September 11, 2016

In Running Trading

Inform Racing, a company that has provided Speed Ratings since 2003, has produced a rather neat method of enabling basic trading on races. The system “In Running Trading” costs £67 for an annual licence to operate the package, and a Windows computer with a Betfair or a Betdaq account will be required.

Downloaded, the race data comprises listings of historical BSP and lowest “in running” prices for each runner displayed on a spreadsheet. The macro enables the user to view the best opportunities for the would be “back to lay” and “Dobbing” trader. Having signed up for the system you then get a manual with instructions on how to download data and which also covers all the potential methods of using the data.

“Dobbing” is backing before the off and then putting up a Lay bet at half the Back price and double the stake looking to be matched in running- i.e double or bust=D.O.B. This provides, when both sides of a bet are matched, an “Evens” return less Betfair commissions, regardless of the final outcome of the race. In the event that the Lay bet is unmatched then the loss will be the sum on the Back bet.

As the data can be open to interpretation there will be no hard and fast selections for a race or indeed which races should be selected. That said, the manual does guide the user toward the most successful methods.

For Dobbing I am using handicap races for older horses with 15 or less runners and then looking at class, going – and for flat/AW races the draw- also projected BSP for the likely selections rather than relying on just the historical data.

I have decided to start with a £50 bank and on day 1 the back will be £2 and thus £4 per lay per selection.

Results.

This is the 9th and final report and covers the period 26th Aug -9th Sep inclusive.

I continued during the last 2 weeks of the trial with the “mechanical” approach to dobbing selections, as outlined in report No.8.

After a quiet 3 days I started with two losses for the period however patience was rewarded and once again produced a successful run of dobs:-

 

29/08/2016 15:15 EPSOM KING CRIMSON -1
29/08/2016 16:40 CARTMEL BAILEYS CONCERTO -1
31/08/2016 14:50 SOUTHWELL SANDGATE 0.95
03/09/2016 15:05 STRATFORD SHARP RISE 0.95
03/09/2016 15:35 STRATFORD GOWANAUTHAT 0.95
04/09/2016 14:00 DUNDALK ABSTRACTION 0.95
05/09/2016 15:40 PERTH ENDEAVOR 0.95
06/09/2016 17:55 GALWAY SAMANNTOM 0.95
06/09/2016 19:40 PERTH WEST END 0.95
07/09/2016 18:25 KEMPTON OCEAN LEGEND 0.95
09/09/2016 17:25 DONCASTER GET KNOTTED 0.95
        Total  6.55

 

This purely mechanical approach has provided 29 selections for a gain of 15.85 points (net) with a strike rate of 80%.

As users gain experience with the system it will become easier to spot more opportunities by incorporating some filters to increase the number of possible selections as I have done in the first 7 weeks of the trial.

For instance in the table above King Crimson had in previous attempts in a class 2 race failed to dob as he went onto to do on the 29th Aug. I would not normally have used West End on 6th Sep either as this was an amatuer riders race, although in this case it was in fact a successful dob outcome.

To recap on the first 7 weeks of the trial I concentrated on 4yr or older horses running in handicaps and a “dob history” of at least 60%. The last 4 runs all 50% or below and more than 12 runs.

Further refinement is done by working through going by comparison of the day’s prior times at the course compared to standard (RP diff/furlongs) to get an accurate going. Class of today’s race versus previous attempts at today’s class. Draw bias for Flat races. Finally I used a predicted BSP range of 6.0 to 20.0 and backed within the last 2 minutes before the off. I then laid at half the odds to keep in running.

From 25th June to 13th Aug I followed the above method and, with practice I was able to tweak for instance the last 4 runs if I felt it necessary, the system is by its nature a subjective selection process.

However starting from a known point it is easily possible as experience is gained to achieve similar results to those I obtained which were indeed excellent. I produced 67 selections with 64 of them successfully dobbing for a strike rate of 95% and a profit of 56.7 points (net).

These results, whether by using the mechanical approach for newcomers to racing or by those with some experience using filtering, were obtained across all 3 codes of racing and at a wide selection of tracks.

I really liked this product and of course more importantly the results I have achieved by using it..

So in conclusion I have no hesitation in giving In Running Trading a PASS.Approved2

You can get In Running Trading here:

http://www.cash-master.com/In-Running-Trading.php

 

Update 9th November 2016

This is an update on my progress with In Running Trading since the conclusion of the 12 week trial that ended on 9 Sep 16.

The system now supports a Desktop App which makes for an almost instant download of the data. Along with this rapid download, the data also contains all of the details required to make selections plus the official rating (OR) achieved for each race.

Using some simple logical filters – 9 in all – it sounds a lot but with very little practice they are easy to follow and are to be found under In Running Trading on the blog.

With these filters I have completed testing the results for the period 26 June 16 – 8 Nov 16 and managed a total of 127 qualifying selections of which 104 dobbed- a strike rate of 82% and a gain of some 76 points. My longest winning run was 16 and the longest losing run that occurred was 2 (3 times).

I will post results again in February 2017 at the height of the NH and Aw seasons but looking at the gains to date this would equate, if it continues, to some 200 plus points a year.

You can see my full results HERE.

You can get In Running Trading here:

http://www.cash-master.com/In-Running-Trading.php

 

Here’s a really helpful video showing how to identify high probability DOB’s:

 

Simple In Running Trading Tool Dobbing Strategy

There are a number of ways that you can look at the data included in the App, so a quick system has been created, with a number of rules that are simple to follow that has over an 18 week period, provided a healthy profit of 61 points.

Dobbing these selections would have a made a decent £1,224 profit using just £20 stakes, with a strike rate of over 70%.

This equates to over 175 points profit over a 12 month period and a profit using the same stakes of close to £3,500.

With the longest losing run during this period being just 2, you could be confident in placing larger stakes and even £40 a trade would make over £7,000 from this simple strategy over a twelve month period, were similar results to continue.

The biggest problem most punters face is patience and many cannot fathom the concept that there is always another race.

With some days during testing not having any bets at all this may trouble some traders but the key is to look long term and to see where you could be if you wait for those profitable horses that this system selects.

There is a spreadsheet that you can download at the bottom of the page which takes all results from the 26th June 2016 to 8th November 2016, showing all of those that passed the rules below.

In Running Trading Tool – Dobbing Strategy Rules

The rules may seem a bit long winded but are logical and very simple to apply as follows:-

1. Dobbing profit to be £70 or more. This was one of the first rules that I came up with after looking at the DOB tab over a number of weeks.

The software takes each runner and places an imaginary £10 Dobbing bet on every run and works out a profit or loss amount for each horse, including a default 5% exchange commission.

The resulting figure shows what you would have won or lost had you placed this £10 Dob stake on every horse on every run and is a simple way to narrow down those most likely to Dob again today, going on past results.

These horses are very simple to find as you can see on the image below, by clicking the DOB tab on the software , then the DOBReturn column (far right). This will sort the profit and loss amounts in order, making it easy to see all those at £70 or more.

(Please click any images to enlarge them for easier viewing).

dob-sort
2. The horse must have dropped to at least 65% of the BSP or lower in its last 4 races.

If a horse is a successful DOB, it will drop to 50% or more of the BSP. So a horse that starts at 10.0 will drop to 5.0 or less in running. By making sure a horse has dropped to at least 65% of the BSP in running in its last 4 races we ensure that the horse is at least getting close to Dobbing if not indeed actually dobbing very recently.

On the image below we have clicked the little arrow to the left of Presenting Junior who has a positive £70.50 DOBReturn profit. This opens up a drop down list of the horses form, in running high and low prices and BSP plus the percentage amount dropped to in all of its races.

As you can see, Presenting Junior has actually dropped to at least 65% of the BSP in running in 8 of its last 9 runs so would pass rule 2 on this occasion.

You can actually see that the horse has successfully Dobbed 5 times from the last 9 races as this is shown as 50% or less in the far right column for each runners form and is also highlighted for you in Green on the software.

dob2

3. Horse must have Dobbed at today’s Distance. With the varying differences in race distances at many courses you may want to allow half a furlong longer or shorter here but this rule is just to be sure the distance is not a problem for this horse in running and that it has Dobbed successfully before over today’s trip.

This is the same idea for rules 4 and 5 and just ensures that a horses run style may not be inconvenienced by other factors.

A horse up in class may struggle to run how it normally would in a lower grade and not be able to drop in price. Similarly a horse may struggle to run in its normal way on Soft ground but run confidently enough on Good or firmer fro its price to drop in running.

4. Horse must have Dobbed at today’s Class

5. Horse must have Dobbed on today’s Going.

6. No Novice races. These have proven to be poor races to trade in over the period.

7. The horse must have run within the last 45 days. Just to make sure that the horse is race fit and not struggling in running during the race.

8. The horse must have run more than 14 times. This makes sure that we have enough evidence and can make a decent claim on a horses past Dobbing form. Take a horse that has only run 5 or 6 times and you do not really have enough to go on, whether it has Dobbbed successfully in these races or not.

You can see the number of times a horse has run on the software image above by looking at the Races column.

9. Price nearest the off between 3.0-39.9. The evidence here is that horses too low or too high do not prove to be decent Dobbing propositions and whilst you may not be able to be exact about this close to the off, it should offer a guide to the prices that you back at to lay off at in running.

10. Maximum number of runners to be 16.

Whilst everyone likes a mechanical system, there are some rules above that can be adjusted to suit yourself and other factors you may want to check before trading.

I think sticking to the 10 rules will provide most profitable for you but a quick check on other factors such as the stall number in flat racing, a very inexperienced jockey and perhaps if the horse is drifting wildly in the betting as three examples.

You can download the Spreadsheet by clicking the link below.

In Running Trading Tool – Dobbing Strategy

The results of these filters is a healthy 61 points and a strike rate of just over 70% and annualised would be some 175 plus points.

There is much more to the software than just finding profitable Dobbing trades, so to find out more about the In Running Trading Tool and to get your copy today, then please hit the link below.

http://www.cash-master.com/In-Running-Trading.php

The cost of the software is just £67 for a full 12 month licence with all free upgrades and additions etc. during this period.

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems,Laying by Doug Wheatland

2 comments

{ 2 comments }

Rafal Dronia September 11, 2016 at 11:11 am

Im traing different aproaches and so far all profitable
Noticed also recovery would work great with longes running run of two.
ALso your mechanical approach i get more selections not always profitable.

Dasha M. October 7, 2016 at 5:47 pm

Hi!

I’m a bit got confused with abbreviations…
…”compared to standard (RP diff/furlongs)”
Please, tell, what -standart RP diff- means? Racing Post… what diffs.. ?

For now i’m comparing current race by three parameters: distance, surface of course, and course itself. But what sad, % of winnings is still unviable

Maybe unclear “standart RP diff” – exactly addition that will help me 🙂

Thanks!

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