With Wimbledon just around the corner, it is the ideal time to get into tennis trading.
Whether you have tried trading tennis before or not, Tennis Profits is suitable for all levels. It has everything you need to get started as a beginner, with full support from tennis trading expert Paul Shires.
If you are already at a more advanced level, you will find the Player Stats and Live Stats tool indispensable to your trade selection.
As Paul explains, the Live Stats tool features “a Match Situation Stats pop-up that displays stats relevant to the current match situation.”
“Tie break coming up? It shows the players tie break record in the last year.”
“The first set’s just finished? The pop-up will show how likely the set winner is to take the match in straight sets.”
“It shows how often the set loser gets the first break in set 2 and many more.”
Joining Tennis Profits now gets you two months for the price of one!
I’ve just heard that Kieran Ward over at Make Your Betting Pay is releasing a completely free manual of profitable angles for following Jump Jockeys on the Summer Jumps from June to September.
Over the last 4 years backing all of the selection thrown up by these angles would have seen you profit to the tune of £18,471 to £20 stakes at Betfair SP.
That’s quite the edge!
Grab your free copy here before he changes his mind!
They’ve averaged 3 or 4 bets per day June to September in that time and the selections take just a couple of minutes to find each morning.
Kieran has released similar manuals before and sold them for £57. Even if the angles perform a quarter as well going forward, that would be an absolute snip.
When I began reviewing CWK an advised bank of 1000 pts was recommended. So I invested $1000 into the venture. This amount proved sufficient to purchase all the initial coins that were within the advised price range with some spare $ cash. However as the crypto market entered a bear phase, some unbought coins fell within the purchase range and the original $1000 was insufficient to purchase all of them. Furthermore, additional coins continue to be recommended outside the main coin portfolio – in fact, 23 so far! I have invested $10 each on these additional coins.
Since the last update, two of the additional coins were partly sold for profit as advised by the service.
In order to cover the whole portfolio and future coins, I’ve assumed a starting bank of 2000 pts (=$2000), and the results are back-fitted to this.
Acquisition Cost and Starting Bank for the Review: $2000 (September 25th, 2021)
Minimum Bank: $927.35 (January 2nd, 2023)
Maximum Bank: $2701.81 (November 28th, 2021)
Number of Profitable Months: 7/20
Number of Losing Months: 13/20
Number of different crypto coins in the portfolio: 38
Coins currently lost due to the collapse of the FTX exchange: 5
Current Bank: $1052.22 (June 1st, 2023)
Profit/Loss: -$947.78
Return on Bank: -47.4%
Return on Invested Money to date: -60.0%
Unused cash: $420
The graph below shows the daily value of my portfolio from September 25th, 2021 through June 1st, 2023.
It’s quite clear from the graph, that the CWK portfolio has performed poorly during this review. It is primarily a long-term service (at least at present) that is most likely to raise its value during the next bull run, that is why I am continuing to monitor it.
In general, the best time to sign up for a crypto service is at or near the bottom of a bear market as this is the time when the coins are at their greatest value for long-term growth. We are still in an Accumulation Phase (following the last Bear Phase) at present.
Currently, you can snag quarterly membership at £199.97 or yearly membership at £599.97.
This heavily promoted service from the Bet Lucrative stable launched at the end of February. The Challenge was that they will try to win 1000 betting points within a year using their Value bets, which are their best performing, by including them in accumulator bets on a daily basis. Because the average price of the selections is high, if they do succeed in finding a few winners on the same day, chances are that it could go a long way towards the 1000 points, or even do it in one fell swoop.
Where do I start with this? Let’s start with the Value bets. The advice is that Value bets are this agency’s best performing service, so we should create our bank by betting on the Value selections until it has accrued to the desired bank of 500 points. Then we will use the bank to bet additionally on accumulator bets with the same selections, thereby using bookie profits to target the big wins (with average odds of around 13, you can see how this would work if successful).
The guarantee is, if you haven’t made your 1000 points profit within a year, your subscription to Value selections will continue at no further charge until you have. (It’s not clear whether that means at the odds advised, or at the odds achieved, and this is one of a few unclear aspects of this service, including the following point)
Those who signed up for The Challenge are presumably new to the Value selections, but the accumulators are advised from day one. So what happens if, during the course of building the 500 point bank, the acca is landed? Does the guarantee expire at that point?
By the way, how is that bank growing at this 3 month mark? Well, it’s minus 52 points at the prices I achieved, so that’s just 552 points to go. I did point out in my earlier blog on this service that the Value bets have shown long term profitability (again, this depends on odds achieved of course, and whilst I don’t doubt the integrity of the odds quoted, having followed the service for three months, I often failed to achieve advised odds [sometimes I did better], it would be good practice for them to name bookies where they have achieved the odds. I would then have been better able to monitor the odds and check the extra places which are sometimes included in the results, even though they aren’t mentioned in the advice).
But there are other questions which need answering. Firstly, the cost of the service for the year (let’s base it on this, as you get the 64% discount over the quarterly membership) is £197 GBP. Underneath this price it says RRP £564. Where does that recommended price come from? I mean, who has recommended it? Where is the transparency?
We are also left somewhat in the dark over the accumulator bets, when there are two selections in the same race. The advice is to take the selection at the higher odds (it doesn’t give any advice as to what you should do if both runners are the same price, and this did happen very early in the trial). Now I think this is crazy. How painful would it be if you would have had a patent up but for choosing the wrong horse where there are two selections in the same race? At the prices, these winners don’t come along too often, so when they do, you don’t want to miss them. So what I’ve done to address this in my results is I’ve divided the stakes in half where there are two selections in the same race. The weakness in this, of course, is that where there are winners you will only win half the payout, so you could just double your stakes on these occasions. As it turned out in the trial, I did win five which would not have won if I had followed the advice. There was only one which would have won by taking the higher odds runner. As there are no published results for the accas at this stage, I don’t know either if they will be published, or if they are, if they will claim the results where, against advice, the lower odds runner was a winner.
One more gripe about the accumulators, then I’ll get to the results of the trial. As the accas are based on each way doubles, patents, lucky 15s and lucky 31s, the outlay can be as high as 62 points plus the 10 points, because effectively we’re backing the singles twice; once for our basic singles tips, and then for the acca bets, except in the doubles. Personally I will leave the singles off the accas, so my Lucky 15 will be a Yankee, my Lucky 31 a Canadian, etc. We back the singles anyway. But my results will be recorded as the suggested bets (other than when we have two selections in the same race, see above).
THE RESULTS 28/2/23-31/5/23
Since the average odds of the Value bets is high (around 13 for the odds achieved in my trial), there are bound to be long losing runs. Indeed, as I pointed out in my earlier blog, this service went from 3rd March 2017 to 25th January 2018 with 735 bets and no increase in the bank. Just think about that for a moment. BUT, they always stayed within the bank, and eventually came back with a bang.So it’s not really much of a surprise that I ended up minus 52 points on the value bets (1 point each way).
Selections: 253
Winners: 23
Placed: 53
Lost: 177
Void: 9
Average odds winners/placed: 10.6
Average odds all selections: 13.1
Longest winning run: 3
Longest losing run: 17
Strike rate: 30%
Profit/loss: -52
ROI: -21%
Getting into the accumulators for The Challenge, the bank (500 points) was busted on 26th May, but 3 days later came storming back with a 76 point profit patent. Because of the high staking, these raced to 100 points down within the first seven betting days. There were a few moments of respite, most notably a 151 points profit on a Lucky 15 on 19th April where there were two winners and a place. The overall loss of 490 points during the trial would have been worse if I had not ignored the advice to only back the higher odds runner if there were more than one selection in a race, including 77 points on a patent on March 28th.
Overall, the outcome of this trial is pretty much what you would expect, once you can see what’s involved, and the high odds of the selections. The inducement of making 1000 points in a year and, if not, free access to selections afterwards until the target is reached, does sound enticing. Until you watch your bank sliding away rather rapidly.
It wouldn’t be a massive surprise to me if this challenge was successful at some time. After all, as recently as 29th May, two of the selections in a patent won, both at 8.0. If the 3rd one had won (it wasn’t close) it would have yielded 3418 points and job done. However, you need to have deep pockets and a hefty dollop of faith to stick with it. And of course, it may never happen. And the most you would lose on the access is the £197 annual membership, but if you add the cost of the staking, even at only £1/point, you would already be £741 down by now.
If you don’t mind a very high stakes lottery, this could be of interest. I’m required to award the service a pass/neutral/fail rating for the blog. That’s quite a tough call, because different levels of risk suit different bettors. I’m not the type of punter that this would appeal to being fairly risk averse, so I think the fairest outcome would be a neutral rating, but I would certainly like to see the service tidied up with the points I’ve raised in this blog.
Betting Mastermind is a football betting service provided by Stuart who I have actually known in the betting space for over a decade.
You get an email each morning with the tips for the day and you simply place a 1 point level stake on each selection and get on with your day.
He now provides tips in four specific football markets:
Back the Draw Back the Home Win Back the Away Win Back Over 0.5 First Half Goals
Plus they are testing the Under 2.5 market.
The service costs £39.99 per month.
There is also an additional option of completely automating this service with a betting bot, namely BF Bot Manager. There is no extra charge for this from Stuart although of course you’ll need your own subscription to BF Bot Manager (and a VPS if you want it all running in the cloud). Since I do already run BF Bot Manager for other strategies I chose to use this option as it made this trial effortless. The bot automatically downloads the selections each day and bets on them so all I have to do is check to see how they are doing once in a while.
As usual, I bet at the CashMaster standard of £10 level stakes, betting on Betfair. I ran this since 21st December 2022 and here are my final results:
It’s worth noting that Stuart abandoned the Lay the Draw strategy in March and introduced the Under 2.5 Strategy under test a little later.
So the final results are as follows:
All five strategies: -£344.28
Without Lay the Draw and Under 2.5: £162.08
Without Lay the Draw: £67.71
Even if I had been running this trial without the Lay the Draw or the Under 2.5 strategy it would have made a profit of £162.08 after five and a half months which wouldn’t have covered the subscription, and especially not if using the betting bot and the VPS.
As such I did use all strategies and lost £344 and either way this one has to go down as a fail.
This is a trading system based on backing horses (mostly short-priced favourites) at bookmakers and laying them minutes later at the exchanges. Unique to LT is that it makes use of two key bookmaker promotion features: the first is BOG and the second you can discover on purchase. It is these two features that enable profits to be made on the vast majority of trades with only a few small losing trades. Indeed, it is these two features that provide the loophole compared to normal trading or normal hedging. LT is actually a form of hybrid trading as it sometimes involves trading within the bookmaker too.
Al Gibbs, the creator of this system, reports that he was able to take advantage of this loophole for 2-3 months (before being gubbed) mainly using just two bookmakers. Using what he called his safe (low-risk) method he made £2093.58 after 275 bets. So an average of £7.61 a trade and practically a straight line up on the graph below. In fact, 97% of these trades ended in profit. He used £250 per bet, but since this is trading that amount is not at risk. The more accounts you have access to, the more profit you can make. For this profit, one would need a starting bank of about £1000-£1100 split into £250 for each of the two bookies and £500-£600 for the Betfair exchange. A larger bank would enable you to stake higher (using more bookmakers) and cover more selections. However, you can begin with as little as £100. Since you’re only paying a one-time fee of £97 (plus VAT) to join, then it doesn’t matter if you only average £1 profit per bet when learning/practicing the system.
One will inevitably be gubbed at the bookmakers making extensive use of the two loophole features. However, if one spreads one’s bets out over a number of bookies, gubbings can be delayed. There are many suitable bookies available to UK punters including (in order of preference for LT): Bet365, SkyBet, Paddy Power, William Hill, BetVictor/Parimatch, Betway, Vbet, Livescorebet, Betfred, Coral, VirginBet, 888, Ladbrokes, BoyleSports and QuinnBet. Two more have been recently added to the LT list (in no particular order): Grovesnor Sports, and Netbet.
There is a step-by-step user guide and a built-in calculator that caters to every possible trading scenario.
You need to be around before each race (at least 15 mins and up to 30 mins beforehand) to place bets. There is currently evening and always weekend horse racing for those unable to use LT during the working day.
Loophole Trader’s one-off payment of £97 plus VAT comes with no subscriptions or extra charges.
I am happy to approve Loophole Trader. Anyone who has access to a couple of the bookmakers listed above should be able to make weekly profits for a couple of months. And if you have the time and access to many of the above bookmakers, you could make £200 per week for several months making you thousands.
Currently, time considerations prevent me from doing an ongoing review. But I have checked the workings carefully and everything is above-board. I fully approve of The Loophole Trader.
It is difficult to know what to do with this trial. We now have 263 bets and could draw a conclusion. However, the increase in the number of tips per day only started on 20th April, as this is just over a month ago I would like to run the trial for a little longer to give this change a fair review. The service is 36 points down since the change was made.
Another poor month. I hope the increase in the number of tips starts providing more winners soon as the 62-point deficit needs to be fixed. In fairness, May is a tricky month for flat racing and my personal system took a clobbering in May too. I am hoping things will improve through June.
Another month ends with only 51 single bets and 33 Trixies there is not enough data on which to base a conclusion. The next few months are going to be odd ones as the focus will be on the summer football leagues as the main European leagues have either finished their 2022-2023 seasons or are closing soon. I’ll keep this blog going as I’d like to include the start of the 2023-24 season.
A poor month for the SINGLES but better for the TRIXIES helped by an 18.2-point winner where all 3 legs won.
If you’ve been following our reviews for any length of time you’ll know we’ve tested literally hundreds of betting services over the years and seen pretty much every kind of betting strategy going.
One thing I get asked a lot is “what is the best system/service?” and the problem with that is that it depends entirely on what the person asking this is looking for. Are they actually interested in the sport or do they just want something that could make a profit. Are they prepared to put in time and effort themselves or do they want everything done for them. Do they want lots of bets every day to keep them interested or just a few? Are they more interested in high odds winners with the inevitable long losing streaks or do they prefer a high strike rate with the low odds winners that entails?
And of course you have to be careful with the marketing we see with a few services. Some may indeed produce “an average of 10 points a month” but when you sign up you realise it’s because they’re betting 5-10 points per bet on 20+ bets and you need a 1000+ point bank just to get started, or that 8 out of the 12 months are losers!
However, there’s one service that I really like a lot that makes no spectacular claims. In fact, since launching in October 2021 these are the results:
Year 1 October 21 – August 22
To 1 point stake: 11.74 points To advised stakes: 10 points
Year 2 October 22 to date May 23:
To 1 point stake: 3.37 points To advised stakes: 6.02 points
Advised stakes are usually 1 point win with occasional 0.5 win/1 place, or 1 win/1.5 place.
As you can see these sort of results don’t necessarily give you a rush of blood enticing you to sign up immediately and start getting rich. In fact, you could be forgiven for thinking this all seems a bit drab.
But you’d be missing something really quite special here if you didn’t take a second look.
This service is simply a delight to be a member of and for the first time in years it’s not just about making a profit from it (which we do) but actually enjoying the racing too.
There are very few bets; only 24 so far this year (since October) so when we get the green light it’s worth sitting down to watch!
And of course with this kind of service you will want to bet “larger” than you may be used to, but the recommended betting bank is only 20 points and that’s never been even slightly dented with around half of the bets winning and at average odds of between 13/8 and 7/4.
The write ups on each bet are superb, in fact the write ups on the bets we DON’T take are superb too, including the reasons why we’re not backing the horse that everyone else thinks is a dead cert (there’s potentially a service there in itself for the lay bettors amongst you).
There’s also a members chat room where we can all celebrate the winners and mull over the losers but throughout there is a real sense of professionalism and humility from Mel, the seasoned tipster who genuinely takes pride in providing what I would describe as possibly the best advice I’ve seen in this industry. He make not make you rich but he can certainly enrich your betting.
There’s a First Class Racing Live Q&A tomorrow at 7pm on Wednesday 31st May.
On it you can find out exactly how he does it.
They’ll cover…
Mel’s betting history, including the decades he spent losing money.
The specifics of his First Class Racing strategy, including running through a real selection, so you can really understand what separates Mel from other tipsters.
His approach to the Cheltenham Festival, which is coming up next month (spoiler alert, Mel’s 2022 Cheltenham results were stellar – more on that in future emails).
And then they’ll open up the floor to let you ask Mel any and every question you have about his approach or the First Class Racing service.
After that, Mel will share a tip for the upcoming Epsom Derby on 3rd June – usually just for paying members, but yours free on the night!
Plus, they’ll also give you the chance to join Mel and his happy members in the First Class Racing community.
Don’t miss this one if you want to make money while the rest of the world seems to be losing it! If you can’t make it tomorrow then they will be recording it and I’ll let you know where that’s posted when it’s ready.
It’s a real delight at long last to report on a super profitable tipster. A huge profit of 404.33 pts for mostly 1 point each way betting with a remarkable return on the starting bank of 134.78 %.
Since the last update six months ago, every month has returned a profit with an overall gain during this period of 367.27 pts. This clearly warrants an upgrade from Neutral to Approved.
Here are the stats for the one-year review:
Starting Review Date: 10th May 2022
Current Review Period End Date: 9th May 2023
Starting Bank (recommended): 300 pts
Minimum Bank: 243.48 pts (15th October 2022)
Maximum Bank: 732.93 pts (27th April 2023)
Number of Profitable Months: 9/12
Current Bank: 704.33 pts
Number of Bets: 750
Non-Runners or Race Void: 81
Number of Profitable Bets: 119
Strike Rate (% of profitable bets): 17.79 %
Longest Tip Losing Run: 20
Odds Range: 6.0 to 201.0
Profit/Loss: 404.33 pts
Return on Bank: 134.78 %
Betting at the standard CashMaster £10 a point (equating to £5 each way) results in a gross profit of £2021.65 and a net profit of £1611.65 (after fees of £410).
Odds availability: odds are advised by email at 8.01 am or very shortly afterward (plus sometimes late Friday afternoon). One needs to be ready at 8 am as some of the odds can fall quickly. I used the following bookmakers mainly: Bet365, Paddypower, and BetVictor. Plus others: Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, Betfred and BetUK. By far the best bookie for this tipster is Bet365 which has Best Odds Guaranteed at this time in the morning and frequently the best odds.
It is important to note that the email tips are sent out automatically at 8 am, but they are prepared around midnight until 2 am. So some of the odds in the email are no longer available. All my results are from the odds that are available at 8.01 am or very shortly afterward when the email arrives.
The graph below gives the bank over the one-year period, starting at 300 pts:
As one can see from the graph above, there was a very long losing streak of 180.45 points over 218 tips (from Tip Number 118 to Tip Number 336) covering almost four months. This explains why the initial six-month review only garnered a neutral rating. Given the average odds (about 34.0) of the tips, long-losing streaks are inevitable.
Nevertheless, this is the best tipster that I’ve ever reviewed and achieves an obvious pass. However, a strong caveat: this service is not for the novice gambler or the faint-hearted. It’s best for semi-professional or professional gamblers. The downfall in the graph lasted over 14 weeks and if one had signed up for a 6-month period at the start of the downturn, placing £5 each way bets, one would have been out of pocket by £1127.75 (including fees). This is, however, why we have a starting bank of 300. If the starting bank was 300 pts at Tip Number 118, it would have fallen to 119.55 pts at Tip Number 336: so the bank was still well intact.
Given also the size of the profit, the service would return profits (albeit reduced) for almost all, if not all, bookmakers posting early prices.
Always remember that past performance is not always indicative of future performance.
All the bets have now played out so I can post the results for April. Similar to the Singles, I don’t have enough data to draw a conclusion so I’ll keep going through May.
2 wins and a partial win where two of the matches won have made for a great month pulling the Trixies back on track.
There are still open bets on the trixies so this is a report on the singles for April only.
April netted quite a few wins matching the strike rate and returning a profit. I am sorry, but I just spotted that my summary formula in Excel was utter tosh so below are the amended figures.
Here are the results for April, and we are still going in the wrong direction. There has been a change in the nature of this service; from an email on the 20th, “It’s time to get the winners flowing again. I must admit I’ve been really reducing the number of bets lately and sod’s law always means the ones I exclude are winning and the ones I go with end up losing.
I’ve monitored this for a couple of weeks and I’ll loosening [sic] the reigns slightly so please expect more bets from today onwards”.
This month has seen more bets (63) than the first two months combined (57), 47 of these bets have come since the 20th. This means that I may collect enough data to form an opinion sooner than anticipated when this trial started.
We are at the 3-month mark, and normally we’d be looking to bring a trial to a close. With only 77 bets before the change to the service, and only 10 days since the change, I do not feel that I have enough data to give this service a fair review and we’ll keep going for at least another month.
Do you want to know more about the races you’re betting on, while spending less time than you do now? Are you ready to take your racing betting to the next level and have a lot more fun along the way? If you do, and you are, then what follows could transform your punting.
Geegeez Gold is the eleven-time award-winning racecard and form tool software preferred by casual and professional players alike, for a plethora of reasons.
And, for the next 72 hours, you can ‘steal’ a seriously heavy – and unlikely ever to be repeated – discount.
Here’s a quick recap of what you’re going to get with Geegeez Gold, and why you need it:
Comprehensive data: Access to extensive UK and Irish horse racing data, including form, ratings, and stats, so you can level up your betting decisions with confidence and have more fun trying to predict the winner.
Easy to use: Simple and user-friendly interface with quick navigation and efficient research, so you can find the information you need fast and enjoy a seamless betting experience.
Ratings: Advanced ratings that help identify runners likely to perform well in upcoming races, so you can make more profitable bets and have more fun cheering for your chosen horses.
Stats Stats Stats: In-depth analysis of trainer, jockey, horse and sire performance, highlighting key trends and insights, so you can make smarter decisions when betting on horses trained, ridden or sired by specific individuals and have more fun tracking their progress.
Form tools: Tools to analyse the form, including graphical representations, to help identify patterns and trends, so you can spot value betting opportunities and have more fun watching your picks outperform expectation.
Instant Expert: Our unique tool provides a summary of each horse’s strengths and weaknesses, making it easier to assess their chances of winning, so you can make more accurate predictions and have more fun betting against other horse racing enthusiasts.
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And that’s just the tip of the iceberg in terms of what’s inside Geegeez Gold.
Let me be frank, if you’re not using this sort of information, how are you going to compete with the growing number of players who are?
Right now, you have a very limited time window to get everything inside Geegeez Gold for the flat season (and beyond) at a rate lower than it’s been for more than SEVEN years.
Don’t miss out on this limited-time offer. Go Here and get Gold at a heavy discount. With Geegeez Gold, you’ll have everything you need to make smarter, more profitable bets on UK horse racing and have more fun in the process.
This will be the only update following the service’s approval in February 2023. It covers the period 16 February – 4 April 2023 (just under seven weeks). During this period, I placed 192 bets which included matched qualifiers and free bets placed on value tips. I made £271.03. For paying subscribers that would equate to a net profit of £244.40.
Due to account restrictions, I made use of some bookies not currently utilized in MDP such as BetUK, Zedbet, Highbet, Vickers (Free Bet Club), and Fitzdares to generate some of the free bets.
During the same time period, MDP officially made £362.63 with only 135 bets. A person who had access to the following ungubbed accounts – Betfred, Paddypower, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Midnite, and Betfair Sports Book – would have been able to make very close to this amount if putting in the appropriate effort. There may have been some loss of value (up to 5%) if some of the bets were not placed immediately. The time taken would be about 20-30 mins a day on average, this includes record keeping. MDP does provide a spreadsheet to assist in record keeping.
Overall, I have made £3004.24 (after players’ subs) after almost 34 months, almost entirely with one set of bookie accounts. It is worthwhile to learn how to place mug bets as they, in my experience, do lengthen bonus opportunities in many bookies. Mug betting is covered in MDP. The graph below shows my bank movement over the seven weeks. One can see that there are losing periods – as unlike a typical matched betting approach it does not move upwards in a near-straight line.
The service remains strongly approved.
The cost of MDP is £67.00 for three months or £197 for one year.
Due to poor health, I wasn’t able to post the results for last month last weekend.
With 12 wins from 34, this service isn’t firing on all cylinders as yet. Hopefully, now the flat season has started, we will see a rise in profitability.
TRIXIES The 3 wins from 7 bets this month were all partial wins where 1 leg of the Trixie lost. I have yet to see a Trixie where all 3 matches win. Here the results are to a bet total of £5.
I am aware that £5 is not the CashMaster standard stake, but these are the stakes advised in the emails. I will make the necessary adjustment when I write the summary for this system.
1,000 points profit in a year is asking a lot, and when I got sight of the methodology it was no surprise that this involves accumulators. It was either that, or high points staking.
The premise is that you take a successful tipping service with a strong track record, and you use some of the profits from these to place on accumulators. The suggestion is that you should wait for the profits to arrive before embarking on the acca placements, so when the challenge is to accumulate 1000 points in the year AFTER the stated bank of 500 points is achieved, it isn’t clear whether the challenge began when people signed up for the service at the end of February, or if it begins when the profits of 500 points are in place. For our testing run, I’ve assumed we already have the profits, the suggestion is a 500 points bank and stakes at 1%. So my trial is based on 1 point stakes for both the individual bets and the accas. As the accas are based on each way doubles, patents, lucky 15s and lucky 31s, the outlay can be as high as 62 points plus the 10 points, because effectively we’re backing the singles twice; once for our basic singles tips, and then for the acca bets, except in the doubles. Personally I will leave the singles off the accas, so my Lucky 15 will be a Yankee, my Lucky 31 a Canadian, etc. We back the singles anyway. But my results will be recorded as the suggested bets (other than when we have two selections in the same race, see below).
This system is based on the Value bets from the Lucrative service. These are high odds bets that, according to the tipster, represent value (ie, the actual chances of a runner winning its race are better than that reflected by the odds offered). Obviously, the maths of this idea are correct; over a period of time, if you always manage to bet on something where the odds offered are bigger than the true chances of winning, you will come out in front. Value in the case of horse racing is obviously based on opinion (as opposed to the tossing of a coin, if you’re offered 51% on it landing on heads, you will win in the end, value is here based on fact). So, how do we know that a tipster’s opinion represents true value? Well, the results are the best indicator (but unlike fact, opinion means what happened in the past may not continue to happen in the future).
So, because the odds are high, there are obviously long losing runs (one of 18 last year without a placed horse), and the bank advised is based on this. So if you’re going to assign a 500 point bank to this service, you need to be prepared for a large chunk of that disappearing before you see an upturn. This is the reason the service advises you back the singles and only back the accas when you are well in front from the singles.
When these promotional emails go out, everything looks hunky dory and easy profit making; but in action the psychology is a lot harder, and most of us have a natural defence mechanism which is averse to watching our hard-earned going down the pan. There’s a free trial with this but it’s only 7 days, and that’s not going to test your psychology. So you have to ask yourself, if you have a 500 point bank, and that bank goes to 300 points down, would you continue with it? You know how it works: you pull out and the very next day there’s a 300 point acca winner!
I’ve been in this game for a long time, and worked with a lot of people, tipsters and bettors, and my view is that most people are not comfortable with this type of long losing run betting. But if you do have the long term mindset, it can be very lucrative.
Promoters will typically crow about best case scenarios, but for me, I always want to look at the worst case scenario of past results. In the case of Value tips, they went from 3rd March 2017 to 25th January 2018 with 735 bets and no increase in the bank. Just think about that for a moment. BUT, they always stayed within the bank, and eventually came back with a bang. However, at £37 a month subs you would have paid £370 in that time without moving forward. How many of would have persevered? And with The Challenge, which promises free access if it fails to make the aim of 1000 points in a year, there could be a feeling of gullibility about the subs already paid by then.
You probably didn’t come here to listen to a homily, and I know many of you are, like me, long enough in the tooth to know these things already. I will mention a couple of other things about this service which I see as somewhat problematic. When there is more than one runner in a race, we’re advised that where the acca is concerned, we should take the highest priced runner. To me, this is a bit random (I don’t know what that means other than the conventional sense, but my kids use it, so I thought I’d throw it in). For example, on day one of my trial, there were two in the same race, but they were exactly the same price. So just choose one? But more than this, how painful is it going to be that you pick the higher priced horse, and the lower priced horse wins? I can’t have that, so what I’m doing is splitting my stake, so in this case I placed two half point ew patents. That may or may not work out to be more profitable, but it’s the possibility of missing a winning bet which I struggle with.
The same is true for the minimum odds. We’re advised not to back a horse lower than minimum stated odds, because it therefore doesn’t represent value. I will disregard that advice. A winning horse is a winning horse: whether the sp is 7/1 or 8/1, I’ll still be happy. But if I left it off an otherwise winning acca, I would miss out on a big pay out. You do wonder, where a lower priced horse of two in the same race wins, or where one wins but is below minimum odds, how the results will be recorded. For example, on 9th March, Taskheer, a horse running at Lingfield, won his race. The price suggested by the service was 12, the minimum odds given for value was 9. I managed to get 7, the SP was 11 and the BSP 12.5. I took the 7, believing it was a steamer. Wrong decision, but at least I got a return. At the time of placing my bets, I would have left it off if I had followed the guidance. On March 21 there was a Lucky 15 where three of the four selections were placed. I achieved none of the minimum odds for these (I acknowledge I didn’t get in quickly enough and may have done better if I had been able to get on earlier) but I still made 10 points profit. On 25 March, there was a patent with two horses in the same race. The shorter odds horse won the race (Elvis Mail, Kelso 3.35). It should not have been in the acca if the recommendations had been followed. So it should be recorded as an 11 point losing patent, but I’d be surprised if it wasn’t mentioned as a winning patent. On 28 March, there would have been a winning double – except that there were two runners in the same race, and the winner was the lower odds of the two, and so if you followed the advice, it would have cost you 150 points. I wonder if this will be claimed on the official results!
This is a paid for service, and so transparent results should be assumed. Certainly it’s a service where subscribers’ results could vary significantly from official results. The trial continues.
Back in the black with a profit of £120.31 at £10 stakes across all five strategies after just over three months:
It’s worth noting that Stuart has decided to discontinue the Lay the Draw strategy following a prolonged period of poor performance. In his words:
“I have removed the Lay The Draw strategy until at least the start of the new European season as this strategy has been performing poorly since last year, without it the service would be massively in profit to the tune of 102.55 points since September 2022 and this year to the tune of 64.25 points.
After a ridiculously poor month in February the service has recovered well and the exclusion of the lays (my least favourite method anyway) should mean the big swings we see when these were losing are further avoided.
Two big months left of the European seasons where I see the service getting back to previous years successes, however, I do still have selections on the summer leagues so the service is year round.
I am also now looking at an under 2.5 goal strategy and running this in the background, again automated via BF Bot Manager, I am monitoring this for the next couple of months to make sure the live results mirror what I expect and this, pending positive results will be added to the portfolio.”
Join pro football bettor Adam Cheng for the Inside Man Live Q&A at 7PM on Tuesday 28th March to discover…
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