January 3, 2008

LayPro88 – End of Trial Review

I’ve reached the end of my month long trial with the LayPro88 system, so it’s time to try to draw some conclusions from the results.  As I have actually been logging the results of the system since the 24th September, I thought it would be more useful to base the conclusions on the 3 months worth of data, rather than a single month – and, as discussed in an earlier post, I will also look at separating out Irish races to see if that has any impact on the overall outcome.

Just to remind everyone, LayPro88 is a laying system which comes with an associated staking plan. The system requires you to look at odds just before the off, so you either need to sit in front of your computer all day, or employ a betting bot to do the dirty work for you.  I have been using MarketFeeder Pro for the trial – it comes with it’s own scripting capabilities so it can be “programmed” to run a number of different systems/strategies.

The strike rate of the LayPro88 system, as the name suggests, is supposed to be about 88%. For the test, I have been using a base stake of £25 and following the LayPro88 staking plan at all times.

Looking back at the results for all races (including Irish races) gives the following picture:

Total number of bets: 503
Winning lay bets: 438
Strike rate: 87.1%
Profit/Loss: £4412.75 (176.51pts)

The predicted strike rate of 88% appears to be borne out over an extended period of time, and the profit over 3 months is very good at 176.51 points.

Excluding Irish races from the results, gives us the following:

Total number of bets: 397
Winning lay bets: 351
Strike rate: 88.4%
Profit/Loss: £4211.75 (168.47pts)

With Irish races removed from the mix, we get a slightly improved strike rate. The overall profit is slightly lower, due to the smaller number of races, but our rate of return (profit per race) is much improved.

On the face of it then, we have an excellent system with a consistent strike rate which generates excellent profits. So would I recommend it?  Well, actually, the answer is only a qualified YES – provided you understand what you are getting into!

The problem with the system is that your bank can go through a series of severe ups and downs on the way to generating that overall profit.  With a £25 base stake, I think you are looking at a starting bank of around £5000 (200 points). If you start off with a good month, then your bank will probably never be severely threatened; however, if you happen to start with a bad month, then you could be looking at a severely depleted bank. If you took November 2007, for example, a starting balance of £5000 would have reduced to £1500 at the lowest point in the month.

If you have a large bank balance, and you are happy to ride out the sometimes severe lows, then you should be able to take home a decent return. But for the smaller investor – beware.

I have two alternative suggestions if your heart can’t stand the rollercoaster ride associated with the standard staking plan:

1. Bet using level stakes. So far the system has been profitable at level stakes every month that I have been monitoring it. At £25 level stakes, we would have generated £2141 (85.65pts) profit on all races, or £1896 (75.85pts) profit if you exclude Irish races.

2. Bet to a small daily target. Like Graham suggested for the Betalay system, it may be better to just set yourself a small target profit per day (say £50 if running at £25 stakes) and stop when the target has been reached. If you do this, however, you will need to operate a different staking plan as the LayPro88 staking plan spreads it’s recovery over too many races.

Finally, as with all systems that require the odds to be monitored just before the off, you should think carefully about using a betting bot to do the hard work for you. There are many bots out there (Graham has already covered The GreyHorse Bot) – many of which can be scripted to run a variety of strategies. Betting bots are invaluable if you value your free time/sanity.

Happy New Year everyone – and here’s to a very successful and profitable 2008.

You can get LayPro88 here:

http://www.laypro88.com/grahamlaurie.htm

 

Filed under Betting Bots,Laying by Alistair Moffatt

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