No, not a cricket tipster service, this is a horseracing tipster service looking for higher odds runners (hence ‘outside’) to belie their odds, and is another service from the excellent Betting Gods stable. There are short odds selections too, where Darren feels that, even at the price, there’s value in the bet.
I’ll be monitoring this service for the three month period beginning July 1st. With average odds of 10.5 thus far, you can expect long losing runs and losing months too. However, for those punters with patience, the service has averaged 20 points profit per month since proofing began last December. Outlay per bet varies from 1-3 points.
Tips from Darren are sent Monday to Sunday between 8.00am and 9.00am, plus 6.00pm and 7.00pm. Darren recommends a 150pts starting bank to keep your money protected. He has grown this by 95.81%! Darren sends around 80 bets per month via email, the mobile app and through the members’ area.
Better than average profit for July, with a profit of 39.48 points. This was in spite of a 20 bet losing run at the end of the month. That represents an ROI of 16%, not too shabby. The results do rely on taking early odds and bookies’ extra places, but I have also calculated the BSP results which are a very interesting +27.41 points. The place profits aren’t as good as the bookies but some of the higher odds wins can do better than the bookies.
Another profitable month for July, with a profit of 13.24 points to one point level stakes. This is below the monthly average but a decent profit to £10 stakes after subscription costs. Strike rate was 64% of 222 bets, so average winning odds quite a bit lower than June, with an ROI of 5.9%. Longest losing run was 8, and longest winning run was also 8.
I am grateful to Cash Master subscriber Gerry, who does use Betfair for these bets, and made the following observation:
If you wait say half hour before the game starts and check on Betfair, often things change. Sometimes the over points drop with the same odds, which of course is in your favour. It gives you an idea of how the game might go. Betfair are obviously getting updated info on the teams. I think Betfair have the most efficient odds compared to bookies. I know for a fact a lot of bookies wait till they see what Betfair odds are.
If the goalposts are moved prematch, maybe there are some trading angles to exploit?
Like me, you probably roll your eyes when a service hits a big winner and decides that is a good time to put out a marketing push, based on that winner. But of course, you should never sign up to anything based on a winner, or a recent winning period. When I see a service showing a 40% ROI in the last two months, I want to know what the ROI is over a year, rather than the cherry-picked terms from the service provider.
Having said that, I make no apologies for posting this result from yesterday’s 3.55 at Pontefract. Inform Racing is all about speed ratings; after all, it’s the fastest horse on the day which wins the race. Obviously you can’t take speed alone as the measure, there are many other variables such as weight, course, jockey, going, etc etc. But I use Inform’s class pars as my first port of call. Notice in the above example, the class pars for this race are 76 and 85. So that’s 76 as the average par necessary to win a race of this type, class and age group. That doesn’t mean that any runner which has achieved that par will win the race, it just shows that it has achieved that par previously for the type/class/age group of a race. Equally, any runner which has failed to achieve that par previously can of course improve, and win the race (though I wouldn’t personally back anything which hasn’t made the class par). The 85 is the highest rating achieved for that class.
So, spotting Monsaraz in that race yesterday, I could see there was a hotpot odds-on favourite, and the market was giving Monsaraz no chance. I do take notice of the market, it’s a huge factor in the probability of how the race is likely to pan out. However, the class pars were enough to tell me that it was a race I shouldn’t be investing in, as they were so at odds with the market. But at a big price, I will always chuck in a minimum bet of £2, so I backed Monsaraz at BSP for £2 and also £2 on the extra place (4TBP). And I actually forgot about it, and it was only when I could see my Betfair balance had been bolstered that I checked back to see Monsaraz had won at a BSP of 60, and I had won £115.64 after tax for my £2 stake, plus £8.43 place for the same stake. Checking back to the race, the horse won easily by nearly 2 lengths. The second horse, Hammy End, had also achieved the average class par, and the hot favourite, Pleasure Garden, at 1.75 BSP only made third place. At 77, it had the same highest class par as Hammy End.
Now, I’m definitely not suggesting this particular method is a surefire way to make profits. But it’s one of the many great aspects of Inform Racing which can be used to build your own picture of how a race might unfold. It also has a system builder, so that you can interrogate past results in any angle of your choosing, and create profitable back and lay systems. When you have found a system you think might be a goer, you save it as a file, and by using the declarations builder, you can see the qualifiers of your system for today’s races in seconds. Inform Racing don’t rest on their laurels, the site is in constant development, and the latest facility is the Betting Tissue Tool which allows you to price up a race depending on those aspects of previous form which you want to emphasise. There is also a blog by the owner on the site, as well as a lively Twitter account https://twitter.com/InformRacing
For the price of a pint of beer a week, I wouldn’t be without it. You can sign up to Inform Racing here.
Basketball Geek is run by the Betting Gods stable, and of all the betting agencies this is one I’m most comfortable with because of the excellent way it is run, efficiently and transparently.
That, of course, doesn’t always mean that the services within the stable would be recommended on Cash Master, they also need to be consistently profitable.
Basketball Geek has been producing tips to Betting Gods since November 2019, and has averaged a profit of 24 points per month since then. I will be following the service for three months, beginning in June, to see if he can maintain that success.
The tips are sent through early morning UK for games played around the world. It must be noted that several of the bookies quoted prices are unavailable if you live in the UK, and no doubt in some other countries as well. A lot of them are the newer internet-based bookies who only accept deposits from some of the e-money transfer companies like Neteller and Skrill, and punters using these services would have to factor in the additional costs involved. Also, virtually none of the bets are available at the required prices on the exchanges. However, Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral are oft cited bookies for the required prices.
So, June. Pretty much kept up with the monthly average, with a profit of 22.49 points. All but one bet was a 1 point level stakes bet (the exception was 2 points, and this won). Strike rate was 49% of 159 bets, with an ROI of 14.14%. Longest losing run was 8, and longest winning run was 10. So far, so good.
I published this blog post shortly before racing was suspended due to the virus. Now we’re back in business, and it’s worth another look. Inform Racing has continued to add features and can help find systems without relying on tipsters, which is a great advantage.
Graham first reviewed The Staking Machine back in August 2010, with updates in 2012 and 2013. I’ve always been aware of exotic and fancy staking systems, but my logic has always warned me that the risk starts to become much more significant, and I’ve always thought, if you have a system which works, start with a bank and base your stakes on a simple percentage of the bank and grow it exponentially.
Having been granted access to the great speed related ratings site, Inform Racing, I have worked out a system which has thrown up a better than 50% win results, but where the profits are very small after a year, mostly due to skinny prices. This gave me the idea about how I could improve the returns with different staking, and there is only one piece of software I’ve come across which can do this efficiently and simply, which is The Staking Machine. This was actually a eureka moment for me, because the system shows you at a glance how well your results could have performed using the various different staking systems. It also shows you whether your system would have been bankrupted, depending on the bank, and it also gives you the opportunity to change staking systems so that, for example, you start with a bigger bank (some systems would bankrupt you with a 100 point bank but would be very profitable with a 200 point bank).
So anyway, back to my short favourites system from Inform. Level staking I was making 60 points profit over a year. OK, a profit’s a profit, but 1 point a week isn’t exciting me with the system. But it’s safe, so I guess if you’re betting at £100 a point, it’s worth having. But I’m not betting with big stakes, so looking for a system with a higher points return. Of the 26 staking systems, nine of them were making me bankrupt. The Bookies Bank version 2 was my best profit system, making 736 points, but bankrupted a 200 point bank. But I found a system which made me 253 points on a 100 point bank (Parlay), and so I am testing this with my Inform results on a very small bank of £100.
There’s more, though. I tested the same results on lay systems, and it would have been possible to make a profit with exactly the same selections but laying them. I think this tells me more than anything how essential staking is. Undoubtably the most professional punters maximise their returns with professional staking.
The great thing about Inform System building is that you can export results right out of the software as TSM (The Staking Machine) files, and I absolutely accord both of these services my highest recommendation, for those who want to go it alone rather than follow a tipster. And if YOU stumble across a great system from Inform which works with TSM, you potentially have a service yourself which you can sell to those who do prefer just to use a profitable tipster (and there’s nothing wrong with that!). And if it’s great, at Cash Master we’re here to get you up and running. Here’s one for starters: try looking for lay systems with low odds, and throw in a few variables like handicap/non handicap, class and ability. It’s fun and can throw up some real surprises, and we have time to dedicate to this while we’re waiting for the return of racing at (hopefully) the end of April.