6/3/2010

Another good week for the bots. 24 trades in the five days, 50% strike rate.

P/L This week +$333; overall, from start of trial +$538.00

I am giving the USDbot a run on a $100,000 demo account with ODL. Default stake is 1 minilot. With a stoploss of 30 pips $300 would seem a reasonable bank size to operate this.

The Ebook which introduces this $149.00 (approx £96) automatic robot doesn’t mention strategies, it simply and clearly leads you through setting up a broker, downloading and configuring a suitable account and how to set up the bot on both the EUR/USD & USD/JPY 5 minute charts. It is possible to vary the amount traded and stoploss etc but the vendor suggests that the bot performs best with the default settings. I shall be trading this from 8am-10pm, which covers the London and US markets. The vendors also suggest that it should be left on 24/5 but this is not something I want to do and any responsible person who shared my knowledge of the mare’s nest of cables and connections and banks of plugs behind my desk would surely approve.

So, on to the voyage…..

I originally set this up and ran it for three days with a complete absence of any trades. On contacting the vendor, I was pleasantly surprised to receive a prompt reply and immediate interest in why it wasn’t performing. After some Q & A and some screenshots back & forth, I was then told I needed Version 2 and directed to a download link. This had not one, but two EAs to use together and also an offer for a VPS service to host the bot 24 hrs a day for either $65 or $115, depending on which level of service you chose. I declined this generous offer and installed the new EAs, rather wondering why Graham had been supplied with V.1 in the first place.

These immediately started trading, with mixed, but overall, fairly successful results. I won’t go into the minutiae of the trading here, what matters to us all is whether it will make some money. So far it is doing that. I am trading on the default settings, as recommended and this means that I am trading minilots, as mentioned. However, it isn’t that simple, there are evidently internal settings which vary the amount staked as the trades proceed, so I will simply quote the cash figures which result, without attempting to decide how many pips they represent.

The bots have been running now since Tuesday, so only 4 days this week. Early days, of course, but shaping up nicely.

P/L: +$206.05

FINAL REVIEW

Profit Before Work is a trading system for the FTSE 100 market although the method could probably be used on any market and might be worthy of some research.

You get a 70 page manual plus online video tutorials including the author placing live trades so you can see how it’s done.

You use the free charts in IG index to spot the signal although any spread betting company or charting package would do the job.

The selling point of this particular method is that it can be used by those unfortunate souls that have to work for a living during the day. The idea is that you load up the chart just before 8am and then see if you can spot the trade signal just after 8 o’clock. Apparently the trade can qualify anytime after 8am although it looks like it usually happens within a few minutes of the market opening.

Once you spot the trade, you place an order with the usual stop loss in place and go off to get on with your day.

Now, the authors preferred way to trade is to then check the chart at midday and move the stop taking 50% of the profit so far then letting the trade close by itself at 4pm taking whatever profit remains (unless it hits the stop in the afternoon). He recommends using a PDA if you don’t have internet access to do this.

However, he suggests that those unable to access the internet during the day might prefer to set a profit target for the day (limit) although he makes no suggestion as to what that might be.

Since this is aimed at people working during the day I tested this by setting a limit order and leaving it to run as I wanted to see how it actually performs for someone placing a trade in the morning and going to work without having to adjust stops during the day.

So, I set a profit target of 20 pips using the recommended stop of 15 pips and paper trading at £10 a pip (although beginners can trade at as little as 50p a pip which would mean a risk of £7.50 per trade).

After the first week it became apparent that I was missing out on the big movements by using a limit order so I decided on a new strategy of placing an order to close automatically at 4.30, taking whatever profit was on the table.

Using it this way means that you can still have a quick look in the morning, open a trade with a 15 pip stop loss and leave it to run. Then at the end of the day you just check to see how much you made. You would have either lost 15 pips or made a profit of whatever amount it was at 4.30.

I kept a record of the results from scalping 20 pips too, just for comparison, and these were the results after five weeks:

Scalping 20 pips / All Day

18/1 -15
19/1 +20
20/1 -15
21/1 -15
22/1 -15

-40 

25/1 +20 -15
26/1 -15 -15
27/1 +20 -15
28/1 +20 +116
29/1 -15 -15

30 (-10) 56 (56)

1/2 +20  +64
2/2 +20  -15
3/2 -15  -15
4/2 +20  +104
5/2 +20  +54

65 (55)  192 (248)

 8/2 -15 -15
 9/2 +20 -15
10/2 -15 -15
11/2 +20 -15
12/2 -15 -15

-5 (50)  -75 (173)

15/2 -15 -15
16/2 -15 -15
17/2 -15 -15
18/2 +20 +36
19/2 +20 +35

-5 (45)  26 (199)
Total Scalping Profit: £450
Total All Day Profit: £1990
 

As you can see, we have one more weeks worth of results for scalping 20 pips. Overall both strategies were profitable but clearly leaving a trade to run all day was far more profitable, simply because you can catch the days with big movements.

When you get this package, you get full support from the author including a useful weekly newsletter that goes over the weeks trades. What was interesting was that during my trial period it was actually a pretty poor period for the method. Obviously, as we all know, all methods have up and down weeks, especially trading systems, and the Profit Before Work system didn’t perform particularly well according to the author. Looking at previous results it’s clear that there is plenty of money to be made with this system and I can imagine that having a few more days a month with the big movements would really show some significant profits.

It would appear that this is a trading system that really can be used by people that are too busy during the day to monitor the charts. As long as you have a spare fifteen minutes or so in the morning around 8am then you can use Profit Before Work to make a pretty substantial second income.

This is marketed by Agora so the refund guarantee is rock solid. I’d recommend giving it a go.

You can get Profit Before Work here:

http://www.cash-master.com/profitbeforework.php

Friday 19th February

A winning scalp and a winning all day trade today making 35 pips
Scalping Profit:+£200
All Day Profit: +£350

Total Scalping Profit: £450
Total All Day Profit: £1990

Well, a good end to the test for this system. I’ll write up a review over the weekend.

ATM-FX is a new trading system from Keith Cotterill, the brains behind The Ultimate Forex Predictor. You get a 62 page manual and a CD containing video tutorials showing you exactly how to set everything up and get going.

Unlike TUFXP, ATM-FX doesn’t require any standalone software or data feed subscriptions as it all runs using IG Index and their Advanced Charts. The advanced charts are free so long as you place at least two trades in a month.

Once set up, you save the chart as a template and it’s just a matter of loading up the chart each morning and waiting for the correct signal.

The trade signal is easy to spot and everyone using the system should get the same trades if trading at the same time.

The manual is very well written and contains everything you need to know assuming the reader knows nothing about trading. This means anyone with any previous experience can skip great chunks of the manual and just get to how to set up the chart and what is the buy/sell signal.

This system comes with access to a members only website with an extensive video (about an hour and a half long) which goes into detail about trading this method and includes pointers on what to look for in a potential good trade and what to be wary of for potential bad trades. The video is done by a guy called Neil Spare who, fortunately, has a voice and manner that doesn’t send you to sleep. I actually found the video very useful. Whilst the system itself has a mechanical entry point, it’s worth paying attention to certain factors outlined in the video as it will help you stay out of bad trades.

I traded the method for four weeks aiming for a profit target of 20 pips per trade and quitting for the day if I made 20 pips. This mean’t that if the first trade of the day won, then I would quit. If the first trade lost, I would take another trade. If that won then I would take one more trade and quit regardless of the result. If it lost, I would quit for the day.

The pip results were as follows:

18/1 +20
19/1 +20
20/1 +20
21/1 +20
22/1 +20

25/1 +20
26/1 +20
27/1 +10
28/1 +20
29/1 +20

1/2 +15
2/2 +20
3/2 +20
4/2 +20
5/2 +20

 8/2 +20
 9/2 +20
10/2 +15
11/2 +20
12/2 -72

Total: 288

As you can see, almost every day resulted in hitting the 20 pip profit target. Three days started with a losing trade followed by two winners making 10-15 pips on the day and only one day, the last day, had two losing trades.

I finished the month trial with 288 pips profit which, at £10 a pip level stakes, is £2880. Not bad at all considering the vast majority of days were finished before 9am.

I really do think this is a great trading product. The manual is written for a complete novice and the video tutorials make setting it up quick and easy. Once set up, all you have to do is open IG Index in the morning, load up the chart that you have already set up and saved, and wait for a qualifying signal. Once you see it, the entry point for the trade is easily calculated and away you go.

I see no reason why the chart set up couldn’t be used on other trading platforms and I imagine the method would work on any currency pair too, although I only tested it on GBPUSD five minute chart.

The product also comes with full support and I found replies to my e-mails were prompt and helpful.

All in all I would say that this has to be the best entry level forex system I have found to date. It’s good value, it’s easy and it works. Ok, it doesn’t have audio alerts like tufxp and you will have to watch the charts to spot the trades but since most of the days trading is done and dusted within the first hour or two, that’s no great hardship considering the income you can generate with it.

If you’re looking for a way to make a pretty decent income from trading using a mechanical system that consistently identifies winning trades then ATM-FX is the one to buy.

You can get ATM-FX here:

http://www.cash-master.com/ATM-FX.php

Monday 15th February

A losing trade today.

Scalping Profit: -£150
All Day Profit: -£150

Tuesday 16th February

A losing trade today.

Scalping Profit: -£150
All Day Profit: -£150

 
Total Scalping Profit: £200
Total All Day Profit: £1430

Friday 12th February

A losing trade today.

Scalping Profit: -£150
All Day Profit: -£150

 
Total Scalping Profit: £500
Total All Day Profit: £1730

 
I’ve only been running the all day trades for three weeks so I’ll give it another week to see how it does.

Friday 12th February

Would you believe it? The last day of the test and we had a losing day. Still the only losing day of the whole month.

A 32 pip loss this morning stopping out at 7.40. The next trade got stopped out at my maximum loss of 40 pips.

Looking at the charts, the entry points were within the overnight highs and lows so probably not sensible trades to take as no definite trend had formed and it would have been better to leave it another 15 or so pips to confirm a trend, still, I’m following the system mechanically and this is what I got.

Profit Today:-£720
Total Profit: £2880

Still a profit on the week, even if it is only £30!

I’ll do a write up of this method over the weekend.

Thursday 11th February

A winning scalp this morning but a loser for the all day trade

Scalping Profit: +£200
All Day Profit: -£150
Total Scalping Profit: £650
Total All Day Profit: £1880

Thursday 11th February

Dived straight into a trade first thing this morning as the entry criteria had just been met and the market was still bobbing around the entry level. 20 pips profit done and dusted by 7.30.

Profit Today: £200
Total Profit: £3600

Wednesday 10th February

A losing trade today

Scalping Profit: -£150
All Day Profit: -£150

 
Total Scalping Profit: £450
Total All Day Profit: £2030

Wednesday 10th February

We had a losing trade this morning costing 25 pips by 8am. The next trade was a winner making 20 pips by 10am. And the following trade was again a winner making 20 pips by midday. Again, I stopped for the day at a profit.

Profit Today: £150
Total Profit: £3400

Monday 8th February

A losing trade today

Scalping Profit: -£150
All Day Profit: -£150
 

Tuesday 9th February

A winning scalp this morning. Trading all day produced a loss though at 4.08pm which was a shame. It had moved sideways all day.

Scalping Profit: +£200
All Day Profit: -£150

Total Scalping Profit: £600
Total All Day Profit: £2180

Tuesday 9th February

First trade a winner again making the 20 pips. The trade came a little later today but still done by 9am.

Profit Today: £200
Total Profit: £3250

Thursday 4th February

Another good day for leaving it running making 104 pips

Scalping Profit Today:+£200
All Day Profit Today:+£1040

 
Friday 5th February

And another good day to end the week.

Scalping Profit Today:+£200
All Day Profit Today:+£540

 
Total Scalping Profit: £550
Total All Day Profit: £2480

Friday 5th February

20 pips on the first trade today.

Profit Today: £200
Total Profit: £2850
 

Monday 8th February

First trade a winner again making the 20 pips.

Profit Today: £200
Total Profit: £3050

Today we come to the end of the trial for Dubai Strategies. I volunteered to trial the system because the author was confident enough to offer the system up for testing. It was, originally, going to be tested for 4 weeks but I was that surprised/disappointed with the results, after seeing what it has achieved in the past with back testing, that I decided to give it another week. I suppose that’s the nature of forex, or anything else, though. You just don’t know when the sunny days are going to arrive.

I’m pleased to say, however, that this is one system that does everything it says on the tin. I’ve wasted so much time in the past testing totally useless systems, so this makes a very nice change. I’ve communicated a lot with the author and he is obviously a trader that uses his own system, as opposed to the usual marketer that simply wants to sell systems. He seems very genuine and transparent. He also has a blog where he keeps an update of everything and buyers of the system also have access to his live trading room, which is handy to confirm trades.
I think the author was very unlucky with his choice of testing period as the results achieved are below the average. I’ve back-tested these systems before trading with my own cash and was very confident with the performance. Even though the results in the test were below par, a combined profit of 72.5% in a five-week period (with little drawdown) is pretty good by anybody’s standards and I’ve managed to secure a decent profit.

There are two basic systems within Dubai Strategies; the first is a day-trading scalp system where the author aims for 4% profit per day and the other revolves around the ‘open’ of the GBP/USD market in the morning and the ‘open’ of the EUR/USD in the afternoon. Whilst the scalping system is the most profitable, I particularly like the morning and afternoon system for their simplicity and ease of use. Once the trade is triggered you can basically forget about it for the day. There is an option to monitor it and adjust the stop to break even at a certain point but I prefer to set it and forget it (most of the time). I might add that this system seems to work very well with other currency pairs also, so I’ll be doing a lot more testing in that area. I’m sure that incorporating this with other currency pairs would make it even more profitable and I think the author is looking into this area.
The downloaded manual is easy to understand with plenty of illustrations. There was just one problem I had but after emailing the author he was super quick in responding, which might also confirm that he was actually sat at his computer monitering the charts.

I would be the first to dismiss this sytem if it was no good because of all the time, effort and money I’ve wasted over the years. Some of the sytems have come from established, reputable firms that should know better. I don’t know how they have the nerve to market such rubbish. However, I will be recommending that this particular system should be added to the approved systems’ list.

My only worry, if I was a buyer, would be that there is no guarantee offered. This might just be my acquired cynical nature. I can only presume that the author is worried about people buying the system and simply returning it for a refund. But I also suspect that the author is inexperienced in the area of marketing as the presence of a guarantee would invoke a lot more confidence. He is, after all, a genuine trader and not a marketer. I’ve mentioned this to the author and we’ll see if he changes the guarantee aspect of it.

If you are interested in forex I would highly recommend Dubai Strategies as an easy to operate and profitable system, particularly the morning and afternoon systems.

You can get Dubai Strategies here:

http://www.cash-master.com/dubaistrategies.htm

Day 25

GBP/USD +4.5%  (+4.5%)
EUR/USD +5%     (+28%)
Scalps     +4%     (+40%)

I always seem to begin with apologies but I know a lot of you have been waiting to make a decision on this so once again let me apologise for the mass update rather than daily which would have been far better.

Last update took us to 15th Jan, so I will bring us up to date and offer a final conclusion on the strategy:

18th Jan +20 pips, cannot match with official results as Nick was off with flu

19th Jan - 20 pips, Nick got this one back but I didn’t have the time to try as I believe he traded around 9pm which is beyond what I have been testing

20th Jan - I went out so missed any trading opportunities, but official results + 20 pips

21st Jan - 20 pips, matching exactly Nick’s results, so result!!

22nd - getting into this another 20 pips banked

25th - Apparently a lot of the strategy followers steered clear tonight due to the behaviour of the S&P, I was not one of these and did trade, I came out with a small 5 pip loss, but from the screen shots sent if I’d have seen the trade out we would have realised the 20 pip profit. As an added note to this and as I keep saying this is a strategy you will need to learn it is not a set and forget option so just bear that in mind

26th Caught a downward trend for a quick 20 pips, Nick had two successes but I like to just make my 20 a day and then forget it

27th No trades due to a US announcement

28th bad day - 20 pips, Nick actually had 3 losing trades and one winner at 50 pips so official results are break even but you would have spent most of the evening recovering losses, I personally think there are enough winners here to just take one trade a day, you WILL still make a decent profit

29th 3 winning trades but I was happy with my 1st a 20 pip profit

136 pips profit for the month at £10 pip thats £1360.00

February

1st - - 20 pips, for those who do more than 1 trade then the opportunity did arise to make the loss back

2nd + 20 pips and last night’s loss recovered

3rd + 20 pips and in profit for the month

4th Waiting til just before 8pm and downward trend spotted with an easy 20 pips, Nick’s results suggest two prior to that that I missed.

So that brings us nicely up to date and to the end of the trail. I will be suggesting to Graham that we move this to the recommended pile. A word of caution however, please do not think you can pick this up over night and make instant profits, it will take a a few weeks to get your head around it and then a few more before you stop referring to the manual. I strongly recommend paper trading until you are comfortable with the system. But once you are you will be very happy, from my results, I would suggest you can make a £1000 a month without too much of a problem. Nevertheless a good trial and I will be adding to my portfolio.

You can get Markets Mastered (Trade With A Day Job) here:

http://www.cash-master.com/marketsmastered.php

Day 24

GBP/USD  +4.5%  (0%)
EUR/USD  +5%    (+23%)
Scalps       0%     (+36%)

Two nice trades on the GBP/USD and EUR/USD today but the scalps resulted in a break-even day.