This review was planned to start in Cheltenham week and last for three months. But then came the disease to change those, and also my pub, plans! Which was frustrating, because this comes from the Bet Hub stable, a team which is very familiar to me and which I know is reliable and transparent. This particular tipster has shown incredible results during the proofing period and since launch in December has delivered an implausible but true profit of +398 points.
I’m sure most readers will have their sceptical hats on now, thinking it must all be huge staking, or that the given odds must be impossible to track down. And there were some early questions about this which I had, and which I am happy have since been resolved, such as the naming of bookies where prices were given, extra places, etc. But since I have been following this tipster, the max stake has been 4 points, and that only once, it’s usually around 2 points; and there are some accas.
For me, I like to see if a tipster is profitable on Betfair because, like many of you, I can’t get money on at the bookies. So I always record Betfair results where possible, though there are instances, such as accas, which I can’t use Betfair for but I record the prices as if I could have.
So, since March 10th, I have recorded a profit of 70 points to quoted early prices, 60 points to BSP – 5% commission, and 55 points to ISP. 55 points profit during lockdown is very good indeed, and he has been profitable in his occasional bets from USA, Down Under, and even a greyhound race!
But the results are clearly affected by the absence of British horse racing, and so we are going to extend the review period until the end of August. You can find the results on the website, but I have a very good feeling about this one, and I would strongly encourage those who haven’t to get on the free 14 day trial before all the slots go.
Graham first reviewed The Staking Machine back in August 2010, with updates in 2012 and 2013. I’ve always been aware of exotic and fancy staking systems, but my logic has always warned me that the risk starts to become much more significant, and I’ve always thought, if you have a system which works, start with a bank and base your stakes on a simple percentage of the bank and grow it exponentially.
Having been granted access to the great speed related ratings site, Inform Racing, I have worked out a system which has thrown up a better than 50% win results, but where the profits are very small after a year, mostly due to skinny prices. This gave me the idea about how I could improve the returns with different staking, and there is only one piece of software I’ve come across which can do this efficiently and simply, which is The Staking Machine. This was actually a eureka moment for me, because the system shows you at a glance how well your results could have performed using the various different staking systems. It also shows you whether your system would have been bankrupted, depending on the bank, and it also gives you the opportunity to change staking systems so that, for example, you start with a bigger bank (some systems would bankrupt you with a 100 point bank but would be very profitable with a 200 point bank).
So anyway, back to my short favourites system from Inform. Level staking I was making 60 points profit over a year. OK, a profit’s a profit, but 1 point a week isn’t exciting me with the system. But it’s safe, so I guess if you’re betting at £100 a point, it’s worth having. But I’m not betting with big stakes, so looking for a system with a higher points return. Of the 26 staking systems, nine of them were making me bankrupt. The Bookies Bank version 2 was my best profit system, making 736 points, but bankrupted a 200 point bank. But I found a system which made me 253 points on a 100 point bank (Parlay), and so I am testing this with my Inform results on a very small bank of £100.
There’s more, though. I tested the same results on lay systems, and it would have been possible to make a profit with exactly the same selections but laying them. I think this tells me more than anything how essential staking is. Undoubtably the most professional punters maximise their returns with professional staking.
The great thing about Inform System building is that you can export results right out of the software as TSM (The Staking Machine) files, and I absolutely accord both of these services my highest recommendation, for those who want to go it alone rather than follow a tipster. And if YOU stumble across a great system from Inform which works with TSM, you potentially have a service yourself which you can sell to those who do prefer just to use a profitable tipster (and there’s nothing wrong with that!). And if it’s great, at Cash Master we’re here to get you up and running. Here’s one for starters: try looking for lay systems with low odds, and throw in a few variables like handicap/non handicap, class and ability. It’s fun and can throw up some real surprises, and we have time to dedicate to this while we’re waiting for the return of racing at (hopefully) the end of April.
I first reviewed this service on New Year’s Day last year with a glowing recommendation. As I stated then, Ryan, who is the man at the helm, is constantly looking for ways to improve the experience for punters and this entails exploring new angles, increasing profitability on existing methods, and simplification for the end user. There was a lot going on when I got involved with this, and it was hard to keep up sometimes. Ryan appears to have boundless energy and enthusiasm, and I did feel that sometimes the daily explanations of what he was doing weren’t always necessary and that he would be better off devoting that time to perfecting his tweaks on method. I said in the review that Ryan really cares about his client experience and it is refreshing in what is largely a tawdry industry to see him acknowledge the responsibility he has to his paying clients.
In the year since the review, the service has been through many challenges, and overall profitability has not lived up to expectations. The main reason for this is that Ryan wanted to move everything over to automation, meaning that all punters could get bets on (as long as they have access to Betfair) regardless of where they were and when they had access to the internet. Music to my ears. I know there are some of you who like trawling through pages and pages of stats. But I’m happiest to let the experts do their thing and automate the bets on my behalf. So Ryan’s first venture into this realm was a downloadable local bot for horse race in-play trading. This created a large number of unforeseen problems, with the bot requiring constant tweaks and Ryan’s help desk mounting. It became clear that all user experiences were different, and that he had to find a way to standardise the betting so that all users had roughly the same experience. The answer was cloud betting. Cue Nigel Dove, the doyen of bet bots.
Anyway, long story short, as Ryan was using Focus Ratings as his database, Keith Eckstein who runs Focus also got involved. There were still many hurdles to jump. For example, how would a cloud bot which delivers all subscribers’ bets at the same time, affect the Betfair markets? And in the case of dutching, it wasn’t working, and so back to the drawing board. The answer was laying the horses which weren’t to be dutched. And then Keith dropped out due to conflicting agendas, and Ryan had now settled on his vision. However, results were still not coming through as predicted. As they were new, the selections were necessarily based on back fitting. However, since then they now have three months live testing under their belts. In Ryan’s words, “we now have two very robust fully automated services running with Cloud Bet Bot, and on the 22nd March will begin adding trading content to run using Hedger Pro. That will be the top and tail of what Exponential Bet now offers its members, and it couldn’t be clearer. All the confusing content has been stripped away, and we now just provide these options.”
As a punter, you might reasonably ask why you have been a guinea pig during this transition, and I would have some sympathy with that point of view. The truth is, when you have hundreds of members whose bets you are placing every day, you’ll only ever really know whether or not it works by live testing. I don’t think Ryan would have run it if he hadn’t believed it would hit his targets. Hopefully those who stuck with it will be rewarded. Things have certainly shown steady increases in the banks of both systems since the live testing tweaks have been in place. Time will tell, of course, but as the bets are based on sound, proven ratings, I am happy enough to stick with my original recommendation for the service. And I’m looking forward to the launch of trading content for Hedger Pro later this month.
This is a straightforward horse racing service from the BetHub stable. Bets are sent early by email, often the previous day. I have been trialing this since early August, so four months, during which we have had 150 bets. You can see from the graph that it took a few weeks to take off, but was never much in arrears. As it made a profit to quoted prices and also to Betfair SP, it will be of interest to all our subscribers.
Here are the stats
Strike rate: 26%
Outlay per selection: 1-3 points
ROI quoted prices BOG: 20%
ROI Betfair SP: 12%
Profit Aug-Dec quoted prices BOG: 54 points
Profit Aug-Dec Betfair SP: 31 points
So whether you bet with the bookie or on Betfair, this has made a decent profit after subs, and I am happy to recommend the service.
When I started this trial back in August, I have to admit to knowing very little about dog racing. If I’m honest, I still don’t know much, but what I do know is that this guy knows his greyhounds. Indeed, he owns and races them, and what I found over the past few months is that the bookmakers tend to rely somewhat on his knowledge, and adjust their prices accordingly.
There are many races every day which are priced by the bookies with over-rounds to make their pockets very full, everything happens very quickly and races are almost over before they’ve started.
There’s no liquidity at all in the early Betfair markets, and just a frantic few minutes of trading before the hare is running.
Greyhound Maestro concentrates on the principal meetings, being Hove, Central Park, Crayford, Romford, Perry Barr, Monmore and a few others.
As you can see from the graph, the service is profitable and consistent, as long as you are able to get on at the early quoted prices. With results like these, I can certainly recommend the service, being nearly 60 points up in four months, with no long downswing.
However, this comes with a warning, that the prices which are quoted in the morning invariably disappear quite quickly and always end up shorter at SP. This is a clear indication that Greyhound Maestro consistently finds value bets, but it can be frustrating following him if you can’t get the odds.
As he says:
“it’s getting much harder to eke out any value with early prices, with the bookmakers cutting odds after one or two bets and their restrictions on how much you can actually have on! Also I know that my bets are used by the bookmakers as a guide and to cut the odds. Basically I’m doing the card for them. I’m seriously thinking about my future tipping & betting, maybe abandon my early price bets and either wait until 10 minutes before the off to bet & post my selection/s or just play at the best odds available on Betfair.”
So, watch this space. If he does find a way, he’s the man to have on your side.
Quoted price results are:
Strike rate 32%
Profit 56 points on 180 bets
I’m very happy to approve this service from a tipster who is clearly an expert in his field. BUT this comes with the significant caution that getting on at the early quoted prices is essential to the profitability.