As Graham has mentioned I have been asked to review the Smoke and Mirrors system.
The system is quite straight-forward, and has several rules around odds patterns in Sporting Life Live Show web page.
Here is problem number 1 from a review perspective: to use the system you need to be available to analyse the Live Show odds in the final few seconds before the off, and then be nimble enough to get a bet placed. I was not originally asked to review this system, Liam was. However, Liam spotted a “possible fly in the ointment”. Liam went on to say “The Sporting Life Live Show lags so badly that even with almost constant refreshing it is very hard to spot the selections”. Anthony, the system author, was asked to comment on this and his response is “It’s important to use the F5 refresh button in the final 30 seconds before the ACTUAL off”.
The original idea was to analyse the Sporting Life Live Show pages some time after the races had completed. However both Liam and Graham recognised that “that this would give an inaccurate assessment of the system. The system needs to be tested live to give it a proper review”.
So, I have been approached to write a bot to collect data to give the system a proper test. We are using a bot as reviewers will not be available to monitor live data for up to 9 hours per day. This I have done during my holiday to Spain! I am going to report on 4 scenarios:
1. Using Live Show and Betfair data at scheduled off time; e.g. if the race is the 14:00 at Ascot, then data will be collected at 2 p.m.
2. Using Live Show and Betfair data 30 seconds before the actual off. I will do this by collecting lots of data and spotting when the race goes “in running”, and then going back to the data set collected 30 seconds before this event. This simulates watching the ATR or RUK TV feeds and placing a bet as the last few horses are loaded in to the stalls (for flat races).
3. Using Live Show and Betfair data as the race goes “in running” on Betfair. Simulates sitting at a computer and watching for Betfair “SUSPENDED” messages.
4. Using Live Show and Betfair data once the Live Show page shows the race has started. Simulates pressing F5 as suggested by Anthony.
Scenario 4 most closely follows the system, but I want to assess what difference, if any, taking a different view of the prices makes to selections and overall profits. However, the official review will be based on the results of Scenario 4.
The bot is a “quick and dirty” and might have some stability issues. I do not regard this as an issue so long as we collect data on lots of races. Sure, we will miss some winners, but we will miss some loosers as well. The data should even out over the length of the trial.
Further, if racing gets out of sequence, e.g. the 14:00 is delayed 20 minutes so the 14:05 at another course goes off first, or if racing if abandoned at a particular course, the bot will probably fail, and there will wont data available for the part of that day.
I will ignore days where I fell that not enough data has been collected.
So, sorry if this is a tad complicated, but we are anxious to give this system a fair test.
I will attempt to blog each day during the trial.
Each of the scenarios listed above will be proofed using the authors suggested stake plan of 1% of bank. Each scenario is starting with a bank of £1000 (so the initial total stakes will be £10). Where each-way selections are identified this stake will be split 50/50. As the system uses Betfair, profits will be reduced by 5% to allow for Betfair commission.
Sorry folks, but as the bot uses Sporting Life copyrighted information it wont be possible to make the bot available to Cash-Masters members at the completion of the test. Anyway, it wouldnt help as all it does is collect live data for analysis later, and does not throw up selections in real time.