From the category archives:

Laying

November 18, 2012

System Lays – Phantom Lays

Later than I would have liked, but this brings Phantom Lays results up to date.

Auto mode using the live market has been performing poorly – the bank has been hovering below £400 and dipped to £350.  With just over a month until the end of the trial it would take a  dramatic recovery to get into profit.  Consequently, I am no longer reporting these results for each day but I am keeping an eye on them and will provide a summary at the end of the trial.

As I’ve mentioned before, I am not using the recommended software and my results will differ, possibly substantially, from the “official” method.  I have noticed that on a number of occasions my bets have been matched in the live market, but the selection has not qualified at BSP.  Therefore, as these selections have a nasty habit of winning their races, in auto mode losses in the live market are likely to be higher that at BSP.

 

RESULTS: Mon 05  November

Manual mode – results to BSP

14:25   Plum     Beware Chalk Pit £20 @ 3.17 = £19.00  PROFIT

15:10   Kemp   Kumbeshwar £10 @ 2.88 = £9.50  PROFIT

15:30   Plum     Truckers Benefit £20 @ 3.83 = £19.00  PROFIT

15:45   Kemp   Firm Order (Odds too high)

 

Daily P/L: £47.50

Current P/L: £26.10

Current bank: £1026.10

 

RESULTS: Tues 06  November

Manual mode – results to BSP

13:30   Red      Nant Saeson (Odds too high)

14:50   Exe      Cue Card £10 @ 1.97 = -£9.70  LOSS

15:00   Red      Arley Hall £10 @ 2.73 = -£17.30  LOSS

15:55   Punch   Pollywollydoodle £10 @ 3.77 = £9.50  PROFIT

 

Daily P/L: -£17.50

Current P/L: £8.60

Current bank: £1008.60

 

RESULTS: Weds 07  November

Manual mode – results to BSP

13:10   Nott     Blue Lotus (Odds too high)

13:20   War     Full Ov Beans (Odds too high)

15:30   War     Kilcascan (Odds too high)

15:40   Chep    Desperate Dex (Odds too high)

16:15   Chep    Noble Perk £20 @ 3.10 = £19.00  PROFIT

 

Daily P/L: £19.00

Current P/L: £27.60

Current bank: £1027.60

 

RESULTS: Thurs 08  November

Manual mode – results to BSP

13:25   Thurl    Roi Du Mee £10 @ 1.93 = -£9.30  LOSS

14:50   Towc   Arctic Echo (Odds too high)

17:50   Wolv    Squad (Odds too high)

19:20   Wolv    Layali Dubai £20 @ 3.70 = -£54.00  LOSS

 

Daily P/L: -£63.30

Current P/L: -£35.70

Current bank: £964.30

 

RESULTS: Fri 09  November

Manual mode – results to BSP

13:00   Hex      Spear Thistle  (Odds too high)

14:00   Hex      Livvy Inn  £20 @ 3.43 = -£48.60  LOSS

14:10   Font     Quaddick Lake  £20 @ 2.08 = £19.00  PROFIT

14:40   Font     Venetian Lad  £10 @ 1.86 = £9.50  PROFIT

15:10   Font     Overlay  £10 @ 2.94 = -£19.40  LOSS

15:30   Hex      Dodge The Bullet (Odds too high)

15:40   Font     Terra Bleu  £10 @ 2.54 = £9.50  PROFIT

 

Daily P/L: -£30

Current P/L: -£65.70

Current bank: £934.30

 

RESULTS: Sat 10  November

Manual mode – results to BSP

13:00   Kelso   Twice Lucky 1

14:25   Sand    Niceonefrankie 2

14:45   Naas    Like Your Style 2

15:15   Kelso   Another For Joe 2

 

Daily P/L: -£30

Current P/L: -£65.70

Current bank: £934.30

 

RESULTS: Sun 11  November

Manual mode – results to BSP

13:15   Navan  Sizing Rio £20 @ 1.81 = -£16.20  LOSS

13:45   Navan  Voler La Vedette £10 @ 1.13 = £9.50  PROFIT

14:00   FfosL   Anay Turge (Odds too high)

14:15   MktR   Alpine Breeze (Odds too high)

14:45   MktR   I’m The Decider (Odds too high)

15:05   FfosL   Weekend Millionair (Odds too high)

15:40   FfosL   Fishoutofwater (Non runner)

15:45   Lim      Dancing Tornado (Odds too high)

15:50   MktR   Artisan £10 @ 3.35 = £9.50  PROFIT

 

Daily P/L: £2.80

Current P/L: -£62.90

Current bank: £937.10

 

RESULTS: Mon 12  November

Manual mode – results to BSP

12:40   South   Tornade D’estruval £10 @ 3.01 = £9.50  PROFIT

12:50   Carl      Tipsy Dara £10 @ 3.90 = £9.50  PROFIT

14:25   Carl      Across The Bay £10 @ 1.97 = -£9.70  LOSS

15:20   South   Liberate £10 @ 2.14 = £9.50  PROFIT

 

Daily P/L: £18.80

Current P/L: -£44.10

Current bank: £955.90

 

RESULTS: Tues 13  November

Manual mode – results to BSP

13:40   Hunt     Lord Tomnoddy (Non runner)

14:20   Sedg    Alpha One £10 @ 3.61 = -£26.10

14:30   Ling      Miss Exhibitionist (Odds too high)

15:00   Ling      Lord Singer (Odds too high)

15:30   Ling      Bonoman (Non runner)

 

Daily P/L: -£26.10

Current P/L: -£70.20

Current bank: £929.80

 

RESULTS: Weds 14 November

Manual mode – results to BSP

14:35   Down   Whisky Galore (Odds too high)

15:05   Down   Jetson £20 @ 1.74 = -£14.80  LOSS

16:25   Kemp   Renegotiate £10 @ 2.12 = £9.50  PROFIT

 

Daily P/L: -£5.30

Current P/L: -£75.50

Current bank: £924.50

 

RESULTS: Thurs 15 November

Manual mode – results to BSP

13:25   Clon     Chu Chu Thomas £20 @ 2.72 = -£17.20  LOSS

14:25   Clon     Sizing Europe £10 @ 1.15 = -£1.50  LOSS

15:40   Taun     Malin Head £20 @ 2.96 = £19.00  PROFIT

16:25   Kemp   Arley Hall (Non runner)

 

Daily P/L: £0.30

Current P/L: -£75.20

Current bank: £924.80

 

RESULTS: Fri 16 November

Manual mode – results to BSP

13:35   Ling      Layali Dubai £10 @ 2.24 = -£12.40  LOSS

14:00   Newc   Ros Castle £20 @ 3.15 = £19.00  PROFIT

 

Daily P/L: £6.60

Current P/L: -£68.60

Current bank: £931.40

 

RESULTS: Sat 17 November

Manual mode – results to BSP

12:25   Punch   Commanchewardance (Odds too high)

13:10   Weth    Twice Lucky £10 @ 2.52 = £9.50  PROFIT

13:35   Punch   Simenon £10 @ 1.42 = £9.50  PROFIT

14:10   Punch   Grange £20 @ 2.90 = -£38.00  LOSS

15:10   Uttox    No No Bingo (Odds too high)

15:25   Weth    Fleet Dawn (Odds too high)

 

Daily P/L: -£19.00

Current P/L: -£87.60

Current bank: £912.40

 

RESULTS: Sun 18 November

Manual mode – results to BSP

13:05   Punch   Oscars Well £10 @ 1.54 = £9.50  PROFIT

13:40   Punch   Back In Focus £10 @ 1.38 = -£3.80  LOSS

14:05   Font     Incentivise (Odds too high)

14:20   Chelt    Sprinter Sacre (Non runner

15:25   Chelt    Fox Run (Odds too high)

15:30   Cork    Instant Impacked (Odds too high)

 

Daily P/L: £5.70

Current P/L: -£81.90

Current bank: £918.10

Filed under Horse Racing Systems,Laying by Michael

0 comments

November 15, 2012

Lay Bet Blueprint

It’s been a disappointing start to this trial, which often happens I guess. The official result since launch is only 4.95 points profit, an amount that can be won or lost in a day with this method, so it would be fair to say it’s been treading water for the last four weeks.

I’ve attempted using a different staking plan to see how that would work out plus I’ve been running the system in ‘auto’ mode on The Bet Engine, because Alistair (the developer of The Bet Engine) did an update to the software specifically so that we could use the filters required for this system.

What I have noticed is that often I’ve been getting different selections to the official results, and this seems to have happened with other bot users too. The explanation seems to be to do with the odds of the horses close to the off. Of course, they are moving all the time so if we are betting on horse in order of rank, this can change depending on when the bet is fired into the market. What this has meant is that often I’ll have a winning day when the official results produced a losing day, and vice versa.

This is compounded by the fact that I have used a 6% Liability staking plan, rather than level stakes, as we ran all the previous results through The Staking Machine and this particular staking plan came out on top.

Not over the last four weeks though. My £1000 paper bank has been reduced to  £460.23, so it’s not been the most profitable angle at the moment.

In retrospect I should have run a separate instance at level stakes to see how that compares to the official results, but one of the other bloggers, Guy, has been running the system himself, picking the selections manually by going through the race card each morning (only takes ten minutes) and using the Bet Engine to place bets. This is how he got on:

“From the analysis that I did, Bank Liability staking, given the strike rate, was the best way forward. So, I elected to use 5% Bank Liability staking with a 1K start bank.

Have run since 25th October using this staking plan.

Things were going GREAT guns – showing a very impressive net profit of £679 to the 5th November, then things took a massive dip – from the 6th – 11th November a loss of £435

Still, a profit of £244 in 17 days is pretty good!

Think progress is likely to peak & trough from what we have seen thus far.”

Filed under Horse Racing Systems,Laying by Graham

4 comments

November 5, 2012

Russell Gibbs

A break even month on the backing side for this service in October and £160 profit on the laying side at £100 level liabilities. Still a profit is a profit.

http://www.cash-master.com/russellgibbs.php

Filed under Backing,Each Way,Horse Racing Systems,Laying by Graham

0 comments

November 5, 2012

Betting Speed Evolution

Betting Speed Evolution Final Review

I was asked to look at an advanced copy of Betting Speed Evolution from Michael Wilding of Race Advisor.

It is easy enough to install the software, and once installed I got selections for the day without any tears or tantrums. Thankfully, there’s an export function so that I could export the selections to Excel for easy recording of results. I notice that there is the ability to export in to GHB, which will be very useful for those that use that.

To £10 stakes, the automated selections are £136 in profit.  At the end of my “initial thoughts” review I said “For now, I am happy that I have something that works, and I hope that I will still be able to say that in a few weeks’ time“. The automated selections were £85 in profit at that time, so the software hasn’t really kicked on since then. This could be due to the “changeover” from Flat to National Hunt, always a tricky time for betting on the racing.

I also looked at betting each-way when the Betfair SP odds where 6 or greater. This is only £47 in profit (from £35 in the “initial thoughts” review) and cannot be recommended going forward.

Using a rolling 1% of bank as the stake also produced some profit. I checking the results I found a little error in my spreadsheet at each-way rolling 1% actually made a slight loss and not +£194 as previously reported.

I did look at 3% of bank as a stake but this made a significant loss.

Looking at the profit distribution:

Back

Lay

Grand Total

Bets

Profit

Bets

Profit

Bets

Profit
All Weather Flat

81

£ 316.26

37

-£ 35.70

118

£ 280.56
Chase

2

-£ 20.00

36

-£ 38.30

38

-£ 58.30
Flat

123

-£ 210.53

43

£ 70.80

166

-£ 139.73
Hurdle

8

£ 58.09

35

-£ 21.90

43

£ 36.19
National Hunt Flat

4

£ 17.50

0

4

£ 17.50
Grand Total

218

£ 161.32

151

-£ 25.1

369

£ 136.22

 

Back bets on chase is from 2 races, over hurdles 8 races and NH flat just 4 races, so conclusions cannot be drawn here.

Backing 123 races over Flat produced a significant loss, and folks who continue to use this application may want to adjust their staking plan next Summer. From the 151 advised Lay bets, laying selections on Flat produced the best results.

I also looked at the advanced function. I mucked this up, and I am truly sorry for anyone who was following my trial of this. I freely admit to not knowing a great deal about horse racing, and that was evident when the results were corrected. I still believe that the data could be useful in the hands of folks with a great deal more nowse than me, but that is difficult to prove in the context of this trial.

So, how to categorise this? We have made a profit through a difficult period, but the extent of that profit has not really been significant. Lying somewhere between Neutral and Approved I will err on the side of caution and, with some reservations, go Neutral. My chief reservation derives from September being really awful and there has been a steady recovery since then (from £107 down at one point to £135 up), so the application may be a great tool outside of the change-over period. Certainly, if you do buy this, you’ll need to monitor where the application is strongest (All weather backing plus Flat Laying and perhaps Hurdle backs with more data) and where it is weakest (Flat backing if this trend continues when not in the change-over period); it may be that just not using the application in September is also a plan.

You can get Betting Speed Evolution here:

http://www.cash-master.com/BettingSpeedEvolution.php

Filed under Backing,Each Way,Horse Racing Systems,Laying by Arthur

0 comments

November 5, 2012

Betting Speed Evolution

04 Nov

13:10 – Brog Deas-Lay Won
13:45 – Right Stuff-Back Lost

 

Summary:

Day 60: 2 Bets, 0 winners. -1.40 points; £-14.00 to £10 stakes, 1% plan is £-14.88.

Overall: 370 bets, 168 winners. +13.62 points for £+136.22 to £10 stakes, 1% plan £+51.23.

Note: Using each-way when Win odds are 6 or above returned:

Day 60: 2 Bets, 0 winners and 0 placed. -1.40 points; £-14.00 to £10 stakes, 1% plan is £-16.91.

Overall: 370 bets, 168 winners and 26 placed. +4.75 points for £+47.52 to £10 stakes, 1% plan £+194.37.

Filed under Backing,Each Way,Horse Racing Systems,Laying by Arthur

0 comments

November 4, 2012

System Lays – Phantom Lays

This brings the results right up to date.

When posting the results for 21 October I could not access BSP for Manieree (Naas 15.25), so I used the odds obtained by my bot.  It turns out that the fault was with my browser and not Betfair and I had overstated the loss very slightly.  I have adjusted the P/L at the end of this post.

RESULTS: Sun 28 October

Manual mode – results to BSP

13:55   Winc    Minella Stars £20 @ 3.84 = £19.00  PROFIT

14:50   Wex     Benevolent £10 @ 2.40 = £9.50  PROFIT

 

Daily P/L: £28.50

Current P/L: -£8.40

Current bank: £991.60

 

Auto mode – summary results from live market.

 

Daily P/L: £49.23

Current P/L: -£444.63

Current bank: £555.37

 

RESULTS: Mon 29 October

Manual mode – results to BSP

13:10   Redc    Dream Vale  (Odds too high)

13:25   Naas    Hidden Cyclone £10 @ 3.21 = -£22.10  LOSS

13:55   Naas    Folsom Blue £10 @ 3.21 = £9.50  PROFIT

14:20   Leics    Shamaal Nibras  (Odds too high)

16:05   Galw    Romanesco  (Non runner)

16:20   Leics    Glossy Posse £20 @ 2.62 = -£16.20  LOSS

 

Daily P/L: -£28.80

Current P/L: -£37.20

Current bank: £962.80

 

Auto mode – summary results from live market.

 

Daily P/L: -£73.03

Current P/L: -£517.66

Current bank: £482.34

 

RESULTS: Tues 30 October

Manual mode – results to BSP

13:40   Yarm    Azelle  (Non runner)

14:20   Catt      Dubai Hills  (Odds too high)

15:40   Yarm    Itum  (Odds too long)

 

Daily P/L: £nil

Current P/L: -£37.20

Current bank: £962.80

 

Auto mode – summary results from live market.

 

Daily P/L: £nil

Current P/L: -£517.66

Current bank: £482.34

 

RESULTS: Weds 31 October

Manual mode – results to BSP

14:15   Hayd    Harris Hawk  (Odds too high)

15:20   Hayd    Vincitore  (Odds too high)

15:45   Ling      Estedaama  (Odds too high)

 

Daily P/L: £nil

Current P/L: -£37.20

Current bank: £962.80

 

Auto mode – summary results from live market.

 

Daily P/L: £nil

Current P/L: -£517.66

Current bank: £482.34

 

RESULTS: Thur 01  November

Manual mode – results to BSP

13:40   Strat     American Art  (Odds too high)

14:10   Strat     True Blue  (Odds too high)

15:10   Strat     Mr Valentino  (Odds too high)

 

Daily P/L: £nil

Current P/L: -£37.20

Current bank: £962.80

 

Auto mode – summary results from live market.

 

Daily P/L: £22.91

Current P/L: -£494.75

Current bank: £505.25

 

RESULTS: Fri 02  November

Manual mode – results to BSP

14:05   Down   Monksland £10 @ 1.91 = -£9.10  LOSS

14:45   Newm  Boonga Roogeta £20 @ 3.45 = -£49.00  LOSS

14:55   Uttox    Kindly Note £10 @ 3.84 = £9.50  PROFIT

15:20   Newm  Ninjago £10 @ 2.16 = -£11.60  LOSS

15:30   Uttox    Dancing Art £20 @ 3.35 = £19.00  PROFIT

16:15   Wolv    Spokeswoman £10 @ 3.17 = £9.50  PROFIT

 

Daily P/L: -£31.70

Current P/L: -£68.90

Current bank: £931.10

 

Auto mode – summary results from live market.

 

Daily P/L: -£42.83

Current P/L: -£537.58

Current bank: £462.42

 

RESULTS: Sat 03  November

Manual mode – results to BSP

13:20   Newm  Cap O’rushes £10 @ 1.62 = £9.50  PROFIT

13:35   Ayr      Sacre Toi £10 @ 1.75 = £9.50  PROFIT

14:25   Down   Sizing Europe  (Non runner)

15:05   Newm  Mull Of Killough  (Odds too high)

15:20   Ayr      Realt Mor £20 @ 3.06 = £19.00  PROFIT

15:25   Weth    Silviniaco Conti £10 @ 2.20 = -£12.00  LOSS

 

Daily P/L: £26.00

Current P/L: -£42.90

Current bank: £957.10

 

Auto mode – summary results from live market.

 

Daily P/L: £38.63

Current P/L: -£498.95

Current bank: £501.05

 

RESULTS: Sun 04  November

Manual mode – results to BSP

13:40   Cork    Rule The World  (Odds too high)

14:00   Leop    Ballyorban  (Odds too high)

15:05   Leop    Beyond Thankful  (Odds too high)

15:10   Carl      African Broadway £20 @ 3.61 = £19.00  PROFIT

15:20   Cork    Sea Of Thunder  (Non runner)

 

Daily P/L: £19.00

Current P/L: -£23.90

Current bank: £976.10

 

Adjustment for overstated loss +£2.50:

Current P/L -£21.40

Current bank £978.60

 

Auto mode – summary results from live market.

 

Daily P/L: £23.80

Current P/L: -£475.15

Current bank: £524.85

Filed under Horse Racing Systems,Laying by Michael

0 comments

November 4, 2012

Betting Speed Evolution

Betting Speed Evolution

03 Nov

13:55 – Jadesnumberone-Back Lost
13:55 – Pure Excellence-Back Won
14:00 – Taquin Du Seuil-Lay Placed
14:15 – Alasi-Lay Placed
15:00 – Cristal Bonus-Lay Won
16:05 – Director’s Forum-Back Placed

 

Summary:

Day 59: 6 Bets, 3 winners. +2.52 points; £+25.16 to £10 stakes, 1% plan is £+24.41.

Overall: 368 bets, 168 winners. +15.02 points for £+150.22 to £10 stakes, 1% plan £+66.11.

 

 

Note: Using each-way when Win odds are 6 or above returned:

Day 59: 6 Bets, 3 winners and 0 placed. +0.36 points; £+3.64 to £10 stakes, 1% plan is £+27.73.

Overall: 368 bets, 168 winners and 26 placed. +6.15 points for £+61.52 to £10 stakes, 1% plan £+211.28.

Filed under Backing,Each Way,Horse Racing Systems,Laying by Arthur

0 comments

November 3, 2012

Betting Speed Evolution

02 Nov

13:40 – Pearl Sea-Back Lost
14:10 – Require-Back Lost
14:55 – Wild Rhubarb-Lay Placed
17:15 – Aye Aye Skipper-Back Won
18:00 – Scrapper Blackwell-Lay Won
20:00 – Whitethorne Scent-Back Lost
20:30 – Elusive Express-Back Placed
20:30 – That’s Ours-Back Lost

 

Summary:

Day 58: 8 Bets, 2 winners. -0.79 points; £-7.92 to £10 stakes, 1% plan is £-9.46.

Overall: 362 bets, 165 winners. +12.51 points for £+125.07 to £10 stakes, 1% plan £+41.71.

 

 

Note: Using each-way when Win odds are 6 or above returned:

Day 58: 8 Bets, 2 winners and 0 placed. -0.79 points; £-7.92 to £10 stakes, 1% plan is £-10.74.

Overall: 362 bets, 165 winners and 26 placed. +23.44 points for £+234.39 to £10 stakes, 1% plan £+183.56.

Filed under Backing,Each Way,Horse Racing Systems,Laying by Arthur

0 comments

November 2, 2012

Betting Speed Evolution

01 Nov

16:30 – Cevaro-Back Won
16:40 – Secret Missile-Back Placed
17:40 – Norfolk Sky-Back Won

 

Summary:

Day 57: 3 Bets, 2 winners. +4.80 points; £+48.05 to £10 stakes, 1% plan is £+48.11.

Overall: 354 bets, 163 winners. +13.30 points for £+132.99 to £10 stakes, 1% plan £+51.17.

 

 

Note: Using each-way when Win odds are 6 or above returned:

Day 57: 3 Bets, 2 winners and 1 placed. +5.63 points; £+56.32 to £10 stakes, 1% plan is £+64.11.

Overall: 354 bets, 163 winners and 26 placed. +24.23 points for £+242.31 to £10 stakes, 1% plan £+194.30.

 

Filed under Backing,Each Way,Horse Racing Systems,Laying by Arthur

0 comments

November 1, 2012

31 Oct

Betting Speed Evolution

 

15:20 – Ballybough Gorta-Lay Won
15:20 – Allanard-Lay Lost
16:00 – Ourbeautifuldream-Back Lost

 

Summary:

Day 56: 3 Bets, 1 winners. -6.25 points; £-62.50 to £10 stakes, 1% plan is £-66.94.

Overall: 351 bets, 161 winners. +8.49 points for £+84.94 to £10 stakes, 1% plan £+3.06.

 

 

Note: Using each-way when Win odds are 6 or above returned:

Day 56: 3 Bets, 1 winners and 0 placed. -6.25 points; £-62.50 to £10 stakes, 1% plan is £-75.42.

Overall: 351 bets, 161 winners and 25 placed. +18.60 points for £+185.99 to £10 stakes, 1% plan £+130.19.

Filed under Backing,Each Way,Horse Racing Systems,Laying by Arthur

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