May 13, 2015

Value Football Betting

You may have noticed that we have had this service on the “Current System Tests” for a long time and that I haven’t written an update for a couple of weeks.

In hindsight, I wish I’d reviewed this on a “One-Off” basis, as it is a fantastic resource. The reason it’s taken so long is that I decided to blog test it but only by using the bets supplied by email. They had been working very well before I began the test and I thought it’d be the best way to show what it could do. Typically, the supplied bets’ performance dipped for the first time.

Now if this was a tipster only type affair, then I would accept that it wasn’t working out and would come to a verdict reflecting the performance. But, of course, this is far far more than a tipster service and the supplied bets were only really intended to get you started.

The main purpose of Value Football Bets is to help you find your own selections based on a vast database of statistics and available to back/lay on Betfair at a price out of sync with the statistical likelihood of winning.

There are 3 main sections in the Members Area for you to use for your own research:

1) VALUE BETS.

This section goes through all the day’s games and shows the perceived value for pretty much every market available. You can see if the price available on Betfair is significantly higher or lower than the price calculated by VFB using all the stats available from the team’s performances. There are four different pages to explore based on which type of bet you are looking for; First Half Markets (team to be winning/losing at halftime) Second Half Markets (later game progression), Full Match–Match Odds (outright win/lose markets) and finally Full Match–Goal Markets (btts, o/u 2.5 3.5 etc)

2) VFB DATABASE.

An invaluable resource that seems to get fewer mentions among members, but that I find probably my favourite part. As with Value Bets, the pages are sub-divided into the four bets types based on what period of the game you want to look at. What happens is that each league table covered is split into 3 ranking sections. The top teams in each league are ranked as A, the middle third are B and the stragglers are denoted as C. You are then able to select the league and team you are interested in and with one simple click can see exactly how they’re performed against teams from the other categories. The stats cover all bet types and go back (up to) 10 seasons, depending on how long the selected team have been in the same league.

3) DAILY BEST BETS.

This is the section that gets most attention from members and is probably the most straight forward to use. I did post some videos showing Steve making his selections live, if you missed them or want a reminder click here

These are games from the Value Bets section that have been filtered and determined to warrant closer scrutiny. It is from these that Kevin picked the selections he emailed to members. I have been using these since I decided to make my own selections rather than follow the emails. I started on 28th March and, up to last Sunday, I had made a profit of just over 22 points. I found I was having problems with the First Half markets and was regularly losing on them during April, so cut right down on them and concentrated on Match Odds and Goal Market areas. My performance picked up considerably.

You can see my progress here. I didn’t originally intend publishing this as they are purely my work and all members will have taken differing views. Another thing to bear in mind is that the prices I have recorded these at are ones that reflect what the profit would have been. As I was using a mix of bookies, Betfair and varying whether I took a pre-game price or left a bet go in-play to get matched by clicking “Keep”, it seemed the best way of getting a true as possible figure without the worry of trying to remember what needed commission deducting etc.

The last aspect of Value Football Bets to consider is the current £30K Challenge. Kevin is attempting to turn a £1000 bank into £30,000 in 3 years. He started in April and initially made some progress, before sliding back to break even by the end of the month. At the start of May, he decided to ramp up stakes to full 1 point (£10) bets rather than the fractions he had started with. They are currently  7.3 points up on the official figures, although anyone following will be slightly different depending on the price they got. You are advised which games are potential selections in the daily email and told whether to use the Chatroom or Twitter to watch out for in-play instructions.

Value Football Bets is a fantastic service that is well worth the £37 a month subscription. I really would urge you to at least try it for a month to see it in action. You make your own selections, but there’s so much help and advice available that it really is a service for bettors of every level. Just watch the videos I mentioned and you’ll see how user friendly it really is. This is most certainly APPROVEDApproved2

JOIN VFB HERE

Filed under Football by Liam

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