July 29, 2009

Smoke and Mirrors

Before we start with what is going to be quite a technical review, let me say that I am going to recommend that Graham places this system in “Approved” category. Doubling the bank in 30 days is not to be sniffed at!

What you get is a 45 page manual which explains the system and provides some examples. The system is backed up with videos produced by Anthony Greenaway, the systems author.

The manual describes how to find 5 signals in the live betting market. You have to be available to watch the markets leading up to the OFF, so this is not a system for the 9to5ers. However, if you can find a friendly coder, it is botable. I know because I have used a bot I developed to record the data. Sporting Lifes copyright policy will not allow for a commercially available bot, but you can use this data for “personal use”.

Using the manual I found it simple to identify the signals. As a Betfair person I like odds described as 2.12 or 1.40 and did, initially, find it difficult to know whether 11/8 is longer or shorter that 5/4.

Where the manual is truly awful is in describing how to apply these signals. I had major difficulties with this, and initially got this totally wrong much to Anthonys chagrin. There has been a lot of communication between Anthony, Graham and myself with respect to how to apply the signals, but Anthony always responded promptly to my emails. This misunderstanding resulted in a re-examination of all the data halfway through the test. Even then I didnt apply the signals correctly! So, to help you should you purchase this system (and you should!), let me describe how I, in the end, applied the signals.

I am going to be a tad cryptic here as the signal names are very descriptive, and, if I used them you may be able to work out how to arrive at these signals from the names alone. In order that they are described in the manual (so if you do buy the system you should be able to cross-reference with this review) you get an “EM” signal, an “IO”, “6O”, “6I” and a bonus signal I will refer to as “BO”.

Always take the first “EM” signal

Take the first “IO” signal (stop if we now have 2 selections)

Take the first “6O” signal (stop if we now have 2 selections)

Take the first “6I” signal (stop if we now have 2 selections)

Take the second “EM” signal (stop if we now have 2 selections)

Take the second “IO” signal (stop if we now have 2 selections)

Take the second “6O” signal (stop if we now have 2 selections)

Take the second “6I” signal (stop if we now have 2 selections)

Take the first “BO” signal (stop if we now have 2 selections)

Take the second “BO” signal

Note that sometimes you may only find 1 signal or no signals at all. Fine, just bet the signal you have. Sometimes you find multiple signals at the same price, in that case back all of them even if this means you are backing more than 2 selections (note Anthony suggests backing then “win only”).

I ran two scenarios: scenario 1 took the signals at advertised race time (at 4pm for a race advertised as York 16:00); scenario 2 took signals just before the OFF using TV (RUK and ATR) feeds to identify this.

Analysing the data, the “EM” signal returned the 27% of the profit for scenario 1 and 133% for scenario 2 (losses elsewhere dragging the total profit down). Anthony suggests that just using the “EM” signal would provide a good return and this evidence would support that.

“IO” generated 50% of the profits for scenario 1 and 435% of the profit for scenario 2. For both scenarios the best “IO” to use is when the signal can be identified using only 3 prices as this accounted for 35% and 300% respectively.

“6O” accounted for only 12% of the profit for scenario 1 and 86% of the profit for scenario 2.

“6I” did not work for either scenario during the trial accounting for -31% and -281% respectively.

“BO” worked well for scenario 1, accounting for 42% of the profits, and failed for scenario 2 with -272%.

From this analysis I would not use the “6I” signal just now, but I would paper trade it to determine whether it has just been unlucky through the trail period. Nor would I use “BO” if operating scenario 2, but would also keep a watch on this to see if it delivered profit in a longer term.

Scenario 1 returned a massive 116% (£1156 from a starting bank of £1000), and will defiantly be adding this to my portfolio of betting systems. This provides the basis for the “Approved” rating.

Scenario 2 only 8.5% and would have probably returned an “Approved” rating on the basis that ignoring “BO” and “6I” would have produced a healthy return.

Sorry for the cryptic nature of this analysis, but it should make sense if you buy the system.

This is not a system for people hung up on strike rates. You have to expect long runs of losses. However, S&M finds big priced winners often enough to justify the “Approved” rating, and ask yourself this, how else are you going to find winners at 16/1 or longer ? S&M did 19 times during the trail. There were also a fair few sob stories, with high prices just beaten by less than a length, and with a tad more luck…

Anyway, you will have gathered that I am quite a fan of this system, and I am happy to recommend it.

You can get Smoke & Mirrors here:

http://www.cash-master.com/smokeandmirrors.php

 

Filed under Backing,Each Way,Horse Racing Systems by Arthur

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