June 8, 2009

Nailed On System


This is a selection system from Anthony Gibson, in the form of a nine-page ebook, and is a fusion of his selection methods Money Talks and Early Money Talks.

The system is applied to both National Hunt, Turf and All Weather meetings, subject to the time of the year, providing certain criteria are met. Access to live prices is required during the morning, and I found during the test that to find selections took me no more than around fifteen minutes, even when there were five of six meetings to be looked at.

I took prices for the results of the test at two minutes to the off, so you could receive different results, based on when prices were taken.

There are two parts to the system (I called them Systems A & B to make life easier for me). System A relates to horses given certain price criteria, and information gained from the Racing Post. System B revolves around backing horses from certain trainers, both flat (turf and all weather) and National Hunt, providing certain criteria are met.

The results of the test were as follows:

System A:

Bookmaker SP: -£77.46
Betfair SP: -£70.16
Number of winners: 7
Number of selections: 21
Strike rate: 33.3.%

System B:

Bookmaker SP: £36.79
Betfair SP: £64.91
Number of winners: 50
Number of selections: 88
Strike Rate: 56.8%

Overall, a small loss was made, and normally running a test over two months would have given enough time for a system to show it’s true colours. I am not sure this can be said for System A, as there were only 21 selections (less than one every other day) found within the criteria during the test. There could be an argument behind laying these selections, but based on 21 selections, would need a longer time to see if this would still be the case.

The amount of profit shown by System B reflects the prices of the horses selected, as although the strike rate was very good, less than £1 was made per selection.

Therefore I would have to give the system overall a neutral rating, as although simple enough to implement and run, has not provided a level of profit that you would like to make from a system, but it would appear that running System B on it’s own would make a steady if unspectacular profit.

You can get Nailed On here:


Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by David Aston


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