Monday 9 Nov
I have to get my poorly car fixed this morning. It is highly unlikely that there will be an update today.
Well, £100 lighter, but car fixed (for now), I managed to get back to my ‘puter at 13:30. The author does not recommend trading at this time, and I can see why; the FTSE just loped around a 10-point trading range, and there was no momentum in either direction. I can see from my charts that there was a big move this morning at 08:30, which probably was the trade for today.
Oh well, always tomorrow!
I did manage a couple of small trades £3.30 profit, so the bank now stands at £125.30, which corrects the small loss I made on Friday, so I am happy with that. The Dow (NYSE) has followed the FTSE up but hasn’t provided any further momentum as I hoped would, and with no major news expected today I fell there is little point in trying to flog this dead donkey.
I could continue trying to trade the trend reversals as the trend hit’s the tops and bottoms of the range, picking up the odd pound or two, and this is valid so long as I use exactly the same strategy as described in the manual, but the Dax is going to close in a few minutes and I’d rather leave it alone for today.
I started with a loss today of £9. This was a valid TTT set-up that almost reached the point of locking in a profit before it fell away.
Then there was a big upwards movement, which unfortunately did not meet the TTT criteria as the signals were too far apart. TTT suggests the signals must only be a “few minutes apart”; I have translated this in to a rule that the signals can only be a maximum of 3 minutes from each other. It sorely tested my patience and discipline to sit and watch a lot of upwards movement that I cannot get involved with. But, taking the lessons of this week, I just sat on my hands and waited for the next valid TTT trade.
Several trades followed that just got to the lock in profit stage then fell back, that eventually got me to just under break-even after four hours of trading.
There were also several big moves which did not meet entry criteria as the second signal proceeded the first signal, which is the wrong way around.
This is very frustrating, so with some major US news due at 13:30 (non-farm payroll, which is the USs unemployment rate statistic) I decided to take a break and come back at 13:15.
The news was bad, with a large sell off. Unfortunately every time I tried to enter a trade it timed out, everyone was trading I suppose and the poor servers melted . So I think I will take my small loss for today and call it quit’s. This news item has caused the market to act strangely all week
Bank now £122.00
Thursday 5th November – day 4 and no firework jokes!
This morning there was a lovely set-up at around 08:20 with a massive sell off in both the FTSE and Dax. Unfortunately for me some wazzock thought this was a great time to phone me so I missed it . My lesson for today then: let the phone ring, theyll phone back if it is important!
After the call I was strongly tempted to jump in, but I kept remembering my recent poor discipline and followed the TTT rules and waited for the next set-up. Perhaps I have learned something after all! As Wilson states in the TTT update (supplied with the manual) you have 12 hours to find a trade, so there is no need to rush.
So I had to wait until 09:30 for another set-up as I missed another one. I knew today had some big news items regarding the state of the UK economy, and the first of these was due at 09:30. I suspected the market would react strongly, as the forecast was Bullish. Manufacturing Production data was l better than expected, so I jumped on this rally (there was a TTT set-up so it was a valid trade) and I easily made the target.
I would like to expand on some of my recent comments. On Tuesday I made a loss because I did not follow the system. We are all prone to mistakes and I wanted to be open about mine. Yesterday, although a good day, I made another mistake; this one I got away with. The mistakes on Tuesday were (#1) jumping in when there wasnt a TTT set-up because (#2) I was starting to feel fire-proof after recent good trades and (#3) I was under pressure to get the trade done and dusted quickly. Really I should not have traded Tuesday at all. Wednesday I stayed in a trade to squeeze an extra point, even though I said I wouldnt attempt loss recovery in Tuesdays blog entry. Having reported a loss I want you folks to know this was because I did not follow the TTT rules and for you not to regard TTT as broken in some way.
I will follow the rules (I have written 100 lines of this as punishment for Tuesday and Wednesday).
So, job done today, bank now at £123.70. This puts me at approximately day 2 on the profit chart (which should be £121 bank).
Wednesday Nov 4 (Day 3)
Job done today, but a very slow burner. My lack of patience got me in to a long (buy) of the Dax at 08:05. I got out at 08:45, having reached the daily target plus a wee bit more (lack of discipline).
I really need to re-read the traders creed (website link included in the manual) and work on patience and discipline. I was fortunate today, I wasn’t yesterday.
Anyhow, job done in under an hour. My real trading bank now stands at £113.20.Note that I started trading for real on Monday so I am ignoring the previous results from my demo account and counting today as day 3.
In hindsight I should not have attempted to trade this morning. After an initial sharp drop (which did not meet the entry criteria) and retracement (which also did not meet the entry criteria) the chart went “sideways”, trading within a narrow band. I initially thought the trend down would continue and my first trade made a loss. I was fortunate enough to get most of this loss back on the next trade. Then lost it all again on the third trade.
The charts are “messy” with the indicators looking like writhing snakes, continually crossing each other, and in 90 minutes since market open there have been no clear moves after the initial one.Even as I write this there has been a sharp move down (which meets entry criteria) immediately followed by a reversal.
Due to medical appointments today, I can’t sit at the computer waiting for the right move, so I am going to have to take my loss of £8.30 on the chin, which puts me slightly better than square one (£2.30 up overall).
This is all a learning experience, and learning not to trade charts this messy, and recognising that I lost patience and discipline (corner stones of trading) are what I have learned today. It is not all bad though, having the courage to walk away is no small matter, and I congratulate myself on being able to do that; I walked away even though there is an hour before I have to leave to go to the hospital.
The target tomorrow is remains unaltered, there will be no attempt at loss recovery. Trading is a long-term activity, and the odd hiccough is to be expected. I hope that we don’t have too many of them!
I managed to watch the first innings of the final, initially great bowling getting New South Wales into trouble, and great hitting from Brett Lee.
The result of the trade was as follows:
New South Wales vs Trinidad and Tobago:
Profit to date: £10.74
Well that completes the Champions League tournament, and will continue with the test when the Indian Premier League starts in March.
The second semi-final was a much more even contest, so much so, with only seconds to the first being bowled, both teams were under even money on Betfair! The result of the trade though was as follows:
Trinidad and Tobago vs Cape Cobras:
Profit to date: £5.66
The final is being played tomorrow, would be nice to head into the break between the Champions League and the Indian Premier League ahead of the game.
The first of the two semi-finals turned into a very one-sided affair between the two Australian state sides, as Victoria lost early wickets and never got going.
The result of the trade was:
New South Wales vs Victoria:
Loss to date: £0.67.
Back tomorrow with the other semi-final.
Have been battling against a very heavy cold for the last few days, so did not post yesterday evening….
Sunday 18th October 2009:
New South Wales vs Somerset:
Odds did not meet system criteria, so no trade.
Trinidad & Tobago vs Eagles:
Monday 19th October 2009:
Only one match today, as this was the final match in the “league” round of games.
Cape Cobras vs Delhi Daredevils:
I want to say here that two wickets were taken in the 11th over of the Delhi innings, and as I was calculating what the second bet would be to close the trade, the second wicket fell, and I have taken the odds with the second wicket to fall, so therefore the profit would not normally have been this large.
Profit to date: £4.81
There are three matches left now in the tournament, the semi-finals and the final. The next game, the first of the semi-finals is on Wednesday.
Two more matches today, the trade results were:
Cape Cobras vs Victoria:
Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Daredevils:
Another match where the odds did not meet the system criteria, so no trade.
Loss to date: £3.78
Looking at the early odds for tomorrow on Betfair, looks like there will be only one trade tomorrow as well, but we’ll see what happens then.