From the category archives:

Horse Racing Systems

November 4, 2008

Paul Fowlie on Course

There are no bets to report today, but I thought I would write an entry clarifying the  comments I made on Saturday.

It seems Paul has taken exception to my attempt at gallows humour with the comment about heading for bankruptcy. This was only intended as a light hearted pun on what had been a poor month for the service. On reflection it could be taken to be overly sarcastic and I offer my apologies to Paul for that.
I would also like to clarify the point I made about the majority of bets being on the favourite, second favourite or both. I think the basic fact of that is true, and obviously a good number of races are won by horses that fall into that category. The point I wanted to make was that, from the evidence I have seen over the month of betting, it appears Paul advises betting on every race on the card (long odds-on excepted) and if in doubt as to a likely winner, back the favourite or second favourite on each way terms if practical. My issue with this policy is that it is hardly worth paying an ongoing premium to a tipster service for this sort of advice, when a couple of “No Bets” a day could save hundreds of pounds.

To be fair Paul did have a big priced winner (16/1sp) last Thursday, but then gave over half of it back. At the start of the test I did make it clear that I would be recording all results to industry S.P. in order to be fair to backers who bet on course or with traditional high street bookmakers. Paul states that a good number of his recent losing bets have gone very close and that the in running price on exchanges reflect this fact. True, but irrelevant to all the backers who bet on course, at bookmakers or who place their bets with exchanges before going to work in the morning. Beside which, this is a backing service and not a trading one.
I always try to be fair to all the systems and tipsters that I review and I have already stated that due to October being a bit of a graveyard for backing services I will extend the trial to the end of November rather than just say “He’s lost over a grand in four weeks, don’t touch this service” and file it under failed. I would be very pleased to see the losses recovered and a profit made. Hence the trial extension.

I hope that the above helps clarify the points I wanted to make on the findings so far.

I do apologise for the sarcasm and the poor wording of the comment on the type of bet Paul targets and hope this sets the record straight.
I would like to make clear that I write reviews on this blog purely for fun and I do not personally receive any payment of any kind for them. The only benefit I derive from doing it is access to the systems themselves and the rather perverse pleasure I take in record keeping and analysis. If I like a service I will say so, if I don’t I will say so. And woe betide a service losing money on the day Arsenal get beat by Stoke. For the benefit of anyone failing to realise, that was also intended to be humorous.

Filed under Horse Racing Systems by Liam

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The First Past The Post system is a horse backing system that works by comparing data from two readily accessible web sites.

The system comes as a 10 page eBook, which lays out the method in an easy to follow manner. The system requires access to both the Racing Post website (www.racingpost.co.uk) and the Betfair Timeform website (form.horseracing.betfair.com). Determining the initial daily selections takes no more than 5-10 minutes and can be completed at any time prior to racing – a boon for those that go off to work early, as the selections can be made the night before.

Bets are placed at Betfair SP (BSP). When betting at BSP, it is possible to specify the minimum acceptable odds for a qualifying bet. The eBook suggests a minimum odds value of 4.0, which reduces the number of qualifying bets significantly. A second option with lower minimum odds is also shown in the eBook for those people that prefer a higher strike rate.

By betting at Betfair SP, the return can be significantly more than standard SP, as Betfair SP does seem to be higher than standard SP in most cases.

For staking purposes I followed the recommended staking plan in the eBook. Stakes were set to 2% of the bank taken at the start of each day, and then recalculated after the day’s racing in readiness for the next day. For the trial, I started with a bank of £500, making the initial stake £10.00 per race. The strike rate was expected to be around 18%.

The trial of the First Past The Post system lasted just over 1 month. During that time, there were 496 potential selections. Of those 496, 30 became non-runners and only 262 met the required odds criteria and led to betting opportunities. The trial provided a steady stream of winners – with the bonus of an occasional winner at high odds. At the end of the trial, the system had produced a profit of £151.85 (strike rate: 21.4%; ROI: 5.12%).

With the reduced odds, there were 466 betting opportunities, producing a profit of £48.57 (strike rate: 27.9%; ROI: 1.06%) – which backs up the claim in the eBook that it is better to operate at the higher odds cut-off.

I found the system very easy to use and it was pleasing to see that I could make my selections the night before racing rather than having to monitor the live markets.  I’m not convinced that the system is based on any real science, but you can’t argue with a strike rate of 21.4% and an overall profit of £151.85, against a starting stake of only £10. If the strike rate can be maintained over a long period of time, and coupled with the occasional winner at high odds, it seems that this system could produce a reasonable return. I would stick to the higher recommended cut-off on the odds, as the ROI on the secondary system is not worthwhile.

Overall the First Past The Post system receives a qualified thumbs up.

You can get First Past The Post here:

http://www.first-past-the-post.co.uk/cashmaster.htm

 

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Alistair Moffatt

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November 1, 2008

Paul Fowlie on Course

1/11/08

Wetherby again today

Running Total -£602.64

12.40 Deep Purple £150 to win. Unp -£150

Lend Lease  £50 to win.  2nd  -£50

1.15 Glencree £100 to win        Unp  -£100

1.50 Tell Henry £50 e/w @ 9/2  Won  +£281.25

2.20 Blaeberry £100 win           2nd   -£100

3.00 Mobaasher £75 e/w @ 3/1  2nd   -£30

3.35 Turko £75 win                  Unp   -£75

Ollie Magern £25 win         2nd   -£25

4.05 Fresh Air And Fun £50 e/w Unp  -£50

Daily Total -£298.75

Running Total -£901.39

It would appear the only thing Mr Fowlie is on course for is bankruptcy.

I am in two minds about giving this service another month. On the one hand October is often a major nightmare for backing services so I would be tempted to give him another month to recover. On the other hand, the vast majority of bets are on the favourite, 2nd favourite or both and I’m not sure that’s going to recover the very considerable losses incurred last month.

On the whole I think it would be fairer to continue for one more month, just incase this was a one off bad month.

Filed under Horse Racing Systems by Liam

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October 31, 2008

Paul Fowlie on Course

31/10/08

Running Total -£396.39

Paul was at Wetherby today

1.00 Ten Carat £50 e/w.   Unp  -£100

1.35 Festival King £50 e/w  Unp  -£100

2.10 Ruff Diamond £50 win.  3rd  -£50

2.45 Yes Sir £75 win @ 9/4  Won £168.75

Frankie Figg £50 win   3rd.   -£50.

3.20 Sergheyev £100 win.    2nd   -£100

3.55 Kings Majesty £75 win  2nd -£75

First Point £50 win @ 2/1  Won  +£100

Daily Total -£206.25

Running Total -£602.64

Filed under Horse Racing Systems by Liam

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October 30, 2008

Paul Fowlie on Course

30/10/08

Bank -£626.39

Paul was at Newcastle today

1.00 La Fortalesa £25 e/w @ 16/1 Won +£480

1.30 Role On £50 e/w  N.R.

2.00 Broadway Star £100 to win @ 2/1 2nd  -£100

2.30 Art Gallery £25 e/w @ 11/2. UNP      -£50

3.00 Greenock £25 e/w @ 8/1    UNP   -£50

3.30 Flaygrey  £25 e/w @ 7/2    UNP  -£50

4.00  General Hardi  £50 e/w @ 4/1  2nd  No Profit Or Loss

Daily Total +£230

Running Total -£396.39

Filed under Horse Racing Systems by Liam

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October 25, 2008

50 – 50 Racing

Friday 24th October 2008:

System 1:

13:50 Doncaster
Roman Republic vs Dream Win
Bet: £7.74
Winner: Roman Republic
Profit: £5.00

18:50 Wolverhampton
Without Prejudice vs Alexander Huricane
Bet: £7.41
Winner: Alexander Huricane
Loss: £7.41

19:20 Wolverhampton
Fulham Broadway vs Nemorosa
Bet: £23.75
Winner: Fulham Broadway
Profit: £12.41

Bank Brought Forward: £167.23
Profit/Loss: £10.00
Current Bank: £177.23
Current Overall Loss: £82.77

System 2: 18:50 Wolverhampton
Without Prejudice vs Alexander Huricane
Bet: £7.41
Winner: Alexander Huricane
Loss: £7.41

19:20 Wolverhampton
Fulham Broadway vs Nemorosa
Bet: £23.75
Winner: Fulham Broadway
Profit: £12.41

Bank Brought Forward: £95.32
Profit/Loss: £5.00
Current Bank: £100.32
Current Overall Loss: £149.68

Well that is the end of the test for 50-50 Racing. During the next few days, I will go over the results for following the system to the letter, to see how that compares to the adjustment that I originally made, which will then make up my final review for the system.

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by David Aston

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October 24, 2008

First Past The Post

A bit of a beleaguered card today, but the system ended the trial with a final flourish.  I’ll write up my findings over the weekend.

Results for Friday 24th October

Bank brought forward: £610.21
Daily stake: £12.20

13:50 Doncaster – Dream Win – LOST (-12.20)
14:20 Doncaster – Leocorno – WON (+78.23)
14:55 Doncaster – Hunterview – LOST (-12.20)
16:40 Doncaster – Offshore Anna – LOST (-12.20)

Todays P/L: £41.63
Bank: £651.85

Overall profit for the trial: £151.85

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Alistair Moffatt

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October 23, 2008

First Past The Post

The penultimate day of our test. As expected, we dropped back from the heights of yesterday, with a day full of losing bets.

Results for Thursday 23rd October

Bank brought forward: £709.54
Daily stake: £14.19

14:30 Brighton – Amber Sunset – LOST (-14.19)
15:05 Brighton – Rocker – LOST (-14.19)
15:15 Carlisle – Thai Vango – LOST (-14.19)
15:25 Ludlow – Three Lions – LOST (-14.19)
16:05 Brighton – Personify – LOST (-14.19)
16:50 Carlisle – Alto Stratus – LOST (-14.19)
17:00 Ludlow – My Condor – LOST (-14.19)

Todays P/L: £-99.33
Bank: £610.21

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Alistair Moffatt

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October 23, 2008

50 – 50 Racing

System 1:

15:05 Brighton
Bonnie Prince Blue vs Mango Music
Bet: £5.78
Winner: Mango Music
Loss: £5.78

15:15 Carlisle
Teenando vs Rosie All Over
Bet: £16.45
Winner: Teenando
Profit: £10.78

20:50 Great Leighs
Mazarus vs Pink Ivory
Bet: £2.06
Winner: Pink Ivory
Profit: £5.00

Bank Brought Forward: £157.23
Profit/Loss: £10.00
Current Bank: £167.23
Current Overall Loss: £82.77

System 2:

15:15 Carlisle
Teenando vs Rosie All Over
Bet: £2.19
Winner: Teenando
Profit: £4.99

21:20 Great Leighs
Wikaala vs Red Expresso
Bet: £2.53
Winner: Red Expresso
Profit: £5.00

Bank Brought Forward: £85.33
Profit/Loss: £9.99
Current Bank: £95.32
Current Overall Loss: £154.68

As I have now been running the test for five whole weeks, today is the penultimate day of the test. Whilst both banks are down, during my review of the system, I will also be looking at what would have happened to the banks had I followed the system precisely to the letter.

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by David Aston

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October 22, 2008

50 – 50 Racing

System 1:

15:10 Great Leighs
Orpenindeed vs Guilded Warrior
Bet: £9.75
Winner: Orpenindeed
Profit: £5.00

16:10 Great Leighs
Suzi Spends vs Red And White
Bet: £2.61
Winner: Suzi Spends
Loss: £2.61

16:30 Bath
Rutba vs Goldrenched
Bet: £3.93
Winner: Rutba
Loss: £3.93

16:40 Great Leighs
Colleoni vs Triple Dream
Bet: £4.53
Winner: Colleoni
Loss: £4.53

16:50 Southwell
Roznic vs Alkar
Bet: £6.99
Winner: Roznic
Loss: £6.99

Stop loss limit reached.

Bank Brought Forward: £170.29
Profit/Loss: -£13.06
Current Bank: £157.23
Current Overall Loss: £92.77

System 2:

15:20 Southwell
King Troy vs Bestofthebrownies
Bet: £6.27
Winner: King Troy
Profit: £5.00

16:30 Bath
Rutba vs Goldrenched
Bet: £2.58
Winner: Rutba
Loss: £2.58

16:50 Southwell
Roznic vs Alkar
Bet: £3.30
Winner: Roznic
Loss: £3.30

17:00 Bath
Mistress Eva vs Force Group
Bet: £5.67
Winner: Force Group
Profit: £10.88

Bank Brought Forward: £75.33
Profit/Loss: £10.00
Current Bank: £85.33
Current Overall Loss: £164.67

A number of races to follow due to races following the criteria for the higher priced horses first time in a long time for the test. However the sequence backfired for system one, and created a loss.

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by David Aston

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