Another profitable month for July, with a profit of 13.24 points to one point level stakes. This is below the monthly average but a decent profit to £10 stakes after subscription costs. Strike rate was 64% of 222 bets, so average winning odds quite a bit lower than June, with an ROI of 5.9%. Longest losing run was 8, and longest winning run was also 8.
I am grateful to Cash Master subscriber Gerry, who does use Betfair for these bets, and made the following observation:
If you wait say half hour before the game starts and check on Betfair, often things change. Sometimes the over points drop with the same odds, which of course is in your favour. It gives you an idea of how the game might go. Betfair are obviously getting updated info on the teams. I think Betfair have the most efficient odds compared to bookies. I know for a fact a lot of bookies wait till they see what Betfair odds are.
If the goalposts are moved prematch, maybe there are some trading angles to exploit?
You can try Basketball Geek here