December 10, 2013

First Place Winners

This service is provided by a chap named Steve Marsh and for £9.99 per month (33 pence a day) he sends out an email every morning with his tips for the days racing to come or he will advise that he has no selections.

The selections cover all 3 codes of racing, namely Flat, Turf & All Weather and N.H. and encompass Irish meetings as well as those in the UK.

The tips are for backing a horse to win and the bet is to be placed on Betfair, or indeed Betdaq, observing the following rules:

– Place 20% of your stake on the horse to win
– Place 80% of your stake on the horse to place
– If there are non-runners and a meet drops to less than 8 runners, do not bet
– Only use 3% of your bankroll as a total liability on each stake.

I have chosen to interpret this last rule as a maximum of 3% on a paper trading bank of £330 and will use £2 for a win bet and £8 for the place bets- a total of £10 per selection.

This report covers the period from the 18th Nov. 13 through to and including the 10th Dec. 13.I had 3 days during the 23 day period when there were no selections but I was advised by the daily emails of these days.So without further ado lets review how the period went.

Week 12 18th Nov-24th Nov

I received 19 selections through the week and 1 became a Non Runner and 1 day was a  No Selections day.So from the 18 selections there were 2 winners but the  returns did not prevent the win elements of the bets  at £2 per selection turning in a loss on the week of £16.63

The place bets at £8 per selection fared better with of the 7 of the picks making the frame.Once again though the returns gained were not sufficient to prevent a loss which was £8.51.

Opening Bank £404.60

Closing Bank  £379.46 a loss of 6.21% for the week.

Week 13 24th Nov-1st Dec

During the week I was sent  13 selections but unfortunately there were no winners amongst them.So the week resulted in a loss of some £26.00

The place elements of the selections saw 6 of the 13 making the frame but once again the returns were overcome by the losses which meant a losing week of £9.79.

Opening Bank £379.46

Closing Bank  £343.67 a loss of 9.43% for the week.

Final Period -2nd Dec-10th Dec

This is the final period and covers the days from 2nd Dec up to and including the 10th Dec -we started receiving the selections on 10th Sep 13.

I had selections on 7 of the 9 days in this period and had 1 winner  for a loss of £17.07.

The place elements of the selections saw 5 make the frame but again this produced a loss of of some £15.83.

Opening Bank £343.67

Closing Bank  £310.77 a loss of 9.57% for the week.

To put things in prospective we started back on 10 Sep with an opening bank of £330 and after 194 selections we have experienced a small loss of £19.23 a drop of 5.83%. So the concept hasn’t been a nightmare but neither has it produced a sustainable profit. There is of course the fee of £10 per month to pay for receiving the selections to  consider which would of course increase the losses.

Reporting has covered some 14 weeks and yes the period contained  the transition from Turf to NH/AW  and through late October until mid November the system started to recover. Ultimately however  it is let down by a lack of winners, over the entire period the average Strike rate is only 13.92% .

At no stage has the place elements of each selection really “washed its face” and comes in at 43.81%. It really needs to be poking up past 70% to make place betting a viable option.

So I am putting the system in the fail box as I believe that I have given the selections a long enough period to overcome the switch in codes and also the fact that the place bets just haven’t been successful enough to cover the longish losing runs that the win selections encountered.Failed

You can try First Place Winners here:

http://www.cash-master.com/FirstPlaceWinners.php

Filed under Backing,Each Way,Horse Racing Systems by Doug Wheatland

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