March 18, 2012

The Laying Game

The Laying Game – Final review

I have been looking at the Laying Game, a selection bot which sells for £39.99. This is simple enough, download and install the software, get a key (which lasts for 12 months). Press Scan, wait a minute and bet on the selections.

I used BSP for the odds and £10 stakes. I used the rule from the website and filter selections with odds above 10.

I only ran this trial for 37 days because I believe I have enough evidence to call this. In total we had  177 bets and of these 132 were winning bets where the horse lost. This generated a  profit of only £12.40.

The main issue is the strike rate of 74.58% when coupled with average odds of 4.83. To explain:

  • Out of 100 races, you will get 74.58 wining bets
  • At £10 per bet, this is £717 profit after deducting 5% commission
  • You will also get 25.42 losing bets
  • The odds for each losing bet are 4.83
  • So at £10 per you lose 25.42 * (4.83 – 1) * 10, which is £973

So, at these odds and with this strike rate, this has to lose long term.

However, before we consign this to the bin, let’s look to see if there are any days where betting is particularly poor.

Day Profit
Monday  £       16.20
Tuesday  £     122.50
Wednesday  £       50.90
Thursday -£       65.90
Friday  £       79.10
Saturday -£    171.50
Sunday -£       18.90
Grand Total  £       12.40

 

Fairly obvious that Saturdays have been poor. Two caveats: 1) this analysis is on 200 races and is a statistically (very) poor sample on which to base any conclusions, you’d need a year’s worth of data really; 2) this is for the final weeks of the jumps season, I don’t know, and nor will I be monitoring, whether this angle will continue through the flat season.

Removing Saturdays from the data the total profit becomes £284, however the strike rate remains at   76.81% and the average odds are 4.69, and this still is not a recipe for long-term success.

Odds Range Number of Bets Profit
< 2.0 13 -£         14.20
2 to 2.99 25  £         76.40
3 to 3.99 37 -£           3.20
4 to 4.99 30  £         60.60
5 to 5.99 28 -£      230.50
6 to 6.99 13  £         56.00
7 to 7.99 11 -£      113.20
8 to 8.99 10  £         95.00
9 to 9.99 9  £         85.50

 

So if we apply a maximum odds filter of 4.99 the total profit becomes £119, the strike rate 70.48% and the average odds are 3.29.

(70.48 * 10 * 0.95) less (29.52 * 10 * (3.29 – 1)) = -£6.44

So long-term this odds filter brings you to break even!

Removing Saturdays too the total profit becomes £220, the strike rate 74.12% and the average odds are 3.25. We finally get a profit figure of £121, so this will generate long-term success.

In conclusion then, the data collected suggests that this system cannot generate long-term success and therefore has to be categorised as FAILED. I have shown a possible route to long-term success, but this is based on only a few samples and contains little flat data; therefore this analysis cannot be applied to the data with any degree of confidence.

You can try The Laying Game here:

http://www.cash-master.com/TheLayingGame.php

Filed under Horse Racing Systems,Laying by Arthur

1 comment

{ 1 comment }

Ste clegg March 18, 2012 at 10:31 am

A good honest review, and unfortunatly i bought this software before reading
This review, but i quickly came to the same conclusions as Arthur.

Good job on this review and my email has gone to Steve
Davidson to ask for some sort of recompense.

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