June 17, 2009

Smoke and Mirrors

Folks,

some bugs have been discovered, and I will need amend and retest the code and I will have to start the trial again.

I might have to bin scenarios 1, 2 and 3 too and just concentrate on scenario 4.

It will a couple of hours to patch the code, but then a few days to test it. Hopefully restart the test Monday.

Art

Filed under Backing,Each Way,Horse Racing Systems by Arthur

0 comments

June 17, 2009

Smarter Gambler

We had a game on Monday which was another winning bet. I’m quite liking this service so far. Nice and mellow, a few bets a week and it’s currently making money. Would probably be even nicer if I watched football:

USA v Italy

Back Italy at 1.70 Win £49.90

Total Profit: +£142.92

Filed under Football by Graham

0 comments

New Zealand vs Sri Lanka

Loss: £4.31

South Africa vs India

Loss: £8.16
Bank: £989.63
Loss to date: £10.37

Unfortunately the bank dips back into the red tonight.

With South Africa being restricted to a below par score, the entry point to the trade was available before the end of the South African innings. With India going very well, the odds had dropped sufficiently for the trade to be closed at a loss, with only six overs or so bowled. With South Africa then bringing on the spinners, the runs dried up, three wickets fell in four overs, and a winning trade could have been made.

What am I saying here? Sometimes jumping into a lock-in of losses that early in the second innings, does not necessarily allow the full picture to have appeared, but on the other hand, things could have continued to have gone the wrong way, and a greater loss made. As with all systems, some personal judgements are needed.

No games tomorrow, with the semi-finals on Thursday and Friday.

Filed under Cricket,Trading by David Aston

0 comments

Tuesday 16th June

Just the one winner on cable late this afternoon:

I had an e-mail from a reader, Matt, yesterday regarding where he sets the order to open. This is what he said:

“I enter trades 4 pips above for a buy and 2 pips below for a sell, I have only experienced 1 losing trade when the 20 pip was hit on tess, and retraced.

But what I do now is if it hit’s the 20 pip scalp on tess I adjust my stop to break even as 99% it goes on to get my 20 pips in the very rare case it does not it stops me out at break even.

If tess gets to 20 pips more often it retraces and goes on and hit the 30 pip stop so that is why I move stop to break even.

As you say there are advantages to 4/2 pips difference you miss out on the some losing trades where they only just qualify before retracing in the opposite direction so avoids a fair few losing trades, the disadvantage is the stop although you set it for 30 pips against tess it only equates to 26 pips but 99% of trades go to the 30 pips stop on tess after reaching my 30 pip stop.”

I tried this today and it did indeed stop me from being entered into a trade around 2.30 this afternoon on EURUSD. It would also tally with what a reader said yesterday about the 25 pip stop. I also like the safety factor of moving the stop manually to break even when the trade gets to 20 pips on TESS as at least then the worst case scenario is a break even trade.

Regarding my post yesterday about trading times, I’ve since had seven people so far volunteer to check back through the trades to find out the optimum trading times. Alan suggested this:

“Daily Mon – Fri : Add the hourly results ie. 0700-0800, 0800-0900 for each day etc – that way you can add the total results per day over a 12 month period. Eg. Mondays 0700-0800, 0800-0900; Tuesdays 0700-0800,etc

Friday afternoons: Add the hourly results from above (1300-1500) and check if it is worthwhile trading on Fri afternoons. If the result is neutral or losses or very small profits, then it may not be worth trading.

Friday Non-Farm afternoons (1300-1500): As above

If retraced from the 20+ or +21 pips scalp line (excluding spread charges), then maybe better to close at the Entry levels including or excluding the spread charges?

You can release the monthly chart results (12 months total for each hourly times for Mon, Tues, etc) and your comments and we can also make our own discretions.

The +18 to 25+ pips profits should be at our discretion.”

All good ideas although I’m not overly concerned about non-farm afternoons. If anyone can come up with a spreadsheet that we can input the data into easily I’ll make it available here for anyone wanting to help. Would be good to get another four or five volunteers then it won’t take much time at all. Those that have already volunteered, thanks very much. I’ll wait to see how many we get by the weekend then do a rota and hopefully we’ll have it done in a jiffy.

Filed under Forex,Spread Betting by Graham

0 comments

June 16, 2009

Robobets

Another losing day with no winners at all. The Betfair SP’s were quite a bit less than the average odds so I’m switching back to them. Starting to eat into the betting bank now which is a bit disappointing but still far to early to make any judgements on this yet. I’m aware that I need to make enough profit to cover next months subscription and leave a tidy sum for me to make this worthwhile.

Daily Profit: -£105
Total Profit: -£208.24

Filed under Backing,Betting Bots,Horse Racing Systems by Graham

0 comments

June 16, 2009

Smoke and Mirrors

Day 1 (15 June)

The bot collected data on 13 qualifying races but failed at 19:30.

As you will see from my latest blog, some bugs have been found in the code, and stability of the bot has become a major issue. So I have removed the results here as they are misleading.

Almost total bot rewrite so it will be some days before the trial is restarted.

Sorry folks.

Filed under Backing,Each Way,Horse Racing Systems by Arthur

0 comments

June 16, 2009

Smoke and Mirrors

As Graham has mentioned I have been asked to review the Smoke and Mirrors system.

The system is quite straight-forward, and has several rules around odds patterns in Sporting Life Live Show web page.

Here is problem number 1 from a review perspective: to use the system you need to be available to analyse the Live Show odds in the final few seconds before the off, and then be nimble enough to get a bet placed. I was not originally asked to review this system, Liam was. However, Liam spotted a “possible fly in the ointment”. Liam went on to say “The Sporting Life Live Show lags so badly that even with almost constant refreshing it is very hard to spot the selections”. Anthony, the system author, was asked to comment on this and his response is “It’s important to use the F5 refresh button in the final 30 seconds before the ACTUAL off”.

The original idea was to analyse the Sporting Life Live Show pages some time after the races had completed. However both Liam and Graham recognised that “that this would give an inaccurate assessment of the system. The system needs to be tested live to give it a proper review”.

So, I have been approached to write a bot to collect data to give the system a proper test. We are using a bot as reviewers will not be available to monitor live data for up to 9 hours per day. This I have done during my holiday to Spain! I am going to report on 4 scenarios:

1.    Using Live Show and Betfair data at scheduled off time; e.g. if the race is the 14:00 at Ascot, then data will be collected at 2 p.m.

2.    Using Live Show and Betfair data 30 seconds before the actual off. I will do this by collecting lots of data and spotting when the race goes “in running”, and then going back to the data set collected 30 seconds before this event. This simulates watching the ATR or RUK TV feeds and placing a bet as the last few horses are loaded in to the stalls (for flat races).

3.    Using Live Show and Betfair data as the race goes “in running” on Betfair. Simulates sitting at a computer and watching for Betfair “SUSPENDED” messages.

4.    Using Live Show and Betfair data once the Live Show page shows the race has started. Simulates pressing F5 as suggested by Anthony.

Scenario 4 most closely follows the system, but I want to assess what difference, if any, taking a different view of the prices makes to selections and overall profits. However, the official review will be based on the results of Scenario 4.

The bot is a “quick and dirty” and might have some stability issues. I do not regard this as an issue so long as we collect data on lots of races. Sure, we will miss some winners, but we will miss some loosers as well. The data should even out over the length of the trial.

Further, if racing gets out of sequence, e.g. the 14:00 is delayed 20 minutes so the 14:05 at another course goes off first, or if racing if abandoned at a particular course, the bot will probably fail, and there will wont data available for the part of that day.

I will ignore days where I fell that not enough data has been collected.

So, sorry if this is a tad complicated, but we are anxious to give this system a fair test.

I will attempt to blog each day during the trial.

Each of the scenarios listed above will be proofed using the authors suggested stake plan of 1% of bank. Each scenario is starting with a bank of £1000 (so the initial total stakes will be £10). Where each-way selections are identified this stake will be split 50/50. As the system uses Betfair, profits will be reduced by 5% to allow for Betfair commission.

Sorry folks, but as the bot uses Sporting Life copyrighted information it wont be possible to make the bot available to Cash-Masters members at the completion of the test.  Anyway, it wouldnt help as all it does is collect live data for analysis later, and does not throw up selections in real time.

Filed under Backing,Each Way,Horse Racing Systems by Arthur

0 comments

June 16, 2009

50% Favourites System

First time pick didn’t get a place :(

Sedgefield 3.30pm

Nile Moon 6th 

Opening balance £104.83

-£1.00

Closing balance £103.83       

Profit + £3.83

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Tony McCoy

0 comments

Pakistan vs Ireland

Match did not meet system criteria.

West Indies vs England

Profit: £6.31
Bank: £1002.10
Profit to date: £2.10

The trade tonight was opened and closed tonight within three overs, thanks to Chris Gayles dismissal, nudges the bank into credit for the first time.

Filed under Cricket,Trading by David Aston

0 comments

June 15, 2009

Robobets

No winners yesterday and at the end of racing there was an upgrade to the bot released that allows you to take Betfair SP if preferred. I’ve decided to try the BSP option to see how that fairs. It will mean bets are guaranteed to get matched and looking over the recent betting, many of the bets would have been at higher odds too.

Daily Profit: -£115
Total Profit: -£103.24

Filed under Backing,Betting Bots,Horse Racing Systems by Graham

0 comments