November 2, 2008

First Past The Post – End of Trial Review

The First Past The Post system is a horse backing system that works by comparing data from two readily accessible web sites.

The system comes as a 10 page eBook, which lays out the method in an easy to follow manner. The system requires access to both the Racing Post website (www.racingpost.co.uk) and the Betfair Timeform website (form.horseracing.betfair.com). Determining the initial daily selections takes no more than 5-10 minutes and can be completed at any time prior to racing – a boon for those that go off to work early, as the selections can be made the night before.

Bets are placed at Betfair SP (BSP). When betting at BSP, it is possible to specify the minimum acceptable odds for a qualifying bet. The eBook suggests a minimum odds value of 4.0, which reduces the number of qualifying bets significantly. A second option with lower minimum odds is also shown in the eBook for those people that prefer a higher strike rate.

By betting at Betfair SP, the return can be significantly more than standard SP, as Betfair SP does seem to be higher than standard SP in most cases.

For staking purposes I followed the recommended staking plan in the eBook. Stakes were set to 2% of the bank taken at the start of each day, and then recalculated after the day’s racing in readiness for the next day. For the trial, I started with a bank of £500, making the initial stake £10.00 per race. The strike rate was expected to be around 18%.

The trial of the First Past The Post system lasted just over 1 month. During that time, there were 496 potential selections. Of those 496, 30 became non-runners and only 262 met the required odds criteria and led to betting opportunities. The trial provided a steady stream of winners – with the bonus of an occasional winner at high odds. At the end of the trial, the system had produced a profit of £151.85 (strike rate: 21.4%; ROI: 5.12%).

With the reduced odds, there were 466 betting opportunities, producing a profit of £48.57 (strike rate: 27.9%; ROI: 1.06%) – which backs up the claim in the eBook that it is better to operate at the higher odds cut-off.

I found the system very easy to use and it was pleasing to see that I could make my selections the night before racing rather than having to monitor the live markets.  I’m not convinced that the system is based on any real science, but you can’t argue with a strike rate of 21.4% and an overall profit of £151.85, against a starting stake of only £10. If the strike rate can be maintained over a long period of time, and coupled with the occasional winner at high odds, it seems that this system could produce a reasonable return. I would stick to the higher recommended cut-off on the odds, as the ROI on the secondary system is not worthwhile.

Overall the First Past The Post system receives a qualified thumbs up.

You can get First Past The Post here:

http://www.first-past-the-post.co.uk/cashmaster.htm

 

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Alistair Moffatt

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