FINAL UPDATE & VERDICT
I have been recording results for this service since late September and it is now time to wrap the trial up.
Well, it’s certainly been a wild ride.
Selections arrive via email, although there is a members forum available where the bets are displayed and you can interact with the owner and other members. Bets are extremely easy to understand and I have found that the prices quoted are almost always understated, meaning you can find better via oddschecker. I have no doubts about the owner’s honesty and integrity regarding the running of the service and prices/wins claimed.
Bet types vary quite widely, taking in markets such as; Correct Score, First Goalscorer, Anytime Scorer, Scorecasts, HT-FT and many others. There have been very few straight win single bets. The eponymous “Accas” feature frequently and vary in size from doubles up to eightfolds.
When we started the trial the, membership price was £50 for the whole season. Within a few weeks of the start this price was temporarily lowered to £40 for the season. That offer has now been withdrawn and, as the season is half way through, a monthly subscription method has replaced it. The subs are now £20 (+vat) per month. I have been told that the Whole Season offer will be back in place for next season, based on performance this year that option looks good value for money.
I asked how big a starting bank was required. I was told that he doesn’t really advise members as to bank size but that 50 points should be fine. So I set my bank up accordingly to track performance at straight 1pt level staking and, as usual, have also kept records with the bank recalculated daily to 50 points.
For the majority of bets, a “Confidence Level” is supplied along with the details of what bet to place, so I decided I would keep a track of performance if you used this confidence level as a percentage of a point for staking.
We got off to a very bumpy start, with the bank heading south quite quickly. In fact we actually went into negative territory around six weeks into the trial, meaning the entire starting bank had been lost. It has always been my policy that if the bank is lost, the trial ends. No public bail-outs are forthcoming from the Cash-Master Government! I did allow this one to continue as the bank level had been a “should be ok” advice rather than an outright stipulation. The lowest point reached was five points below zero and, in an odd coincidence, the very next day we had out first good priced winner which returned a thirty point profit putting us back in a fighting position.
From this point on, things went much better. A week later we had winners at 15/1 and 20/1 returning the bank to it’s starting level by mid to late November.
Things got very exciting when we hit the monster night in early December and two bets in the same game in at prices of 280/1 and 22/1.
Since then we’ve pretty much bounced around the same level with the usual losing runs propped up by a further three double figure price wins.
The END OF TEST FIGURES:
AV ODDS TIPPED 45.35
AV ODDS OF WINS 15.28
PROFIT 272.95 points
Using the same results and recalculating your bank to 50 points daily would have given you an end of test profit of 111.77 points but the lowest point the bank sunk to was 15.27 points rather than the -5 points (so 55 point deficit) of the level staking bank. Adjusting your stake to match his “Confidence Rating” would have resulted in a profit of 81.33 points with the lowest being 16.25 points.
One stat really worth noting is that the “Accas” have been pretty disastrous and have cost the bank around fifty points. With regard to the confidence levels, the best were six, seven and eight. Level four had the big win but the best three actually return a profit from normal tipping rather than a one-off.
The overall profit if is VERY impressive but it must be noted that without that one enormous win, we’d actually still be in a position just below break even. It’s a fantastic achievement to tip a player that rarely scores to get the first goal coupled with his team going on to lose the game heavily. But it’s a fantastic achievement because it will happen so very, very rarely. Hence the huge price. Most Scorecast bets are going to be much lower than that and are still very hard to get right. So you simply cannot rely on getting one of those to keep your bank afloat. It must be viewed as a wonderful bonus.
The three month trial can be pretty much split into two periods. The first six weeks were very poor, the last six were very impressive.
During the early part of the trial, it was obvious that he was getting extremely frustrated by an unusually poor run of results by his own standards. There were lots of comments in the selection emails about longer term members knowing that the service was better than it was showing itself. This did appear to be true as I saw a member make a comment along similar lines in the forum.
The latter part of the trial (again, I’m ignoring the biggie) was very successful and has made a very decent comeback from the losing period. There have been losing runs but we’ve hit a good number of decent priced winners and the service has been really good.
It should also be pointed out that he’s has gone really close to landing very juicy priced bets on numerous occasions, meaning that there were very obvious opportunities to either “Cash Out” with bookies who offer that service or to place a Lay bet on Betfair to either cover you stake or secure at least a little profit if the main bet lost late on in the game. Even bets like Scorecasts, which most bookies will not let you Cash Out early on can be hedged against, if looking like going close to winning, on an exchange by laying the correct score to cover yourself. Sure, you are potentially giving back some of your profit but that will be easily offset by saving the losing stake money over a longer period.
The reason this Verdict Post is so long is that, for once, I can’t make up my mind which way to jump with this.
A Failed verdict is out of the question. The bottom line is extremely healthy, I’ve spoken at length about ignoring the biggie for decision purposes but it’s a fact that he did tip a hugely outlandish bet and did find the win. The second half of the trial has been brilliant and has recovered losses made during the poor start. I must admit that I like what I know of the owner and I’ve swapped a few chatty emails with him about the football. The forum could be quite fun too if a few more members would get involved.
Bearing in mind that, without that one big win, we’d be at a roughly break even level after three months, a verdict of Neutral is a viable option. I’m going to go with a cautious APPROVED. It is afterall massively in profit and the latter part of the trial has proved that he can pull off wins at decent prices on a reasonably regular basis. There are always going to be losing runs when targeting the more outlandish type of bet but it can’t be denied that having £1 on at a double or triple figure prices adds enjoyment to a game and, with the owner’s help, it can add to your pocket too. I appreciate that you can do that type of “fun bet” for yourself and save having to pay subs but the owner has proven that he can get a lot closer to big wins than your average fun bet punter could possibly achieve.
As always, I’m going to leave my final spreadsheet with every minute detail of the trial visible to anyone interested so you can see nothing is hidden and make your own decisions, we’re all adults with minds of our own. Those are the bets he tipped at prices I found for myself at Oddschecker. The performance can be enhanced by cashing out early or laying off your stake on close call. The only dilemma you really face is whether to subscribe now on a monthly basis or wait for the next full season offer. Either way, use a 100 point bank and keep stakes small. A strike rate of 13% is going to have long losing runs, potentially very long losing runs. If you can cope with that sign up. If that sort of figure worries you, don’t. All things considered, I do think it’s worth joining.
FULL DETAILED RESULTS FOR FOOTBALL ACCA TIPS
SIGN UP TO FOOTBALL ACCA TIPS HERE
As you may remember, I gave this a cautious approved rating last month.
I did warn about the losing runs but also praised it for finding a few juicy priced winners along the way that had given it a healthy bottom line for our test period.
Since the end of our test it has had a very torrid time and the owner has now introduced a change.
From now on, he is supplying tips with a couple that he has “Confidence” in and that you are instructed to back. There are then a couple that are headed as “Outsiders” and are deemed optional. You are advised to also back the “Accas” when they are supplied.
This does make quite a significant difference. Obviously, I have no way of telling which he would have deemed the main confidence bets, but one can assume that they would probably have been the shorter priced less exotic market based ones.
I’m not comfortable with just letting this sit on the Approved list without some form of scrutiny. I have kept up the records since the trial ended and I’m going to continue for another month to see how things go from now on. If it shows a profit by only backing the Confidence bets and the Accas, I’ll leave it on Approved. If not, I’ll reconsider the rating.