I have been recording results for this service since the start of October and can now give an interim verdict.
This service is a little bit different as it is run via an Austrian web forum so all posting is done in German. Although this is a little daunting at first, it really is very easy to get to grips with. You can easily just copy and paste the advice into a translation website and although those sites play havoc with grammar and the order of sentence structure, they perfectly good enough to understand what bet to place.
The vast majority of bets are Lays bets on markets such as Half Time/Full Time Result, Over/Under 3.5 and Half Time score. The are also a good few back bets which have so far all been on the Both Teams To Score market.
You have to log into the forum and navigate to the correct service. Once there, the bets are listed in date order and are usually put up around 2 days in advance. All bets are written out to a €100 total liability and are very easy to understand. Below is a typical day’s advice:
Schottland Bank Premier
Ross Co. – Aberdeen ( Lay Halbzeitstand 0:0 Q 3,2 Einsatz 45.- ) (-100.-) Beginn 3.11 15:00
Palmeiras – Botafogo RJ ( Beide Teams mind. 1 Tor Back Ja Q 1,78 Einsatz 100.-) (-100.-) Beginn 3.11 21:30
Hamburg – Bayern München ( Lay Bayern/Bayern Q 2,14 Einsatz 88.-) (-100.-) Beginn 3.11 17:30
England Premier League
Man Utd. – Arsenal ( Lay mehr als 3,5 Tore Q2,72 Einsatz 58.-) (-100.-) Beginn 3.11 12:45
These were the bets for 3/11/12 and I have chosen day because it covered most of the bet types he uses.
As you can see it’s perfectly possible to pretty much work out what the bets are just by looking but if in any doubt just put it into Babelfish or Google Translate etc. They usually translate “Tor” as Gates instead of Goals but that’s obvious.
“Q” is short for Quote, which means the odds that the bets has been recorded at. These are always around the price you can get on Betfair for the Lays. With the backing of Both Teams To Score, it’s well worth shopping around as I usually find them at a better price than given in the advice.
“Einsatz” is the Stake and the figure in brackets is the total liability for the bet.
So in English those bets are:
Ross County v Aberdeen (Lay HT Score of 0 – 0 @ 3.2 for €45 (liability is 100)
Palmeiras v Botafogo (Both teams at least 1 goal, Back Yes @ 1.78 for €100 (liability is 100)
Hamburg v Bayern Munich (Lay Bayern/Bayern @2.14 for €88 (liability is 100)
Man U v Arsenal (Lay more than 3.5 goals @2.72 for €58) (liability is 100)
So you can see it’s pretty easy.
Now to performance. I started on 1st October and, as is typical for a review period, the service suffered its first losing month. The providers claim that a profit has been made in each of the eight months this has been running before I started and, going by the member’s comments I saw being made during a pretty bad run of results, I do tend to believe that claim as people were surprised and a bit shocked at the losses. Thankfully a very decent run of winning bets came along in time to recover nearly all the losses before the end of the month. I ended October €64.70 down.
November has been very different with really very decent profit of €665 made, so a total for the 2 months of around €600. Monthly subs are set at €29 which works out around the £25 mark, so not too expensive but does need thinking about as you do need to bet at a level where you are going to make a profit once those subs are paid. Betting at say £5 total liability isn’t going to give you much profit but you wouldn’t need to go as high as £100 either.
The profit would have been a bit higher if I had taken on the extra bets that were offered for a while in mid November. Betfair have pulled out of Germany and, as quite a few of the members seemed to be based there, they were unable to place any of the Lay bets. Most can be got round by just backing the opposite result with a bookie (if the bet says Lay Over 3.5, then you back Under etc) but the HT/FT bets were unavailable to those members. So the service did provide some extra bets for those customers and a profit was made, although I did not record these as I am UK based and able to use Betfair.
I do like this service as the bets are up well in advance, the profits and prices stated seem honest and very getable, it’s relatively well priced and has produced a good profit during the trial at the staking level the use.
I’m happy for this to go in the APPROVED list for now and I’m going to keep monitoring it for a while to make sure it stays in positive territory.
Below is a link to my spreadsheet detailing all October/Novermber bets and returns. As always, all returns are given after any commission payable has been deducted at 5%
UPDATE January 27th 2013
At the end of November I filed this under Approved on a provisional basis and was going to give a final review at the end of December.
Now that I can see the whole performance across the entire test period of the 3 months of October, November & December I am ready to give a final verdict. The trial ended with a loss of £188.99 after a disastrous run wiped out all profit gained and sent it into overall loss. You then have to consider that subscription fees have to be paid.
Given that this service works mainly on laying to a set liability it is going to take a fantastic run of results over a lengthy period to recover these losses and return to anywhere near the profit level where we could expect to cover all subs and survive another meltdown month like December.
Obviously this cannot remain in our Approved list. It is a shame that the performance couldn’t continue as it had been as I was very keen on it for a while but I’m afraid it will now have to be filed under our FAILED list as it recorded a loss of three months of the period when you would hope for most profit as all the big leagues are well underway and getting to the mid season point.
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