January 4, 2009

The Sharp End – End of Trial Review

It’s the end of yet another trial – this time for a Backing system called The Sharp End.

The Sharp End is published by Sportsworld Publishing and comes as a 7 page eBook. The eBook contains absolutely no fluff (no introduction to betting exchanges, no definition of different fractional/decimal/American odds) with three pages dedicated to the “system” and one page to staking strategies.

The system itself is very simple to follow and takes very little time to analyse the various races. The system is designed to work on all types of racing (jumps, flat and all weather). The eBook suggests the use of The Racing Post newspaper, but the vast majority of the information required is available on the Racing Post website. The one area that is missing is to check the selection is not quoted as “Lay for a place” in the Trading Post part of the paper, but I suspect that this makes little difference to the results, as I did not find one selection quoted in the paper at all.

The strike rate is expected to be around 80% – the highest I have yet come across so far for a backing system – although during the trial period, it did run at less than this. According to the website, the strike rate is officially running at about 75% at the moment.

Staking is covered on a single page and is suggested at 10% of the bank!  If you are intending to use this system, I would suggest you start off smaller until you build up confidence, then increase stakes as appropriate.

Early prices are suggested as a way to boost profits, as the selection often come down in price closer to the race.

I ran the trial from mid November through to mid December 2008. During that time there were only 8 bets, of which 5 returned winners (a strike rate of 62.5%). Average odds for the bets were 1.82 – with odds being taken at SP.

Using a starting bank of £500, and staking 10% of the bank on each bet, the trial ended with a profit of £58.79 (a ROI of 13%).

If a ratchet was applied to the staking plan, i.e. stakes were maintained at the current level on a loss, then the profit would have been boosted to £77.06, a ROI of 17%.

Since the trial completed there have been four additional selections (three losers and one winner). This would have an adverse affect on the results of the trial, pitching us into a loss position with an ROI of -13%.

Overall, this is a simple to use system that shows some promise. The strike rate needs to be very high to ensure a profit at the odds expected, and I suspect that a one month trial is not sufficiently long to make a proper judgement.

As such, The Sharp End receives a neutral rating and a marker to re-run the trial at a future date, and over a longer period.

You can get The Sharp End here:

http://www.cash-master.com/thesharpend.php

 

Filed under Backing,Horse Racing Systems by Alistair Moffatt

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