TUFXP Methods

In May 2008 I started using The Ultimate Forex Predictor and have blogged every trade here up to Christmas 2009 using a particular strategy that worked very well indeed.

In fact, it made me a total of £63,020 tax free profit trading at £10 per pip level stakes.

In February 2010, the team at TUFXP asked me to beta test their new version of TUFXP, which they called, TUFXP 2. I was more than happy to give it a go and was very, very pleased with the results with the default settings.

Unlike the previous version where I had to run separate charts on different time frames to check for qualifying trades, this version only required me to have one chart open, on one time frame, and to use a strategy that required a lot less time at the computer.

Here are the settings:

And the trading method is simple:

1. GBPUSD 5 minute chart.

2. Trading times are 6am-10am and 1pm-4pm.

3. Enter a trade on a qualified PTP but ONLY if you also have a matching colour on the Parabolic indicator AND the Moving Average. Aim to scalp 20 pips using the TESS 100%  stop loss up to a maximum of 35 pips. Note: this means when the market hit’s the entry point, there must be the same colour parabolic and MA on the entry candle.

4. Aim for 20 pips profit per day. If the first trade of the day wins, quit for the day. If the first trade loses, take another trade. If that loses as well then quit for the day. If the second trade wins, take one more then quit after that regardless of the result.

5. Don’t trade the first Friday of the month as this is Non Farm Payroll day and trading is too choppy.

6. That’s it! I don’t pay any attention to news items, support and resistance, pivot points or any of that jazz.

I use the FXCM feed: GBPUSD.FXCM

I will blog the results daily from now on.

I hope this is of help.

If you don’t have The Ultimate Forex Predictor already you can get it here:

http://www.cash-master.com/tufxp.php

The Dubai Method

Hello all, my name is John Wheatland and I have been using TUFXP since the middle of last year and I thought it’d be the chance to show how a few subtle tweaks can make a remarkable change in profit. I like the idea of switching off after one trade and being able to concentrate on  other things such as my own trading strategies so I have developed several filters to help avoid some losers.

The settings are exactly the same as standard for the PTPs except we add in one more moving average which is the 50 SMA. This will help us to avoid trying to counter trend trade. I also use the stochastics within TESS on the 5 minute chart. This gives a good visual representation of when price has become overbought or oversold. There are occasions when a trade can win in these conditions but I have found it to be much more productive if you avoid the danger areas. The final piece to the jigsaw is called camarilla levels. They are a type of pivot points but calculated in a different way. To use these levels you can either use a camarilla calculator on the web or use a custom indicator within Metatrader 4. This is a global and extremely popular trading platform and is used by hundreds of brokers worldwide, some spreadbetting companies are even beginning to use it.

Trading Method:

1)GBPUSD 5 minute FXCM chart.

2)Enter a trade on a qualified PTP but ONLY if you also have a matching colour on the Parabolic indicator AND the Moving Averages (20 EMA and 50 SMA). The stochastics must NOT be in the overbought or oversold area. This is highlighted by the 20 and 80 levels. (see pics below). The camarilla level of H3 or L3 must be 25 pips or more away from take profit level.

3) Aim for 20 pips profit per day. If the first trade of the day wins, quit for the day. If the first trade loses, take another trade. If that loses as well then quit for the day. If the second trade wins, take one more then quit after that regardless of the result.

It sounds an excessive amount of filters but I have over 4 months worth of data and my results back it up. Below is a chart showing profit for the standard method and my filter method:

The John Simon Method

Neil Spare, who heads the support team at TUFXP gives 3 weekly video presentations aimed at helping owners of TESS to use it profitably.  He gives sound demonstrations of winning and losing trades, but he leaves us to make a judgment as the signal appears, as to whether or not to take the trade.  This I cannot do, but it occurred to me that I could develop a set of rules that would suit my personality and trading style.

I spent 2 months back-testing a series of ideas aimed at identifying those signals that would probably lose money, so that I could trade the remainder.  I am an amateur who is now making small weekly profits, and I propose to list the settings I use, and explain my criteria.  I have been making a profit for a while, but I would need to do so for a year or more before I could claim to have found the traders Holy Grail.  So this information comes with no claims other than it suits me.

I have a set of criteria aimed at meeting any chart situation I might meet.  If the relevant criteria are met, I always take the trade, and if they are not met, I never take the trade.  There are two caveats:

  1. I no longer wish to work full time, and therefore trade only between 6.15am and 10.00am.  I am frequently finished by between 8.00am and 8.30am.
  2. Because of my limited trading hours, a target of 100 pips per week is unrealistic.  My target is a more achievable 40 pips per week.  If I can make consistent weekly profits, I may gain in confidence and raise my bet size to a level that makes a useful income.

I believe that if I have a system, I must always follow it.  The hardest thing to do is to not take a trade when the criteria are not met.  But as I found the system working, so I found this easier.  But disciplined trading is not easy.  It only looks and sounds easy.

My criteria take some learning, and I did this by back-testing them until I understood them all and I was making good profits.

PTP Settings GBPUSD.FXCM 5 minute chart:

Strength 8

Apply low volume filter

Show Super PTP’s

Sound alarm on new PTP’s

Entry at 50% of one bar

Initial Stop: 100% on 1 bar

Scalp: 24 pips (This gives a profit of 20 pips after the spread – 21 if no slippage.)

IG Stop: 20 pips (See exit strategy below).  IG Scalp: 20 pips

‘Switch on’ these: Stochastic, Volume, Professional buying bars and selling bars, Pivot Points, Parabolic SAR – all with default settings.

Moving averages: 20ema and 50sma

Trading times: 6.09am to 10.30am. Do not trade a signal at 6.05am although it may not reach entry until 6.20am

My Criteria:

The support and resistance levels are shown in TESS by green and red lines and the DP (Daily Pivot) is in blue. The levels of yesterday’s close, high and low, are represented in TESS by black lines – and these 3 are referred to below, as ‘black lines’. I do not use the Initial Stop level when trading, but use it as a guide for entry: I hesitate to make any  trades where the stop is 60 or above and never trade where the initial stop is 70 or above.

Entry Strategy:

The Signal bar must also be confirmed by both the 20ema and the parabolic SAR being the same colour as the signal bar at the point of entry. If, at the signal bar the ‘Dot’ is the wrong colour, it must lie before the entry level – so that it will change to the signal bar colour before entry. If the dot is on or after the entry level, the signal bar will not be confirmed at entry level – no trade.

The Signal bar must be confirmed by the Stochastic.  (Stochastic: Blue = long, Green = short).    A late stochastic confirming after the signal bar is OK provided that the confirmation occurs before the entry bar.

The Signal bar must be confirmed by the direction of the 50sma. Also, if the prices in the hours up to 6.00am are moving above the DP and reasonably close to it, take only long signals, and vice versa for prices below the DP. Ignore this where prices have already reached R1 or S1 by the time of the first signal after 6.00am

The Signal Bar must be 11 or more (or 5 or less) before support/resistance/DP, or close on or through the DP/S/R.  Ignore black lines

The signal bar must be 10 or more before (or be after) a price level that is a multiple of 100.

Entry level must be 10 or more before or 10 or more after a price level that is a multiple of 100.

Entry level must be 11 or more before (or be after) support/resistance/DP (ignore distance from black lines).

The signal bar must have a TESS stop of 14 or above, i.e. 6 pips between High & Low.

Take an entry later than 3 bars only when the signal bar is professional and prices have remained above the 20ema for a long signal and below the 20ema in a short signal.

Exit Strategy – All PTP trades:

Exit at scalp or at the TESS stop plus the spread, with a maximum stop of 30 and a minimum of 20, but if the TESS stop exceeds 47, set the stop at 20 including the spread. NOTE: Right now, (November 2010) I am trading with a 20 stop on all trades, because the market seems so uncertain.

0 comments