In a similar vein to a recent review I posted for the Cashmaster blog (Risk Free Trading) – I have recently been following another offering to the risk free/low risk, profit making market – Early Bird Racing.
This is available at an irresistible £34.99 – with a 60 day money back guarantee via Clickbank.
The E-book provides you with a 16 page overview of how the system operates and refreshingly only 2 of these pages are given over to explaining how to use the Betfair betting exchange.
The system is simplicity itself and as the title suggests, requires that you take early prices using one or two selected Bookmakers the night before. The following day simply lay off the selections at a time to suit and hopefully you will have bagged yourself a small (compared to the back stake placed), but easy ‘risk-free’ profit.
Also provided in the purchase is a nice spreadsheet package that makes the staking options devilishly simple. Also, included in this is a handy facility to enable you to overlay/underlay your lay stake. This is a neat idea that still enables those with a strong gambling instinct to take a punt on any race and yet, still have a win/win situation. So, if your selection has steamed since backing it the night before – if you ‘underlay’ the lay stake –selection wins you take a larger profit, if it loses you will still make a modest profit. This works the other way too, so if for example, the selection is no longer favourite and you believe its’ chances are not significant against other opponents/factors – you can ‘overlay’ enabling you to take a bigger profit if it loses and less if it wins!
The two final pages illustrate how the author made over £1200 in a month between June and July of last year (using £100 stakes). Impressive stuff, considering the risk to the bank is minimal!
Following a simple selection criteria, the intention is to find horses whose prices are perceived to steam overnight/the following day as more money in the market gets piled onto your selection. This can of course work the other way with the selection occasionally going against the grain and drifting out. Using the spreadsheet supplied the method explains how to remove yourself from any potentially dangerous situation meaning that you will take a loss albeit a modest one that wont have you losing sleep. In this particular situation, the spreadsheet will enable you to calculate & if necessary underlay your lay stake to avoid making a loss on both outcomes, instead making a loss on one ie. If selection wins: £0.00 profit / selection loses: £x loss.
Although it is suggested that you stick to a particular time each day to place your lay stakes ‘en –bloc’. If you do this, you will have to take whatever price is offered at that time, which clearly may not be the most profitable time to lay the selection off. The authors’ own results do show that he took prices at times that were wholly dependant upon how soon the first race of the afternoon occurred. This may be too variable for most, and unless you are very time aware (which I am not), you could miss your opportunity and potentially miss placing your lay trade completely. Clearly this is something to be avoided at all costs as you will be ‘exposed’ when the race(s) start/s.
Taking lay prices nearer to the off is preferred as you will be better placed to avoid situations where non-runners are declared. In the event of a favourite being ‘pulled’, the bookmakers will change their offered prices to reflect this significant change to the outcome of the race, in order to stay one step ahead . If ‘Rule 4’ applies to a particular race, simply enter the % reduction factor in the corresponding cell of the spreadsheet and the required lay stake to complete your trade is calculated for you! Clearly, if you take an earlier lay price and a favourite or other leading selection is ‘pulled’ closer to the start – having already ‘traded-out’, means that you are likely to be in a possible loss making situation, although any damage should be minimal.
One thing I did notice on occasion was that the weight of money available at the time of placing your lay stake on Betfair may not be sufficient to ensure you are fully matched, and you could find that getting out of a trade means your lay stake is spread over a range of increasing prices. This scenario , could wipe out any profit you may have taken had the single price offered had sufficient money behind it to cover all of your back bet in the first place. Alternatively, you wait until there is more liquidity in that particular race – closer to the start, taking a further chance that the price moves in your favour or possibly further against you.
I found that on a number of days during the last few weeks that I have been using this system – there were no ‘qualifying’ early prices to take advantage of which is key for this system to operate. So don’t expect every day to be a racing / profit making one.
The only thing that I can see being the real gamble with this method is the selection process itself. I don’t fully understand the underlying reason behind it. However, if the authors’ practical results are to be believed in their entirety, the selection process is sound ( this was also proved with the results I obtained(see below)). It is claimed that he had no situations where his selections’ early prices moved against him into a potential loss –making situation. All wins reported in his results show the prices steaming, during his very profitable month when making £1,200. For this review I achieved the following results as shown below :
Results / backing to £100 stakes:
13 days racing covered
26 selections steamed making a profit of £518
7 selections drifted : £170 loss
Overall profit/ including 5% Betfair commission of : £348
Pros :1. A simple / low risk system to operate, 2.Overlay / underlay option adds a real ‘fun’ element to working this method , 3. Trades complete prior to racing starts – comfort knowing that your position is covered regardless of the outcome of the race, 4. You decide when to use the method ie. you can dip and out at will as your day dictates
Cons : 1. Using a fixed time each day to trade out, will not be the best option for securing the best prices – so will need to be variable, which could be inconvenient for most people, 2. Depending upon your staking and frequency of use, this will require moving sums of money between bookies and Betfair accounts on a regular basis, 3. You have to be sufficiently regimented in your routine to check the early race prices for the following day, the night before at around 9pm….
I have to give this method the proverbial thumbs up as I found this to be a genuinely fun system to use with the staking made simplicity itself with the clever spreadsheet included in the deal. For £35, and provided you follow the rules – you WILL cover the purchase price in a very short space of time. If your betting has suffered a little fatigue of recent months/ years -treat yourself to this gem and realise the fun that can be had playing the markets and genuinely making a good profit in the process.
You can get the Early Bird Horse Racing System here:9 comments