March 24, 2009

Paul Fowlie On Course

Final review

The idea behind this backing service is that Paul will give advice on which horses to back at meetings he is attending. You log into a website and the days betting and staking advice is given in simple to follow race by race format. Paul will then send out text messages if anything comes up during the day.

We started following the results in early October and things did not go well for the first month with losses mounting up to well over £3000 in around 6 weeks. Paul requested that we stop the test as he was in a unprecedented bad run of form and restart after Christmas. We agreed to do this in the interest of trying to give the service the best chance to show it’s true value.

On restarting the test in January things seemed to improve at first and I was hoping that a serious dent could be made in the losses built up before the break. Unfortunately the profits stalled and the bank started falling back again. When I called a halt to the trial last week a profit of nearly £600 had been made since the turn of the year.
Paul claims to have made over £13000 for clients during last year and it does seem that results are reported accurately on the website but the big losses run up during our test period are worrying.

The large majority of bets are on the tissue favourite, second favourite or both and can be win, each-way or a combination of the two . Whilst it is true that a good number of favourites do win or get placed in their races it can get very expensive when a losing run comes along. There have been some longer priced highlights during the trial, but these have been too few and far between to make up the losses.

The figures I have given are all recorded at S.P. and represent the worst case scenario as better prices could have been obtained earlier or on Betfair.

Overall, I would stop short of fully recommending this service. I do not intend using it myself in future and if I had subscribed for the minimum period (3 months costs £149) I would not be renewing it. However, I do not feel it fair to totally dismiss it as a failure and so a rating of “Neutral” seems the best fit.

I do not think it is a rip-off and if you were to use your own judgement in tandem with Paul’s tips you would probably make some money. By judgement I mean adjusting the stakes and avoiding horses that have drifted badly in the betting etc. Just common sense basic betting coupled with Paul’s advice. But the test is all about how the service performs on it’s own and during our test period it has not been good as a stand alone product.

You can join Paul Fowlie’s On Course Service here:

http://www.cash-master.com/paulfowlieoncourse.php

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Liam

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Monday 23rd March

We start the week with a losing trade on EURGBP:

Then a winner on the same:

Then a winner on the EURUSD:

Filed under Forex,Spread Betting by Graham

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March 23, 2009

Nailed On System

System A:

Bookmaker SP: £ (Total to date: -£31.17)
Betfair SP: £ (Total to date: -£24.99)
Number of winners: 0 (Total to date: 5)
Number of selections: 0 (Total to date: 13)

System B:

Bookmaker SP: £22.50 (Total to date: £36.92)
Betfair SP: £24.39 (Total to date: £49.93)
Number of winners: 3 (Total to date: 29)
Number of selections: 4 (Total to date: 47)

Good day for the system again today, but again no selections for System A, overall now the system is now in profit by a nice amount. To repeat what I said in the Betting Vault Membership blog, there will be no posting for tomorrow or on Wednesday.

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by David Aston

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March 23, 2009

Betting Vault Membership

With staking plan

14:30 PLU
Yossi
Non-runner

15:05 PLU
Urban Warrior
PLACE BET
Stake: £24.29
Result: 2nd of 7
Profit: £3.00

16:25 KEM
Laustra Bad
PLACE BET
Stake: £3.76
Result: 4th of 7
Loss: £3.76

17:10 WOL
Duke Of Normandy
PLACE BET
Stake: £9.36
Result: 2nd of 7
Profit: £6.76

17:30 KEM
Nice One Eric
PLACE BET
Stake: £11.70
Result: 4th of 10
Loss: £11.70

17:50 PLU
Forest Rhythm
PLACE BET
Stake: £33.63
If this had lost, would break stop loss regulation, so take previous loss and restart.
Stake: £6.86
Result: 8th of 10
Loss: £6.86

Loss: £12.56
Loss to date: £4.00

To Level Stakes

14:30 PLU
Yossi
Non-runner

15:05 PLU
Urban Warrior
PLACE BET
Stake: £24.29
Result: 2nd of 7
Profit: £3.00

16:25 KEM
Laustra Bad
PLACE BET
Stake: £3.76
Result: 4th of 7
Loss: £3.76

17:10 WOL
Duke Of Normandy
PLACE BET
Stake: £4.16
Result: 2nd of 7
Profit: £3.00

17:30 KEM
Nice One Eric
PLACE BET
Stake: £11.70
Result: 4th of 10
Loss: £11.70

17:50 PLU
Forest Rhythm
PLACE BET
Stake: £6.86
Result: 8th of 10
Loss: £6.86

Loss: £16.32
Loss to date: £17.40

Yet another Monday with not good quality fayre on offer (apparently), and a reversal of fortunes on both sides. There will be no blog entries for tomorrow or Wednesday, as my wife is having an operation tomorrow, so I will not be around for live racing

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by David Aston

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It’s the end of 8 weeks of trialling the Lay and Win system.

Normally I would only trial a system for about 4 weeks, but the weather at the end of January/beginning of February was so poor that I thought it best to continue testing to allow the system to reveal it’s full potential.

The Lay and Win system comes as a neatly presented, 15 page PDF file.  It’s very easy to read and to follow. The instructions are clear and the examples given help clarify the individual rules. The system relies on access to the Racing Post web site, and it is good to see that the eBook uses the new Racing Post web site for it’s illustrations. Once logged in to the web site, you can determine your lay of the day within about 5 minutes; there is then a final odds check on Betfair before the lay can be placed.

Staking is suggested as a straight % of the bank, with a 5% stake recommended. The staking does not involve any ratcheting.

I have been in contact with the author of the system during the trial and can confirm that they respond to email queries quicky and effectively.

During the trial there were 20 selections; 19 of the horses lost (a winning bet), whilst one went on to win – a strike rate of 95%! A starting bank of £500 was doubled during the course of the trial, with an end bank of £1014.32 – a profit of £514.32.

Now, I don’t think that I have ever done a trial where I have doubled my money in 8 weeks, so you would expect me to give a big thumbs up to the system. However, I am a bit perplexed by the rules being used, as some of them do not seem logical and others seem to go against the grain of most other systems. This makes me wonder if we have just hit a very lucky streak and got some freak results.

I have checked my results against the official results on the web site – and they are very close (differences can be attributed to either the odds being out of range when I checked on Betfair, or in a small area of ambiguity where I continued to look for a selection if the first selection was out of odds range; whereas the official line from the author is that you should just treat this as a no bet day). This is good news as it suggests that finding a suitable selection is fairly consistent and thus lends some credibility to the past results that are posted on the site. These past results show good and bad streaks, but end up with a healthy profit posted at the end of each year.

So, on the basis that I made a good profit during the trial, and that the past results seem to be an indicator of some level of success, I am going to put aside my concerns over the rules and give the system a qualified thumbs up.

I’ll continue to monitor progress and update the blog periodically with my results.

Filed under Horse Racing Systems,Laying by Alistair Moffatt

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March 22, 2009

TAPS

Another set of tips provided by TAPS goes by the name of Warm Selections.

Warm Selections are given as either straight back to win, or as E/W bets.

For this particular trial, I have been using level stakes (starting at 1% of the bank), so with a £500 bank I’m operating with £5 stakes.

Here are the selections since the beginning of the trial:

Date Time Course Horse Stake Odds Result P/L
20/01/2009 13:30 Southwell Hamaasy 5.00 3.75 Lost -5.00
20/01/2009 14:00 Southwell Petroglyph 5.00 12.00 Lost -5.00
21/01/2009 14:00 Musselburgh Prince Of Slane 5.00 19.00 Lost -5.00
21/01/2009 15:50 Wolverhampton Bourse 5.00 7.00 Lost -5.00
21/01/2009 17:20 Wolverhampton Whitbarrow 5.00 11.00 Lost -5.00
22/01/2009 18:50 Kempton Incomparable 5.00 11.00 Placed 2.50
22/01/2009 19:20 Kempton Blacktoft 5.00 6.00 N/R 0.00
23/01/2009 13:20 Doncaster Spanish Cruise 5.00 26.00 Lost -5.00
23/01/2009 20:50 Wolverhampton Nabeeda 5.00 6.50 Lost -5.00
24/01/2009 13:50 Uttoxeter Heezagrey 5.00 3.50 Lost -5.00
24/01/2009 14:20 Uttoxeter Peut Etre Sivola 5.00 5.50 Lost -5.00
25/01/2009 14:05 Ayr Nine De Sivola 5.00 5.00 Lost -5.00
25/01/2009 15:25 Wolverhampton Takeover Bid 5.00 7.00 Lost -5.00
26/01/2009 13:55 Wolverhampton Fantasy Fighter 5.00 5.50 Lost -5.00
26/01/2009 15:15 Kempton Farmer’s Lad 5.00 6.00 Lost -5.00
27/01/2009 13:50 Folkestone A Bid Too Far 5.00 41.00 Lost -5.00
27/01/2009 14:00 Taunton Luxurix 5.00 3.25 Lost -5.00
27/01/2009 14:40 Southwell Grimes Faith 5.00 4.00 Lost -5.00
28/01/2009 15:15 Lingfield Red Wine 5.00 17.00 Lost -5.00
28/01/2009 19:20 Kempton Downhill Skier 5.00 6.50 Lost -5.00
29/01/2009 14:30 Towcester Ramvaswani 5.00 5.50 Lost -5.00
30/01/2009 15:20 Lingfield Spume 5.00 6.50 Lost -5.00
30/01/2009 16:30 Lingfield Deckchair 5.00 4.50 Lost -5.00
31/01/2009 14:50 Wetherby Sheriff Hutton 5.00 4.50 Lost -5.00
31/01/2009 15:10 Sandown Otto Des Pictons 5.00 9.00 Lost -5.00
01/02/2009 16:30 Musselburgh Pale Rider 5.00 11.00 Lost -5.00
02/02/2009 16:20 Wolverhampton Jane’s Payoff 5.00 34.00 N/R 0.00
02/02/2009 17:50 Wolverhampton Vanquisher 5.00 4.50 N/R 0.00
04/02/2009 15:05 Lingfield Kannon 5.00 9.50 Lost -5.00
05/02/2009 13:50 Taunton King Caine 5.00 3.25 Won 11.25
05/02/2009 16:00 Southwell Actuality 5.00 5.00 Lost -5.00
06/02/2009 20:50 Wolverhampton Jane’s Payoff 5.00 34.00 N/R 0.00
07/02/2009 12:40 Kempton Pearl 5.00 6.00 Lost -5.00
08/02/2009 16:10 Kempton Right Option 5.00 17.00 Won 48.00
08/02/2009 16:40 Kempton My Kaiser Chief 5.00 17.00 Lost -5.00
09/02/2009 14:10 Kempton Lady Bahia 5.00 12.00 Placed 3.00
09/02/2009 14:50 Wolverhampton Stonecrabstomorrow 5.00 4.00 Won 15.00
10/02/2009 16:10 Lingfield Agglestone Rock 5.00 11.00 Won 30.00
11/02/2009 14:05 Kempton Noah Jameel 5.00 17.00 Placed 7.50
11/02/2009 14:35 Kempton Motivated Choice 5.00 5.00 Lost -5.00
11/02/2009 14:40 Lingfield Highgate Cat 5.00 34.00 Lost -5.00
12/02/2009 15:55 Chepstow Notabotheronme 5.00 4.00 Lost -5.00
12/02/2009 16:05 Kempton They All Laughed 5.00 6.50 Lost -5.00
12/02/2009 17:00 Chepstow Peachey Moment 5.00 17.00 N/R 0.00
13/02/2009 14:25 Wolverhampton Tyrannosaurus Rex 5.00 5.00 Lost -5.00
13/02/2009 16:20 Sandown Dastardly Dick 5.00 15.00 Lost -5.00
14/02/2009 14:30 Kempton Prince Of Medina 5.00 4.50 Lost -5.00
14/02/2009 15:05 Lingfield Man Of Gwent 5.00 4.50 Lost -5.00
14/02/2009 17:10 Kempton Japura 5.00 8.00 Lost -5.00
15/02/2009 17:00 Southwell Very Well Red 5.00 11.00 Placed 2.50
16/02/2009 14:05 Market Rasen Government 5.00 21.00 Lost -5.00
17/02/2009 15:10 Wolverhampton Ravi River 5.00 4.00 Won 15.00
17/02/2009 15:50 Taunton Ski Sunday 5.00 3.20 Won 11.00
17/02/2009 17:10 Wolverhampton Forbidden 5.00 6.50 Lost -5.00
18/02/2009 13:00 Lingfield Rapid City 5.00 4.00 Lost -5.00
18/02/2009 17:10 Ludlow Subasta 5.00 19.00 Lost -5.00
18/02/2009 20:50 Kempton Common Diva 5.00 12.00 Lost -5.00
19/02/2009 15:00 Southwell Dreams Jewel 5.00 21.00 Lost -5.00
19/02/2009 17:20 Ayr Robbers Glen 5.00 4.00 Lost -5.00
19/02/2009 19:50 Kempton Halsion Challenge 5.00 3.50 Lost -5.00
20/02/2009 15:40 Southwell Key Decision 5.00 13.00 Won 36.00
20/02/2009 17:05 Sandown Miss Nightshade 5.00 17.00 Lost -5.00
21/02/2009 16:25 Chepstow Ross Leader 5.00 11.00 Placed 3.75
22/02/2009 14:10 Fontwell Richard’s Sundance 5.00 15.00 Placed 4.50
22/02/2009 15:10 Fontwell Oceanos Des Obeaux 5.00 3.50 Won 12.50
23/02/2009 15:20 Plumpton Caspar Of Tarsus 5.00 12.00 Lost -5.00
23/02/2009 16:00 Hereford Solent 5.00 29.00 Lost -5.00
23/02/2009 16:50 Plumpton Noun De La Thinte 5.00 11.00 Placed 2.50
24/02/2009 14:10 Catterick Silver Terra 5.00 26.00 Lost -5.00
25/02/2009 14:10 Folkestone The Old Pretender 5.00 2.63 Lost -5.00
25/02/2009 14:30 Wolverhampton Argentine 5.00 6.00 Lost -5.00
25/02/2009 15:20 Bangor Gold Reef 5.00 2.80 Lost -5.00
26/02/2009 15:20 Ludlow Karasakal 5.00 9.00 Lost -5.00
27/02/2009 18:50 Wolverhampton That’ll Do Nicely 5.00 15.00 Placed 4.50
27/02/2009 19:50 Wolverhampton Royal Amnesty 5.00 15.00 Lost -5.00
28/02/2009 13:50 Doncaster All Out For Seven 5.00 9.00 Lost -5.00
28/02/2009 14:20 Kempton Mister Pink 5.00 15.00 Lost -5.00
01/03/2009 16:00 Musselburgh Festival King 5.00 3.50 Lost -5.00
01/03/2009 16:40 Huntingdon Dunbrody Millar 5.00 15.00 Lost -5.00
02/03/2009 14:50 Wolverhampton Jalamid 5.00 26.00 Lost -5.00
02/03/2009 15:40 Lingfield Teasing 5.00 5.00 Lost -5.00
03/03/2009 15:20 Newcastle Fiftyfivedegrees 5.00 2.75 Won 8.75
04/03/2009 16:10 Lingfield Pedregal 5.00 11.00 Lost -5.00
05/03/2009 15:55 Lingfield Daryal 5.00 12.00 Lost -5.00
05/03/2009 16:50 Carlisle Thievery 5.00 6.50 Lost -5.00
06/03/2009 14:35 Wincanton Triggernometry 5.00 4.50 Lost -5.00
06/03/2009 17:30 Wincanton Mayor of Kilcock 5.00 17.00 Lost -5.00
07/03/2009 15:20 Ayr Young Albert 5.00 2.88 Lost -5.00
07/03/2009 17:05 Ayr Lucky Nellerie 5.00 3.50 Lost -5.00
08/03/2009 16:05 Warwick Don’t Be Bleu 5.00 15.00 Lost -5.00
09/03/2009 15:40 Stratford Red Scally 5.00 3.75 Lost -5.00
10/03/2009 14:05 Cheltenham Calgary Bay 5.00 8.00 Lost -5.00
10/03/2009 14:40 Cheltenham Wichita Lineman 5.00 7.50 Won 32.50
11/03/2009 15:35 Huntingdon Red Dynamite 5.00 21.00 Lost -5.00
11/03/2009 20:20 Kempton Robby Bobby 5.00 13.00 Lost -5.00
12/03/2009 14:40 Cheltenham Tidal Bay 5.00 8.00 Lost -5.00
12/03/2009 17:25 Hexham Rexmehead 5.00 7.50 Lost -5.00
12/03/2009 21:20 Kempton Maison D’Or 5.00 21.00 Lost -5.00
13/03/2009 15:05 Lingfield Best Bidder 5.00 11.00 Lost -5.00
13/03/2009 15:20 Cheltenham Denman 5.00 8.00 Lost -5.00
13/03/2009 18:50 Wolverhampton Valdemar 5.00 13.00 Lost -5.00
14/03/2009 14:20 Wetherby Aldiruos 5.00 10.00 Won 28.13
14/03/2009 17:15 Lingfield Super Frank 5.00 6.00 Won 25.00
15/03/2009 15:35 Carlisle Sabreflight 5.00 3.75 Won 13.75
16/03/2009 16:00 Kempton Art Man 5.00 5.00 Lost -5.00
17/03/2009 16:15 Kempton Huguenot 5.00 4.33 Lost -5.00
17/03/2009 16:40 Southwell Fesko 5.00 2.50 Lost -5.00
18/03/2009 16:45 Lingfield Roundthetwist 5.00 34.00 Lost -5.00
18/03/2009 17:50 Lingfield Suhayl Star 5.00 6.50 Lost -5.00
18/03/2009 21:20 Kempton Carlitos Spirit 5.00 15.00 Lost -5.00
19/03/2009 14:00 Ludlow Just Like That 5.00 4.50 Lost -5.00
20/03/2009 15:40 Lingfield Distinctly Game 5.00 6.50 Lost -5.00
20/03/2009 16:15 Lingfield Royal Amnesty 5.00 6.50 Won 27.50
20/03/2009 19:20 Wolverhampton Alfredtheordinary 5.00 6.50 Lost -5.00
21/03/2009 15:15 Haydock Saunders Road 5.00 5.00 Lost -5.00
21/03/2009 17:40 Bangor Honourable Arthur 5.00 4.00 Lost -5.00
22/03/2009 14:30 Southwell Decider 5.00 4.50 Lost -5.00
22/03/2009 16:30 Wincanton Liberty Ben 5.00 13.00 Lost -5.00

Starting Bank: £500.00
Profit/Loss: £-109.88
Current Bank: £390.13

ROI: – 18.6%

Unfortunately, these selections also appear to be having a bad time at present.

Filed under Backing,Each Way,Horse Racing Systems by Alistair Moffatt

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March 22, 2009

TAPS

Another week has flown by!

The week has not been a good week for the System Selection/Football Singles that I wrote about last week, with the profits made to date being wiped out in a series of poor results:

Date Time Course Selection Stake Odds Result P/L
17/03/2009 15:30 Southwell Elliwan 57.00 1.62 Lost -57.00
18/03/2009 14:40 Chepstow Mount Benger 57.00 1.53 Won 30.40
18/03/2009 17:10 Warwick No Supper 57.00 1.73 Lost -57.00
19/03/2009 15:55 Ayr Comhla Ri Coig 57.00 1.62 Lost -57.00
19/03/2009 16:10 Ludlow Fairyland 57.00 1.25 Won 14.25
20/03/2009 14:10 Newbury Michel Le Bon 57.00 1.44 Won 25.08
21/03/2009 Rangers 57.00 1.44 Lost -57.00
21/03/2009 16:05 Newbury Riverside Theatre 57.00 1.44 Won 25.08
21/03/2009 16:55 Haydock Firth Of Forth 57.00 2.88 Lost -57.00

Starting Bank: £500
Profit/Loss: £-5.07
Current Bank: £494.93

Strike Rate: 64%
ROI: 0%

So after 2 months, we are right back to square one.

Filed under Backing,Football,Horse Racing Systems by Alistair Moffatt

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March 22, 2009

Lay And Win

We reach the end of our trial, so here are the final selections.  I’ll post up my end of trial review later.

Date Time Course Horse Stake Odds Result P/L
20/03/2009 17:40 Kelso King Penda 46.22 6.60 Lost 43.91
22/03/2009 17:00 Wincanton Calaas 48.42 6.80 Lost 46.00

Starting Bank: £500.00
Profit/Loss: £514.32
Current Bank: £1014.32

Strike Rate: 95%
ROI: 71.7%

It’s not often you complete a trial period with the starting bank having been doubled!

Filed under Horse Racing Systems,Laying by Alistair Moffatt

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March 22, 2009

Nailed On System

System A:

Bookmaker SP: £ (Total to date: -£31.17)
Betfair SP: £ (Total to date: -£24.99)
Number of winners: 0 (Total to date: 5)
Number of selections: 0 (Total to date: 13)

System B:

Bookmaker SP: -£10.00 (Total to date: £14.42)
Betfair SP: -£10.00 (Total to date: £25.54)
Number of winners: 0 (Total to date: 26)
Number of selections: 1 (Total to date: 43)

Only one selection today in what looked like a day of racing lacking quality. A reversal of fortunes for System B, doing a little damage to the profits.

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by David Aston

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March 22, 2009

Betting Vault Membership

With staking plan

15:00 STH
Hysterical Lady
PLACE BET
Stake:  £4.64
Result:1st of 9
Profit: £3.00

15:30 STH
Lethal
PLACE BET
Stake: £3.43
Result: 1st of 11
Profit: £3.00

15:35 COR
Maca Rince
PLACE BET
Stake: £1.95
Result: 5th of 12
Loss: £1.95

15:55 STH
Smarty Socks
PLACE BET
Stake: £4.91
Result: 4th of 7
Loss: £4.91

16:30 WIN
Ice Bucket
PLACE BET
Stake: £21.63
Result: 2nd of 9
Profit: £9.86

17:10 HUN
Mayor Of Kilcock
PLACE BET
Stake: £7.89
Result: 2nd of 10
Profit: £3.00

Profit: £12.00
Profit to date: £8.56

To Level Stakes

15:00 STH
Hysterical Lady
PLACE BET
Stake:  £4.64
Result:1st of 9
Profit: £3.00

15:30 STH
Lethal
PLACE BET
Stake: £3.43
Result: 1st of 11
Profit: £3.00

15:35 COR
Maca Rince
PLACE BET
Stake: £1.95
Result: 5th of 12
Loss: £1.95

15:55 STH
Smarty Socks
PLACE BET
Stake: £2.98
Result: 4th of 7
Loss: £2.98

16:30 WIN
Ice Bucket
PLACE BET
Stake: £6.58
Result: 2nd of 9
Profit: £3.00

17:10 HUN
Mayor Of Kilcock
PLACE BET
Stake: £7.89
Result: 2nd of 10
Profit: £3.00

Profit: £7.07
Loss to date: £1.08

Another clear round for the staking plan. System A now nicely in credit, System B, subject to a winning day tomorrow will be.

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by David Aston

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