December 28, 2010

Greyhound Lays – Final Report

I have tried this service for three months, as the vendor requested. He recommends that you lay to a liability of £25 up to a maximum of 7/1 odds and I have done this throughout this period, choosing 2 or 3 or occasionally 4 bets per day from the selections sent. I have maintained the claimed strike rate of around 85% and have made a profit sufficient to pay three month’s subscriptions plus a small balance. On this basis, I have to say that this is Approved – but with some qualification.

You see, you are sent up to 12 selections each day, from which you choose, randomly, about a third of them as bets. My results from this process are as above but I cannot say that yours will be the same. You may do better, you may do worse, depending on your choices. Another point is that you have to attend very closely to the betting process because the money only comes in very rapidly in the last minute before the actual start, which is not by any means the scheduled start time. Unless you are quick on the draw, you can miss the odds.

As an example, I ran these bets on Betsender since 1st November, with a target bet time 10 seconds before the scheduled start. Out of 98 bets credited to the service in that period, I actually got only 51 of them matched at the 10 second point. This is because the odds follow the money and this hasn’t fully come in by 10 secs before the official start. As a matter of interest, I had set Betsender to bet at level stakes and out of those 51 bets, I achieved 22 pts of profit, so at a suitable point value, this would have created a profit as well. Since this was only for the two months since Nov 1st, it suggests that over the full three months, that points total might have been in the thirties.

Actually, daft as the selection process seems, when you consider that on any average day there are upwards of 500 dogs racing (some days up to 1000, even) and you are selecting only 3 or 4 of them to lose, it’s almost surprising that you ever pick a winner. Of course, each race has only 6 runners and one of them will be a winner, so the odds are not quite as good as they look. It’s an odd, you might say ideosyncratic service but whichever way you bet it, level stakes or the recommended staking, it does seem to work, so yes, it’s Approved. Final figures are:

Starting Bank £500.00
Final Bank £606.04
Strike Rate Overall 84.71%
Av. Odds 5.77
Percentage of bets chosen 28.10%

You can join Greyhound Lays here:

http://www.cash-master.com/greyhoundlays.php

Filed under Greyhound Racing,Laying by Terry Shepherd

1 comment

{ 1 comment }

Chris Williams January 4, 2011 at 11:24 am

Thank you Terry for providing a fair & accurate assessment of my greyhound laying service. As many of my subscribers have found, if you follow the rules then you should end up making a profit over time.

The random selection technique may seem a bit ‘daft’ (to use your words) but there is actually sound reasoning behind it. With a strike-rate of around 85% (long-term the figure is actually 87.6%), then there will be an unsuccessful lay on most days.

If your first random selection is successful – and you have an 85% probability of picking a successful lay – then all subsequent selections will stand a higher probability of hitting the unsuccessful lay. Clearly, if you lay all selections (as most punters are conditioned to do), then you will definitely hit the unsuccessful lays. The key am of choosing just a very few random selections each day is to try to avoid the unsuccessful lays

Personally, I have found that putting the bet into the market at 120secs before the race start time gets a good percentage of bets matched.

Incidentally, you may want to analyse your results to see what the strike-rate would have been if you had only placed a lay bet on the first selection following an unsuccessful lay. Whilst this results in fewer bets, you should find that the strike-rate is increased by quite a percentage – and that means a bigger profit

Chris Williams

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