February 1, 2012

Profitable Lays Final Review

Profitable Lays is a system selling for £97 by Chris Adams. As the name suggests this is a horse racing laying system with three very simple rules. The system is very mechanical, and is fire-and-forget, so if you had access to a suitable bot, you could place the bets before work in the morning and relax for the rest of the day.

One caveat though; selections are made using the Racing Post. Because the RP Website can remove non-runners if declared early enough and adjust the forecast odds on the remaining horses, the racecard can differ between the online and printed versions. Selections are taken from the printed version (so you may need to purchase the RP), or just use Chris’ selections site. I suspect that, if you subscribe to RP online and you make your selections the night before you won’t have too many variations with the printed version.

After 51 days of trial the profit to £25 stakes is a mere £4.80. OK, I missed some days during December which would have added 17 points. However I don’t believe that this is a credible total for now 57 days of betting. Normally this would categorise this as a FAIL, but some further analysis makes different reading.

Firstly the result contain an apparently “freak” loss of 16.05 points in one result. I assume that a loss of this size had not been encountered before. Had this result not occurred the overall figures would look very much better. More on this later.

Secondly, look at the following table, which is profit/loss be course:

Course Points Total
Muss 8.81
Newc 6.53
Chelt 5.78
Donc 5.32
Font 5.01
Hunt 4.64
Tow 4.24
Ayr 3.00
Plump 3.00
Bang 2.70
Catt 2.34
Folk 2.07
Lud 1.86
Warw 1.50
Sedge 1.41
Taunt 1.20
Here 0.93
Utt 0.65
Plum 0.51
Kel 0.50
Winc 0.04
Ascot 0.01
Newb -0.21
Weth -0.28
Ex -0.85
Sand -1.53
Fak -1.63
Taun -1.90
Ling -2.53
MR -2.72
South -3.50
Wolv -4.88
Hay -5.25
Kemp -25.49

You will note that the four All-Weather courses occupy most of the worst courses. Even removing the “freak” result mentioned above will still put Kempton at the bottom. I won’t be recording results from now on, so won’t be continuing with this analysis, but this data suggests that AW should be avoided. An extra nearly 40 points on top of the 17 I missed makes this system look a great deal better.

Odds analysis is as follows:

Odds less than 6 659 bets 265 losers
Between 6 and 7 8 bets 1 loser
Between 7 and 8 3 bets 1 loser
Between 8 and 9 3 bets No losers
Between 9 and 10 2 bets No losers
Over 10 5 bets 1 loser

From this you can see that the “freak” loss is quite unusual, but an odds filter of, say not greater than 6, will remove some 13 winning bets but will pay dividends if those bets then lose. However, the freak loss is only slightly more than the number of winning bets you would not have made. Something to think about.

Now, before we get all exited, an extra 40 points at £25 per point IS NOT (40 * 25) £1000 because it’s not the net gain of 40 points that is subject to 5% commission, it’s the total winning bets that are subject to that. Therefore the profit total stated on the sales page is incorrect. It is difficult to calculate what the true figure should be though.

To conclude then, 11 points over 51 days is not a brilliant return. An extra 40 points was available by not betting AW. A sensible odds filter would have saved us from a big loss but also lost some winning bets which more or less balanced out. Add another 17 points for the 6 days I missed in December  and a points total of 67 points in 57 days does not look too bad. Therefore I cannot simply FAIL this but I cannot see this as a PASS either as the filters discussed above are not part of the system. NEUTRAL it is then.

You can get Profitable Lays here:


Filed under Horse Racing Systems,Laying by Arthur


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