It’s been a torrid few weeks for this service and the Index itself.
The introduction of Sale Offers didn’t go smoothly and things have been a little haywire ever since. The crash I covered in the last write up hasn’t picked up any further.
We were advised to have a bit of a clear out this week, with players we have been struggling to move on sold via the Sell Now button, which will almost certainly guarantee a loss on that particular trade.
We also adjusted our holdings in several other players, both upward and downward, and then we bought a raft of small stakes in new players to try and grab those in-play dividends.
Going by what the service are saying, we are waiting for Football Index to refine the Offers process, add in market depth columns (like the ones you see on a Betfair market) and for trader confidence to return.
As things stand, I’m fairly sure this downturn in fortunes is due to problems with Football Index mishandling the change to Bid/Offer, rather than this service going off the rails. But the bottom line is that the bottom line isn’t looking to good at the moment.
I’m glad I kept this going rather than calling a halt at our usual cutoff. I’m going to carry on a while longer before giving my final verdict.
Just over a month ago we were well over £200 up, we’re now £125 down and that’s before subscription payments are accounted for.
I’m reluctant to just write this off as a fail as I think there’s something there for us, it’s just that we’re testing it at a time of massive change in the world as well as changes on the Index.
To the figures, the portfolio has cost £3,227 to buy, we’ve been paid £162 in dividends, made £435 in sales, and the current paper value of our shares is £2,505
I’ll update again in a few weeks time
After the spectacular gains of the last report, we’ve seen some heavy losses this time.
To be fair, we were explicitly told (by the service) that there would almost certainly be a reduction of the value of our portfolio as a direct result of the full introduction of the Bid/Offer Matching Book system that the Index have now introduced. This new method calculates the Buy & Sell price by taking an average of the next 300 shares waiting to be traded.
The service did say that they expected a downturn in value as traders reacted to the new methods, but that it would be a short term reaction. and we would see normality return soon. What we weren’t warned about, and to be fair couldn’t be warned about, was the carnage caused by the new method coinciding with the fallout from the Neymar sending off.
Although I was not keeping a close eye on the market around the time of the PSG match, I’m led to believe that Neymar and the other payers involved saw their prices dip as a result of the sending off and that this set in motion a bit of an overall market mini crash, with people seeming to panic sell.
It has wiped out what profit we had accrued and left us in minus terriotory again.
Thankfully, we seem to have turned the corner already and have recovered some of the losses since I recorded all my figures on Tuesday.
The service took the reduced prices as an opportunity to buy lots of new players in the hope of gathering in some In Play Dividends. Most of the rest of Europe are starting their new seasons this weekend, so it’s an ideal time to get some of these short term purchases done. You only get Inplay Divi payouts for the first 30 days of ownership.
We’ve also listed a lot of players for sale. The service took advantage of the new Offer method to set the price we’re willing to accept for our shares in a good number of our players. They gave us a Min and Max figure to quote for our sales. I went for 1p under the middle point of each bracket, in the hope that I’d be in prime position to shift these players as soon as poss. So far, I have managed to sell one, but a good few of the others are close to my price and will go if they have a decent game and traders look to pick them up for the Inplay Divi I’m no longer entitled to for these long held shares
SO to the figures: I spent £2,815.80 building my portfolio. It is currently worth £2,414.90, I’ve made £258.59 in share sales, and been paid £98.33 in dividends. Leaving an on papaer loss of £44, and that’s before subscription payments.
I genuinely don’t think the service are responsible for the losses over the last couple of weeks. This was down to the change in the Buy/Sell price method of calculation, and then a market “crash” very much akin to those you may see on any Share Index being sparked by a wobble in trader confidence setting of an stampede to see by people over-reacting.
Having said that, I’m very glad I chose to keep this trial going, rather than wrapping up after our usual 3 Month period. Lets see if the recovery continues.
Despite the recent losses, I actually think this might be a very good time to get involved, as prices are as low as they’ve been for some players. I could well be wrong, and the bottoming out may continue, but I’m cautiously optimistic that this will recover quite well and filling our boots now, while the new seasons are starting up, could well gather in plenty of Inplay Dividends, which will push the share price up as a consequence.
No verdict yet, but I’m happy to continue for a while yet.
*EDIT: JUST DID A QUICK CALC AND MY “ON PAPER” IS NOW -£15, SO IT’S RECOVERED £30 SINCE TUESDAY THROUGH DIVIDENDS AND INCREASED SHARE PRICE
OOFT!! What a couple of weeks for this service, and Football Index as a whole.
The week before last was very good for us, dividend-wise, as we had players that did well in both European finals. We also saw a bit of an upturn in general market value as traders reacted well to a press release saying that an increase and restructuring of dividends would soon be announced. There was also news of a huge marketing drive to be unleashed in September that (it’s hoped) will attract plenty of new members to add extra liquidity to the market. The announcement of a shirt sponsorship deal with Q.P.R. would seem to suggest they intend putting their money where their mouth is (feel free to put your own club bias spin on that bit. I quite liked going to The Springbok back in the 80-90’s, so view them with a slightly less furrowed brow than I do other London rivals).
Last week was even better! The increase in market value had continued but, when the promised Dividend Restructuring arrived, things went a bit mad. Share prices increased, in some cases very dramatically, as traders reacted to the fantastic news of payouts DOUBLING! This really is exciting news as the dividends mount up very quickly. The last few months have been a bit flat for the market prices; this has been blamed on the uncertainty of pretty much everything in the world at the moment and also the introduction, in several stages, of a new Matching Engine by NASDAQ which will allow traders far more control in deciding the price they want to buy and sell at. Given all those concerns, it’s rather impressive that on my last update in mid August, we’d made about £50 in dividends from our portfolio that had cost us around £2,300. While hardly earth-moving, it’s not too shabby given the dividends were set at 1p-8p for most of that time, so the increase is very welcome.
Another benefit of the huge upturn in share prices is that we’ve finally been able to sell a few players that we’ve had listed for quite a while, including Kolarov who we were warned could end up being a total loss for us. He had been expected to move to a league not fully covered by Football Index, meaning nobody was going to buy our shares in him as he wouldn’t be earning for us next year, but when it was strongly rumoured that he’d be moving to Inter, his price stabilised and when the dividend announcement shifted his price in the right direction we actually ended up making a small profit, even after paying commission. Most of our other listed players went through too.
We had one additional buy this week and a few players were added to the Do Not Buy list for new members as their price is deemed to have risen so far as to be poor value now.
So to the figures. My portfolio of players cost £2,503.39, it is currently valued at £2,460.49, I have made £188.79 of sales (after comm) and been paid a total of £86.19 in Dividends. So as of Tuesday I’m about £230 up. We are now in profit even after paying subs for the 4 months since we started in June (rounding it up) at £35 a month, that works out to £140. This is the first time we’ve been ahead after subs were accounted for.
I’ve said we’re 4 months into this trial but I’m still not ready to call it. This needs another couple of months, if it continues in the manner it has so far, but with the new structures and the hugely improved liquidity, then it’ll make really good money from an interesting and very different source to our usual fodder and I’ll certainly be recommending it. That probably wouldn’t have been the case a month ago; it was heading for a Neutral as we weren’t covering the subs and we weren’t managing to sell our unwanted shares, but it was bouncing along showing potential. I’ll give it a month or so into the new season and then make the call, but I’m very happy with it at the moment. The new dividend level, the introduction of Team Of The Month, the full Matching Engine being introduced, new traders coming onboard and current traders getting used to what football is post Lurgy-Lull, is all very exciting.
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It’s been a few weeks since I updated you on progress of this service.
There’s not really been an awful lot to report. We have bought a few more players and added extra shares to some we already owned. We do have some shares in players up for sale, but no outriht sales have been made yet, I did manage to sell a few shares in one player that we were advised to lower our holding.
We are currently over the amount originally allocated as a starting bank. It;s not right to call this a “blown” bank, as we hold shares that also exceed the starting amount, so I’m willing to carry on for now.
This is around the timeframe we would normally be looking to give a Approved/Failed verdict but I don’t think that’s possible yet, due to all the weirdness going on with the pandemic and the nature of this serice, it’s going to need longer than our usual 3 months.
As things stand, I’ve spent £2368.47 buying shares, my portfolio is worth £2323.11, I’ve been paid £47.69 in dividends, and sold £23 of shares. So I reckon I’m about £25 up on paper, before subscriptions and commission charges.
I think that once the new seasons get going, and Football Index’s new order matching systems fully kick in I’ll be ready to give a proper verdict, but until then, I think I’ll keep it going and see how we get on selling some of our players and hopefully taking some profit to cover the subs.
I’m going to be recording results for Lay To 5K and the trial should last the 3 months in which they plan to complete the massive task of turning a £50 starting bank into a £5000 end target.
They are going to be using Lay bets only, covering both football and horse racing.
I’m sure we’ve all seen these sort of claims before, but not that many of them are willing to let us run the rule over them and report our findings in full, fewer still will offer a 30 Day Money Back Guarantee backed up by Clickbank, so I’m willing to give it a go. Nothing ventured etc…
When Graham & I were discussing starting this trial he asked me how long it would last, and said his bet was 3 weeks. My guess was 2 weeks tops. We’re 6 days in and the bank is lost.
I already placed this review on the back-burner due to performance and communication issues.
Those issues have not improved, emails still go unanswered, performance hasn’t pick up much
I think it’s time to pull the plug
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