September 1, 2012

LAY FROM 3 – Final Review

Week#7 (25thAugust – 31st August  incl.)

Another losing week and with the bank  too far gone to stand any realistic chance of recovery with only a week or two left, I will curtail the trial.

NOTE : Start balance in both cases £1,000 &  a losing lay is a winning bet for us!

==============================================

LAYING TO £30 LIABILITY STAKES
Weeks P/L : £ -61.43
Current balance : £416.30 (£583.70 loss)
Strike rate : 78.48% (350 losing lay bets out of 446 selections)

NOTE: (laying to £10 level stakes would be showing a £807.20 loss!!!)

LAY Results breakdown by ‘race type’

FLAT : £-403.70 / NATIONAL HUNT: £-196.36 / ALL-WEATHER : £12.03
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

BACKING TO £10 LEVEL STAKES

Weeks P/L : £ -146.50
Current balance : £1428.92 (£428.92 profit)

(Note : in calculating these BACK figures, for convenience I have simply used the LAY price,
so this would need to be factored into the figures for a slightly more representative figure)

 

And so the conclusion of my trial of the Lay From 3 software.

 

“A SYSTEM THAT BRIDGES THE GAP BETWEEN NOVICE AND VETERAN” – LayFrom3 website

The marketing pitch on the website suggest that the makers have seen profitable use between September and October 2011 using £100 level stakes, amassing a total profit of over £8,000 (in 2 months)! 80 points profit in 2 months from lay betting, a very impressive claim indeed!
Regretably, the trial results were unable to replicate anywhere near this level of success in a similar time frame….

The software is installed and run from your PC /VPS. Each day you need to run the ratings analyser on races of your own choosing, (there is no recommendation of which races to aid a profitable betting strategy).
The software uses the Racing Post to rate the first three favourites and selects the one in it’s opinion to be the lowest rated. Quite what the ratings methodology used here is unknown but is form based using the days  race card for its analysis. For most maiden races where a favourite horse has no previous form, the race is not suitable for consideration. Selections had a ceiling lay price of 8.0 and races of less than 8 runners at the off, were not considered at all.  I chose to work with a realistic fixed liability lay of £30 which I figured was quite  reasonable.

Although the software would select the least favourite of the three, I found the software prone to faults displaying an error message all too frequently when running through the race cards. This happened almost every day, whilst this was not a software crash, the frequency of popup type errors became a little tiresome. Perhaps this was specific to the Windows Server operating system on my VPS,  but I would have thought an error like this should have been picked up during test(?).

The selections themselves though are the problem with this system. The strike rate when laying these picks is simply too low. So using these selections on their own is unlikely to make you any real money in the long term as illustrated by the tattered bank balance after 7 weeks. Is it likely to offer good fortunes when selecting a specific race type…? My trial results would suggest not although at a stretch you may be tempted to try All-Weather tracks with this system over a longer period, as this one did at one point show a reasonable profit before a recent spell of winners put paid to that.

Perhaps if you have a specific race selection system in your betting portfolio and as part of your method you need to identify the weakest form based runner of the first three then maybe this tool could assist you in your quest.

One  thing you do need to be aware of is that the picks are only considered valid lay selections when the other two favourites are also in the running, so unless you wish to place bets manually just before the off (which because of the potential number of selections on any one day – I DO NOT RECOMMEND!) you will almost certainly need to consider using in conjunction with a betting bot that has a  ‘must run’ selection facility. I used the Bet Engine  which did an admirable  job, but I am sure that there are also others you could consider for this task.

However, Lay from 3 has to be consigned to the FAILED bin – it simply couldn’t maintain a sustained level of profit and didn’t in fact hit profit at all during the trial period!

You can get Lay From 3 here:

http://www.cash-master.com/LayFrom3.php

Filed under Horse Racing Systems,Laying by Guy

2 comments

{ 2 comments }

charles September 2, 2012 at 9:10 am

Thanks for all your hard work in reviewing this Guy. I was hoping
there might be an angle in this somewhere to extract some regular
profit , but it seems your have looked at all the possibilities !
I agree with all your comments. It is a shame they only give you 7 days
to apply for a refund . One obviously needs a a lot longer to test it out, and
£49 is not expensive if it works , but not over cheap either.

Guy September 2, 2012 at 6:57 pm

Thank you for the appreciative comment.
I agree £49 would represents good value if the system were to offer even a degree of profitability! Keep it simple is the old adage and the premise here is very simple : rate and lay the third favourite… but there doesnt appear to be a profitable edge in doing this. Shame, I had hoped for much better….

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