It’s time to wrap this trial up and give my final verdict.
The idea behind this system is to place two bets before kick off on two separate markets with one acting as an insurance policy if the other gets into trouble, you then close all open trades at half time. It’s a decent idea in theory but it does not live up to expectations in real life situations.
I made a comment not long into the trial and the results since then have confirmed my feelings at the time, the insurance bet costs you too much money when things go right and does not provide enough cover if they go wrong.
This is not a unique method. Not long after I started the trial, one of my fellow bloggers pointed out that he had an almost identical system that dates from several years before this one. I also had the feeling that I’d seen something similar before and on opening up an ancient file on an old P.C. I found I had a copy of the same method dated 2005. Both these older versions were better written and had more sensible get out strategies, although they did suffer from the same market failings as this one.
I do also have some issues of concern about the way this e-book is written. Other than an odds range, there’s no real match selection criteria given. The book is pretty much just a series of screenshots showing successful trades and makes many references to the fact that the profit figures shown are for just $30 stakes and just imagine how much you could make with $300 trades. The problem is that there’s relatively little liquidity in the insurance bet’s market. Even in the bigger leagues the pre-kick off matched figure is often around or below the £1000 mark.
It’s not all bad news. I did make a profit while using the system exactly as it’s written and it has prompted me to get my thinking cap on and come up with a twist on it that I can play around with and improve further.
So on the positive side we have the fact that I did actually make a profit using it exactly as it’s written, it’s pretty quick and simple to understand and it’s unlikely to totally blow your bank. On the negative side we have an old method, no real selection criteria, limited liquidity, the insurance leaves a shortfall if you run into trouble, a fairly high purchase price and no refunds offered.
I think a rating of NEUTRAL is about right for this system. The fact that I did make a profit even though I ran into trouble on a few bets is enough to save it from an outright Failed listing but there are significant negatives that mean it’s not close to Approved, the biggest gripe is that the purchase price is quite high and there is a no refunds policy which is a big problem if you buy this then find out that you already have the same method from a previous product.
You can get the Betfair Success Formula here: