July 4, 2015

The Zig Zag System

Remember, in blogging this that I can’t be too specific about the match selection procedures in case I give anything away, so apologies for vagueness.

You don’t need any special software to run this, it can all be done on Betfair, though if you do have software you can probably get your bets through more quickly, although that is no particular advantage.

So – the end of the week and, as expected with the system, the opportunities to trade using the rules are diminishing. There was only one early game, which was a men’s singles game. Later on there were eight potential games (one men’s and none women’s). I did manage to trade the first men’s game and this was the system working perfectly and easily, for a £20 stake I made a profit of £11.51 to a £20 stake. So that’s 4 profitable days from 5, a total of +£36.97 profit.

There are six potential trading matches today, though being the weekend I will probably leave it till Monday

Filed under General,Tennis,Trading by Dave Yeates

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July 3, 2015

Patton Racing Profits

Day 88

No winners today

Day -2 points  Cumulative -11.25 points

 

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Dave Yeates

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July 3, 2015

Betting Opportunity

Days 21/22

No winners this time

Days -9 points  Cumulative  -11.44

 

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Dave Yeates

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Correction

This wasn’t how I planned to start today’s blog but a very helpful reader has rightly pointed out that I have misinterpreted a column in the past results table in the JAS website (thank you reader).  The column is headed “Asset Win Rate” which I interpreted as the Win Rate for a successful trade, i.e. the odds.  The values are close to what I would expect for the trades but it’s not that at all!  It’s simply a column telling you how many times a signal on that currency pair has been successful i.e. it’s more a Success Rate.  So it’s like a Tipster telling you how often he has won when tipping a particular horse.  I’m not sure I can see any particular value in that statistic which is why I dismissed that as the interpretation.  Nevertheless it means my returns need correcting.  (Also I missed a ‘Tie’ earlier (see below) so I have included that in my corrected figures.)  I think it also means I should expand on how BOs work for those not familiar with them.

When you make a trade there is a Win Rate, it’s expressed as a %age and is effectively the odds. A win rate of say 70% means if the trade is successful there is a profit of 70% of your stake to be had i.e. in odds terms it’s 1.70 or 7/10 on. The exception to this is where the trade ends in a Tie, like cricket it’s rare but possible.  In this case most BO Brokers will just return the stake and treat it as a no bet but some take a view you are betting on higher (or lower) and a Tie is  not higher (or lower), a bit like a ‘zero’ on the roulette wheel.  I’m not aware of one who treats it like a ‘dead-heat’ at the bookmakers where half the stake is a lose and half a win but I’m sure there will be one somewhere!  Asking these questions is all part of the due diligence process.

Like bookmakers each BO Broker will quote their own Win Rate for a currency pair and shopping around can improve your win returns. This makes it much more difficult to monitor historical results if you are sound asleep when the signal comes in because you don’t know what the Win Rate for a trade was (this is what convinced me they were quoting the Win Rates to make historical assessment easier and not a Success Rate). And to make it even more difficult the Win Rate will not only vary from BO Broker to BO Broker but also from currency pair to currency pair. JAS recommend some BO Brokers so I took the time out yesterday to briefly review them and compare their Win Rates (this is not in any way a full review/comparison of BO Brokers and you should still do your own due diligence as I have said in my first blog on this service). The comparison, for the currency pairs used by JAS since my review started, looks like this …

Currency Pair

Option 24 Tradorax Grand Option ubinary BOSS Capital Option time Cherry Trade Average
AUD/CAD 68% 75% 78% 75%

74%

AUD/CHF

65% 75% 78% 75% 75% 74%
AUD/JPY 68% 75% 70% 78% 75% 70% 78%

73%

AUD/NZD

70% 75% 72% 78% 75% 75% 75% 74%
AUD/USD 72% 75% 70% 72% 75% 76% 73%

73%

CAD/CHF

71% 75% 78% 75%

75%

CAD/JPY

70% 75% 70% 78% 75% 78% 78% 75%

EUR/AUD

70% 75% 70% 72% 75% 75% 80% 74%

EUR/CAD

70% 70% 72% 78% 75% 75%

73%

EUR/GBP 72% 75% 70% 72% 85% 75% 70%

74%

EUR/USD

75% 85% 70% 72% 85% 80% 81% 78%
GBP/CHF 71% 75% 70% 78% 75% 75%

74%

GBP/JPY

72% 85% 70% 77% 85% 75% 70%

76%

NZD/CHF 71% 75% 70% 78% 75% 70%

73%

NZD/USD

72% 75% 70% 72% 75% 72% 80% 74%
USD/CAD 60% 75% 75% 72% 75% 80% 70%

72%

USD/CHF

70% 75% 70% 75% 75% 80% 85%

76%

USD/JPY 72% 75% 70% 72% 75% 75% 70%

73%

Except where there is only one Win Rate quoted the lowest Win Rate for a currency pair is shown in Red and the highest is shown in Green (an empty cell means the broker does not quote for that pair). So as you can see, to get the best rates for a signal you need to have accounts with at least 2 and maybe 3 BO Brokers.  But, Win Rates are not cast in stone and can change so if you are always looking for the best Win Rate for a trade you need to keep this table under constant review (your own Oddschecker for BO Brokers).

The “Average” column is the average Win Rate across the BO Brokers for each currency pair.  I shall use the Average Win Rate in reworking the past results and future results.

I don’t see there is much to be gained by relisting all the signals from last week and in any event you can find them at live-signals once they become post expiry.  The actual signals will not have changed it’s only the return that has changed and my plan is to give frequent commentary on how the signals are performing with a full list, trying to draw some conclusions, at the end of each week.  So here is the list of corrected returns from the days already reported on …

Date

+ or –

Cumm.

22/06/15

-1.27

-1.27

23/06/15

4.47

3.21

24/06/15

1.71

4.91

25/06/15

-1.52

3.39

26/06/15

-0.34

3.06

29/06/15

-2.63

0.43

30/06/15

-3.05

-2.63

So the service is doing 1.73 better than I had stated.  My apologies to all and in particular to JAS.

So now let’s move forward

Wednesday 01/07

There were 7 signals on Wednesday, only 1 was ‘overnight’ with the rest being in the early morning, one at 07:29 and 5 at 08:19.  The total return for the day for all signals was +1.69 bringing the running total loss to date down to -0.94.

Thursday 02/07

Only 4 signals today, 2 overnight and 2 in the evening.  They yielded a profitable day of 2.95 putting the running total in profit at +2.01

The previous blog on this service can be found here

 

 

Filed under Binaries & Options,Forex,General,Spread Betting by David Caple

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July 3, 2015

Patton Racing Profits

Day 88

One winner today

Day -.12 points  Cumulative  -9.24 points

 

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Dave Yeates

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July 3, 2015

Banker Bets

Day 45

Another couple of Wimbledon wins to take the winning run to 14.

Day +£41.02  Cumulative  -£26.44

(£1k starting bank, 10% stake compounded, average odds available)

Filed under Backing,Football,General by Dave Yeates

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July 3, 2015

The Zig Zag System

Remember, in blogging this that I can’t be too specific about the match selection procedures in case I give anything away, so apologies for vagueness.

You don’t need any special software to run this, it can all be done on Betfair, though if you do have software you can probably get your bets through more quickly, although that is no particular advantage.

Well, after 3 days of winners at Wimbledon I have been expecting losers – and they arrived today!

Now that I’m not looking at doubles today’s early round of matches had 10 potential qualifying games; 4 men’s and 6 women’s.

The likelihood with this system is after you have placed your bet they will go against you before (hopefully) coming back in your favour. In that way it’s sometimes difficult to bale out and, as I found today, sometimes the what you save on baling out is so small you may as well stay the course.

I actually traded SIX of those matches and came away with an overall loss of £21.92, which is not too bad at an initial stake of £20.

I actually had three losers and three winners but I left one that was going against me for too long. It works both ways of course, because others I traded where I should have got out went in my favour.

It brought me back down to earth anyway after 3 consecutive winning days and keeps my overall profit at £25.46.

There were certain games later on which, had traded, I would have made further losses.

My initial aim in blogging this Wimbledon fortnight was to cover TEN matches, and I have now more than achieved this. I will, though, be seeking further opportunities going forward.

 

Filed under Backing,Trading by Dave Yeates

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July 2, 2015

Handicap Trade Secrets

This is a backing service that targets decent priced horses to win and place on Betfair.

The idea is that the selections represent value as the market is generally unaware of the true chance of the horse winning and therefore prices are often larger than industry starting prices.

As we all know, so long as we are getting value bets, we will profit in the long term.

Tips are sent by e-mail late morning and the advice is to bet to level stakes with 30% going on the selection to win, and 70% on it to place. This provides a steady bank growth as many that do not win, do make the place.

We’ve made a little progress since my last update on this one but still nothing like the spectacular gains made in the second half of last year. It’s a slow burner this one so I’m going to run the test for a full twelve months to see if it replicates last years success.

The profit since Jan 1st is £705 including Betfair 5% commission charge using the recommended staking plan of 70% place and 30% win to a stake of £100.

But the profit since launch on May 1st 2014 is £26,020 which is impressive.

However, I’m sure many would be uncomfortable betting £100 stakes so only 7 points profit in the last six months isn’t up to much.

Let’s see how it does for the remainder of the year, but for now I’m going to put this in the Neutral category.Neutral

You can try Handicap Trade Secrets here:

http://www.cash-master.com/HandicapTradeSecrets.php

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Graham

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July 2, 2015

Stop At A Winner Bot

It’s six weeks into this trial so time for an update on this bot.

In case you don’t remember, this is a betting bot that you set to win a target profit and it uses recovery staking after a loss to recover lost stakes and attain the target profit. This can be a dangerous game so stop losses are used to limit the amount that can be lost in any one sequence.

The bot works completely automatically so once you set it running there is nothing further to so but leave it to bet. I’ve been running mine on my VPS so I literally do nothing at all as the server is on 24/7 and the bot automatically loads each days races in.

Now, I say there is nothing to do but I have noticed a glitch. I don’t check my VPS every day (or I didn’t) and I noticed a couple of occasions where the bot had frozen and stopped placing bets. So I had to re-start the bot. This has meant that I have missed at least two days, possibly three, of betting. I now check the VPS every morning just to be sure the bot is running properly.

This has also meant that the record of the bets that it keeps was lost. This isn’t a problem though as I have three Betfair accounts (from the days when you could have more then one!) and I’ve been using this bot solely on one account, so I have a record of all the bets in there.

So how has it been doing?

Well, I’ve had mine set to aim for just £1 profit and when it hits the profit it automatically starts again.

In six weeks it’s made a profit of £79 (after commission) which is really quite impressive.

I used a bank of £100 BUT looking through the results I can see that this isn’t enough as there was a draw down of £121 at one point, so I reckon a betting bank of £300 (or 300 points depending on what your target profit it) would be much safer.

Other than that, this does look to be a very effective tool for automated betting.

I’ll do more frequent updates in future. To be honest, this is so automatic that I forget I have it running sometimes!

Filed under Backing,Betting Bots,Horse Racing Systems by Graham

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July 1, 2015

Patton Racing Profits

Day 87

One placed horse today, and a couple of losers

Day -1.7 points  Cumulative -9.12 points

(Simon’s early prices +4.55 points;  SP -44.9 points)

 

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Dave Yeates

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