeform website (form.horseracing.betfair.com). Determining the initial daily selections takes no more than 5-10 minutes and can be completed at any time prior to racing - a boon for those that go off to work early, as the selections can be made the night before.
Bets are placed at Betfair SP (BSP). When betting at BSP, it is possible to specify the minimum acceptable odds for a qualifying bet. The eBook suggests a minimum odds value of 4.0, which reduces the number of qualifying bets significantly. A second option with lower minimum odds is also shown in the eBook for those people that prefer a higher strike rate.
By betting at Betfair SP, the return can be significantly more than standard SP, as Betfair SP does seem to be higher than standard SP in most cases.
For staking purposes I followed the recommended staking plan in the eBook. Stakes were set to 2% of the bank taken at the start of each day, and then recalculated after the day’s racing in readiness for the next day. For the trial, I started with a bank of £500, making the initial stake £10.00 per race. The strike rate was expected to be around 18%.
The trial of the First Past The Post system lasted just over 1 month. During that time, there were 496 potential selections. Of those 496, 30 became non-runners and only 262 met the required odds criteria and led to betting opportunities. The trial provided a steady stream of winners - with the bonus of an occasional winner at high odds. At the end of the trial, the system had produced a profit of £151.85 (strike rate: 21.4%; ROI: 5.12%).
With the reduced odds, there were 466 betting opportunities, producing a profit of £48.57 (strike rate: 27.9%; ROI: 1.06%) - which backs up the claim in the eBook that it is better to operate at the higher odds cut-off.
I found the system very easy to use and it was pleasing to see that I could make my selections the night before racing rather than having to monitor the live markets. I’m not convinced that the system is based on any real science, but you can’t argue with a strike rate of 21.4% and an overall profit of £151.85, against a starting stake of only £10. If the strike rate can be maintained over a long period of time, and coupled with the occasional winner at high odds, it seems that this system could produce a reasonable return. I would stick to the higher recommended cut-off on the odds, as the ROI on the secondary system is not worthwhile.
Overall the First Past The Post system receives a qualified thumbs up.
You can get First Past The Post here:
http://www.first-past-the-post.co.uk/cashmaster.htm
Friday 24th October 2008:
System 1:
13:50 Doncaster
Roman Republic vs Dream Win
Bet: £7.74
Winner: Roman Republic
Profit: £5.00
18:50 Wolverhampton
Without Prejudice vs Alexander Huricane
Bet: £7.41
Winner: Alexander Huricane
Loss: £7.41
19:20 Wolverhampton
Fulham Broadway vs Nemorosa
Bet: £23.75
Winner: Fulham Broadway
Profit: £12.41
Bank Brought Forward: £167.23
Profit/Loss: £10.00
Current Bank: £177.23
Current Overall Loss: £82.77
System 2: 18:50 Wolverhampton
Without Prejudice vs Alexander Huricane
Bet: £7.41
Winner: Alexander Huricane
Loss: £7.41
19:20 Wolverhampton
Fulham Broadway vs Nemorosa
Bet: £23.75
Winner: Fulham Broadway
Profit: £12.41
Bank Brought Forward: £95.32
Profit/Loss: £5.00
Current Bank: £100.32
Current Overall Loss: £149.68
Well that is the end of the test for 50-50 Racing. During the next few days, I will go over the results for following the system to the letter, to see how that compares to the adjustment that I originally made, which will then make up my final review for the system.
A bit of a beleaguered card today, but the system ended the trial with a final flourish. I’ll write up my findings over the weekend.
Results for Friday 24th October
Bank brought forward: £610.21
Daily stake: £12.20
13:50 Doncaster - Dream Win - LOST (-12.20)
14:20 Doncaster - Leocorno - WON (+78.23)
14:55 Doncaster - Hunterview - LOST (-12.20)
16:40 Doncaster - Offshore Anna - LOST (-12.20)
Today’s P/L: £41.63
Bank: £651.85
Overall profit for the trial: £151.85
The penultimate day of our test. As expected, we dropped back from the heights of yesterday, with a day full of losing bets.
Results for Thursday 23rd October
Bank brought forward: £709.54
Daily stake: £14.19
14:30 Brighton - Amber Sunset - LOST (-14.19)
15:05 Brighton - Rocker - LOST (-14.19)
15:15 Carlisle - Thai Vango - LOST (-14.19)
15:25 Ludlow - Three Lions - LOST (-14.19)
16:05 Brighton - Personify - LOST (-14.19)
16:50 Carlisle - Alto Stratus - LOST (-14.19)
17:00 Ludlow - My Condor - LOST (-14.19)
Today’s P/L: £-99.33
Bank: £610.21
System 1:
15:05 Brighton
Bonnie Prince Blue vs Mango Music
Bet: £5.78
Winner: Mango Music
Loss: £5.78
15:15 Carlisle
Teenando vs Rosie All Over
Bet: £16.45
Winner: Teenando
Profit: £10.78
20:50 Great Leighs
Mazarus vs Pink Ivory
Bet: £2.06
Winner: Pink Ivory
Profit: £5.00
Bank Brought Forward: £157.23
Profit/Loss: £10.00
Current Bank: £167.23
Current Overall Loss: £82.77
System 2:
15:15 Carlisle
Teenando vs Rosie All Over
Bet: £2.19
Winner: Teenando
Profit: £4.99
21:20 Great Leighs
Wikaala vs Red Expresso
Bet: £2.53
Winner: Red Expresso
Profit: £5.00
Bank Brought Forward: £85.33
Profit/Loss: £9.99
Current Bank: £95.32
Current Overall Loss: £154.68
As I have now been running the test for five whole weeks, today is the penultimate day of the test. Whilst both banks are down, during my review of the system, I will also be looking at what would have happened to the banks had I followed the system precisely to the letter.
