From the category archives:

Horse Racing Systems

November 21, 2008

Curse of the Handicapper

Over the course of the next month (longer, if necessary) I shall be testing Curse of the Handicapper.  This is another system from Sportsworld Publishing and it’s aim is to profit from laying relatively short priced selections: strangely, given the title, this is not limited to handicaps.  In keeping with their other systems, the “e-book” is (very) short and to the point. 

The system is provided in the form of a Word document and to say that this is an e-book free from the usual padding is to understate the case.  This is not so much an e-book as an e-leaflet: the document runs to a grand total of six pages… and two of those are blank.  All the system rules appear on the first page, so on that basis, even this system has three pages of padding!!

Clearly, anyone who equates quantity with quality will be bitterly disappointed with this system.  However, the rationale appears to be that a system is a set of rules and anything that isn’t a set of rules is padding.  So what the purchaser gets is a set of rules (and three pages of “padding”!)

A betting bank of 100 points is advised and the e- “book” states that the use of a staking plan will ensure that profits will be a lot higher.  However, there is no mention of which staking plan to use, nor is there any mention of how many points to stake per selection.  In my experience Sportworld Publishing show their results using £100 level stakes: staking 1 point per selection I would need a betting bank of £10,000.  That sort of figure is too rich for me and I do not regard it as realistic.  Consequently, for the purposes of this test I will use a betting bank of £1000 (which gives £10 per point) and I will stake one point per selection.  

Moving on to the system itself: Curse of the Handicapper is easy to understand and very straightforward to operate, to the point that anyone who can read “the cat sat on the mat” should have no difficulty with it.  There was only one point in the rules which was not clear and this was clarified on the second page.  The system is so straightforward, that if I were to give the selections it would be easy for anyone so inclined to work out most of the rules.  Consequently, my results will show only the race time, the odds at which I layed (this will not necessarily be bookies’ or Betfair’s SP) and outcome.

I have yet to use the system, but my initial impression is that there will be a lot of selections: I am assuming that the profit margin is likely to be slim and, if this is so, that the volume of selections should counter the narrow profit margin.  If this were a one-a-day system I suspect users might turn into wrinkled prunes long before a worthwhile profit could be made; however, this system is likely to be at the opposite end of the spectrum from one-a-day.  Whilst I am pre-judging the outcome, I sense that there could be fairly long periods when the bank goes sideways or backwards; hence running the system for longer than one month if necessary.  The system does seem to be based on sound principles, however, and I am hoping that it will produce long-term profits.

In keeping with my usual practice I will attempt to cover all racing from Thursdays to Sundays and, if I am able to, I will also cover evening racing the rest of the week.  The system should be easy to use with GHB and I will be using the bot do the boring bit’s for me.  However, due to what were probably ISP problems I only set up GHB the same day that I use it.

I expect to begin the test some time over the weekend, hopefully tomorrow (Friday) 

Filed under Horse Racing Systems,Laying by Michael

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November 20, 2008

The Sharp End

Thursday 20th November
No Selections

Starting Bank: £500.00
Current Bank: £502.10
Profit/Loss: £2.10

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Alistair Moffatt

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November 20, 2008

Paul Fowlie on Course

20/11/08

Running Total -£3410.83

No official bets today but Paul did mention 3 horses that he was interested in at Market Rasen today. One lost, one won at 11/8 and one that he metioned being a good each way bet won at 11/2.

Paul has requested that we call a halt to the test and restart it after Christmas as he says that he has never hit such a poor patch before and is keen to prove the value of his service.

I have discussed this request with Graham and we have decided that in order to give as fair an opinion as possible we will agree to give the service another try in the new year.

Paul states that his service made over £12000 from April to October and that the current form will turn around very soon. I have no reason to doubt his claims as his other systems have stood up to their billing during our test periods.
We have seen this service go through an extremely rough patch, so I think it would be fair to allow him a chance to prove the value he can provide his customers with.

I think that anyone who has followed the racing game for a number of years will agree that the change over period between the flat and jump seasons is an absolute minefield for backing systems and tipsters.

By stopping now and restarting in mid-season we will be able to form a fair and balanced opinion as to whether this service can have a run of form as good as the recent one has been poor.

If you had been a member since April and had made the profits claimed, you would probably be willing to bear with him during this bad run in the hope that he would recover his touch as soon as possible. You would probably be more “picky” about which of his tips you followed, and would certainly have cut the size of your stakes dramatically. So I am willing to call a halt to the trial and restart as requested in the hope that Paul can turn things around.

Filed under Horse Racing Systems by Liam

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November 20, 2008

Dodgy Favourites

RESULTS for 20-11-08

2.20 @ Hereford          Gone To Lunch            Lay Odds 1.61             UnSuccessful Lay

Bank Details: -

£1,000.00 Starting bank
£1,000.00 Bank brought forward
£     15.25 Loss
£   984.75 Total Bank to date

Note: Stake for each bet is £25

Filed under Laying by Chris

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November 20, 2008

Dodgy Favourites

Hello my name is Chris, and I am trialling a new Lay system. The system is written by Paul Fowlie, and he doesnt beat about the bush wasting pages on waffle. He gets straight to the point, covering the entire system in 4 pages. The system has a different slant to most lay systems on the market in as much that the selection criteria in some aspects is what you would look for if you were to look for a horse to back, not to lay.

The results look good however, and it is possible to see the past 6 months results from the web page, which shows both a good strike rate and profit. The results are consistent, with a maximum losing streak of 3 unsuccessful lays in a row. If you were to have used level stakes of £100 for each and every bet from mid May to now, you would have made a profit of just over £10,000.

The main features of the system are: -

No dangerous lays only Racing Post favourites
Strike rate 77%
No need to watch live racing
Place bets before going to work
Average losing bets less than 7/4
£32.17 average profit every bet, win or lose
Average of 2 bets each day and £416 profit a week

For the first month, you can have free access to the members selection web page, whereby you can see what Pauls selections are for the day. This is useful, as you can confirm that you are using the system correctly by seeing which horse is the selected runner.
For the trial, I will be using level stakes of 2.5% of the bank. The bank will start at £1,000.

Filed under Laying by Chris

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November 19, 2008

Paul Fowlie on Course

19/11/08

Hexham Today

Running Total -£2910.83

1.10 Motarid £50 win                  2nd -£50

Abbaleen £50 win                       Unp -£50

1.40 No Bet

2.10 Twelve Paces £100 win        Unp -£100

Fair Question £50 e/w                Unp -£100

2.40 Manoubi £100 win              Unp -£100

Cave Hill £50 win                       Unp -£50

3.10 No Bet

3.40 Mamba £50 win                  2nd -£50

Daily Total -£500

Running Total -£3410.83

I had hoped that this service was turning a corner after the good (and nearly extremely good) day Monday. But this was a very bad day indeed and there has to be a limit to the amount of loss of form and money that can be attributed to bad luck. As stated before, my results are recorded at S.P. and exchange or early price users will be slightly ahead of my figures. Not that that was an issue today.

Filed under Horse Racing Systems by Liam

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November 19, 2008

The Sharp End

Monday 17th November
No Selections

Tuesday 18th November
13:10 Folkestone – Medermit – £52 @ 1.80 – WON (+41.60)

Wednesday 19th November
13:40 Hexham – Joe’s A Boy – £56 @ 1.50 – LOST (-56.00)

Starting Bank: £500.00
Current Bank: £502.10
Profit/Loss: £2.10

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Alistair Moffatt

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November 19, 2008

My Lay Bets

Hello
My name is Chris. I am going to start doing a trial on a Laying service called “My Lay Bets”.

This lay service offers daily selections that are emailed to your inbox each morning around 9:00 – 10:00. There are probably 1 or 2 selections on average per day, and the service owner gives guidelines of the lay odds recommended.
The subscription comes with a staking plan, a lay BOT and a general gambling E-book to wet your appetite.
The owner has issued two years of results on their web site, which shows a reasonably good consistent profit each month. The service has had 405 selections with 358 winning lay bets which gives it a 88% strike rate with a profit of +108 points! This is based on only laying the horse if the sp is below 8/1 and you lay at 15% above the starting price and then pay commission of 5% out of any winnings.
I will run the trial at level stakes (2.5% of the total bank), with a starting bank of £1,000. At the end of the trial, I will do a summary indicating what the final profit/ loss is at level stakes, and also using the staking plan that is offered for those that like to use such plans.
I have been following the service over the past few days, and here are the results (profits include 5% Betfair commission): -
15/11/08
1:25 Dashing George      (Lay odds 6.93)         Successful Lay            profit £23.75

16/11/08
No selections

17/11/08
No selections

18/11/08
2:30 Backbord               (Lay odds 3.90)          Unsuccessful Lay        profit -£74.21
3:10 Alderbrook Girl       (Lay odds 6.40)          Successful Lay           profit   £22.54

Summary
£1,000.00 Starting bank
£    27.92  Loss
£   972.08 Total bank to date

Filed under General,Laying by Chris

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November 17, 2008

Paul Fowlie on Course

17/11/08

Running Total -£3035.83

Leicester Today

12.50 Parlesotho £50 e/w @ 9/2    Won +£281.25

1.20 Pop Ahead £50 e/w @ 4/1      Won +£250

Breiz Dreams £25 e/w @ 16/1         2nd +£75

1.50 Harlequin Danseur £100 win     Unp -£100

2.20 Crocodile Rock £50 win            Unp -£50

Kalahari King £50 win @ 11/8          Won +£68.75

2.50 Pagano £50 e/w                      Unp -£100

3.20 Walsingham £50 e/w               Unp -£100

3.50 Pterodactyl £200 win               2nd -£200

Daily Total +£125

Running Total -£2910.83

The first profitable day this month for the service. It’s a shame that a great start to the day was almost ruined by giving £400 back. However, a profit is a profit and this service needs a prolonged run profitable days to recover the losses incurred since the start of the test. Had the 1.20 finished the other way round it would have made a much bigger dent in the losses. It was very close finish.

Filed under Horse Racing Systems by Liam

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November 16, 2008

The Sharp End

A quick update on the past few days – as you can see, it remains very quiet!

Friday 14th November
No Selections

Saturday 15th November
No Selections

Sunday 16th November
No Selections

Starting Bank: £500.00
Current Bank: £516.50
Profit/Loss: £16.50

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Alistair Moffatt

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