There was one selection over the weekend, but I was unable to place the bet due to unavoidable circumstances. This was probably just as well because it would have been a losing lay. Also, it is now time to wrap up the trial, so below is the final review.
World Cup aside, with the trial period falling outside the football season, I don’t think the timing was ideal. There were plenty of occasions when market liquidity was very poor and odds were chased out to levels where I was not prepared to bet.
I read that something like 4000 people signed up for the trial, but I don’t know what proportion were placing bets, rather than paper trading. However, from experience I believe that someone who doesn’t paper trade (or place tiny bets to test a system/ service) is generally also someone who lacks a clear understanding of how markets work and the concept of “value” and will chase prices.
During the season there is plenty of liquidity in the top European leagues. Consequently, even 4000 layers, betting reasonable amounts, would not be able to push prices out by very much. I feel a much better sense of how this service could perform if the trial had been delayed until after the season was under way.
On to the service itself. Emails giving selections were sent out in a very timely manner and were very detailed. I am not a football expert, but the match analysis looked to me to be high quality and well worth reading. Also, Andrew, the proprietor, was well aware of the dangers of prices being chased out and advised patience. I suspect that while many subscribers may have taken heed, there were some for whom the warning fell on deaf ears.
Regarding the results: I recorded a loss of £22.50 for the trial period, or just over two points. While this is hardly a disaster, it does not represent a profit.
I would like to see how this service fares during the season, when there is liquidity in the markets. Also, Andrew has stated that there will be only 200 subscribers. On that basis, prices are much more likely to remain stable and I would be interested to see how the service fares after the season is under way. In the meantime, while the monthly subscription fees are not excessive for this kind of service (maximum £37 per month), I recommend it should appear in the Neutral category.
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