March 28, 2010

Dutching Diamond – End of Trial Review

Over the past month, I’ve been looking at a dutching system where bets are placed on three horses in selected races.

The Dutching Diamond system arrives as a 16 page eBook, of which 3 pages are used to detail the selection method and 10 pages are dedicated to the official results for the past year. Details on how to work out the stakes required for the dutching bets is also covered in some detail. Recovery staking is covered in the manual along with the pros and cons of the outlined options.

The system appears complex at a first glance, but is actually fairly simple to follow. The checks involved should take no more than 10-15 minutes every day. Be aware that the system does rely on the paper version of The Racing Post (as not all information required is provided on the Racing Post web site).

There is an associated tipping service that does all the work for you and a quick call to the premium telephone number yields a short message detailing the days selections. The number used is an 0844 number so calls cost only 5p per minute. The message is very short, so costs are kept to a minimum. Three months access to the tipping line is included in the price of the system.

At the beginning of the trial, I used the Racing Post to determine the selections then double-checked them with the tipping line. Once it became apparent that my checks were yielding the same selections, I just relied upon the tipping line as a time saver. The tipping line is excellent – the messages are very clear, all the relevant information is provided and the message usually ends with an indication of when the next days tips will be available, which is great if you need to schedule your time.

So, how did the system perform?

I started the trial with a bank of £2000 and an aim of winning £10 per race. On a loss, I opted to just recover the loss and NOT to recover the missing profit – this was just a measure of keeping my stakes to a minimum. At the end of the trial, my bank had risen to £2,220 – an 11% rise – an excellent return.

Interestingly if I had opted to make £10 profit on each race (i.e. opting to recover lost profit after a losing race) then my profit would have risen to £550 – a fanatastic 27.5% rise.

With that sort of return, you are probably wondering why I didn’t opt to take the profit per race at the beginning of the trial. The answer revolves around my one concern about the system – the staking. The stakes for any race are dictated by the odds of the three selected horses and the profit that you are attempting to make. Using the suggested parameters in the eBook, and assuming a £10 profit, you could be staking anything up to £90 as the overall stake on the first race in a sequence. As the eBook suggests a maximum cycle of 4 races, the stakes can rise alarmingly quickly, and you could be betting hundreds of pounds on a single race just to make a £10 profit.

To illustrate this last point, during the trial period the largest initial stake was about £48 and my largest stake overall was £671 (this was on the third race of a sequence).

To be fair to the author, he does point out the risks associated with the staking plan and gives 4 options that can be followed – from total non-recovery of losses, through to a profit per race. Obviously the risk increases accordingly, and you should take careful stock of both your bank and your aversion to risk before deciding which strategy to follow.

As the author suggests qualifying races must return a 10% “profit margin”, it would also be possible to adjust this figure upwards in order to keep the staking levels down.

Overall, the system/service is really good. The system is easy to follow and the associated tipping line is run very professionally. The system has proven itself to give an excellent return over the trial period. However, I am extremely concerned at the high risk associated with the staking plan (which could wipe you out if there was a severe losing run), so I am awarding this system a status of NEUTRAL.

You can get Dutching Diamond here:

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Alistair Moffatt


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