October 12, 2016

SAW Deluxe

Last year I tested the Stop at a Winner Bot from the Steve Davidson stable. This was a completely automated bot that runs 24/7 either on your computer or on a VPS. After six months it had made £86 betting to £1 stakes so I awarded it a Neutral rating as it didn’t seem to make enough to be worthwhile, at least not with the settings I was using.

Well, this year they have upgraded the bot and released it as SAW Deluxe. The new bot uses a very clever technique called ‘Mexican Wave’ staking. Basically, rather than running progressive staking on a single run where stakes can increase quite dramatically causing the stop loss to be hit too often (the problem with the original SAW bot), this splits the staking over up to ten different tabs, and moves each bet over from one tab to the next so that, on an extended losing run, the stakes don’t increase very much at all. The only way for the stop loss to be hit would be if the losing bet happened on the same tab each time for enough bets, and the chances of that happening are far, far smaller than just using one sequence. The bot works out all the maths to enable this to happen, as well as identifying qualifying bets and placing them for you into the exchange.

So it’s a great little ‘set and forget’ bot that you can leave running indefinitely.

I started testing the bot on 5th September, using £1 stakes, betting in the Place market. I set it to back the first favourite if the odds are between 1.5 and 3.00, using 5 tabs on the Mexican Wave.

In four weeks, aiming to win just £1 per winning bet, the bot had made nearly £200 profit!

That’s very impressive indeed.

But then the following two weeks it lost all of that plus another £100.

Anyone that had started using the bot with these recommended settings two weeks ago would have lost 300 points in just two weeks and that is an unacceptable loss in that time frame.

I have no choice but to FAIL this one but with the caveat that just because I haven’t managed to find any profitable settings with this bot, it doesn’t mean there aren’t any. If you know of a consistently profitable setting for this bot then please let me know and I’ll try it again.

You can try SAW Deluxe here:Failed

http://www.cash-master.com/SAW-Deluxe.php

 

UPDATE MAy 2017

I was asked to do a re-trial of SAW Delux as during my initial trial I hit a losing run that had never happened before (always the way).

I initially decided on a three month re-trial but it ended up being four.

By the end of month one I had made 36 points profit. Month two increased that to 110 points and all was looking good.

Then month three happened and there were three days in particular that wiped out all the profit and took me well into the red by about 80 points. I decided to keep it going to see if it would recover.

Month four saw it recover the losses and get back into profit but then another bad day and I was about at break even. By the end of yesterday, which was exactly four months since beginning this re-trial, I was in profit by 2 points.

I took that as a good opportunity to throw in the towel. Again.

At least this time I didn’t lose anything but I didn’t make anything either over the four months.

So overall, over the seven months I’ve tested it, I’m still about £100 down and therefore this has to remain in the Failed category.

The bot works flawlessly, so if you manage to find a setting that is profitable then it would be good. But using the recommended settings I can’t recommend it.

Filed under Backing,Betting Bots,Horse Racing Systems by CashMaster

4 comments

{ 4 comments }

mark October 13, 2016 at 10:49 pm

unfortunately a consistently profitable long term setting will never be found.
Any type of loss recovery in any form of betting has never worked, and never
will. All goes well for a while until BOOM! As you have been in this game a while, im surpried you dont realise this.

CashMaster October 14, 2016 at 9:27 am

That’s not actually true. Loss recovery, if gentle and managed correctly, can produce long term profits so long as the selection method is sound, and preferably makes a level stakes profit too. The problem with SAW Delux is the selection criteria are too general.

mark October 14, 2016 at 8:43 pm

Its one of those discussions that could go on forever. Have a look at this
from someone who hasnt done too bad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nh0IngAgsoI

CashMaster October 15, 2016 at 12:21 pm

Yes, I’ve seen that before. He makes some very good points and and he’s right in that to make long term profits you need to have value bets and for the most part loss recovery systems don’t work because of the huge liabilities that build up. My point is that if managed ‘properly’ then they can work, and by managing properly I mean not allowing liabilities to build up and accepting a loss at a certain point… so that isn’t pure loss chasing as you are perfecty willing to take a loss, you are just determining when that will be instead of bet by bet. So if you have a selection method with a high strike rate and reasonable odds then a gentle increase in stakes (rather than 100% recovery) with a predetermined stop loss can in fact be more profitable than level staking over time, although I prefer level staking myself. With regards to SAW, betting on fav’s is simply not going to give a high enough strike rate at decent enough prices for their 100% loss recovery to work long term (or even for more than a few weeks!), even if it is spread out over ten cycles.

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