I’ve been recording results for this service since late February and it is now time to wrap this up.
To recap, the service supplies fixtures that the owner predicts will NOT finish with a Home Win. The monthly subscription is currently £19.99 (+vat for UK customers) and selections are received by email the night before the game is scheduled to take place. There is an offer of a free one week trial and a 30 Day money back guarantee.
You are given a choice of different methods to use for bets, I started recording results using 5 methods; Back The Draw, Draw No Bet, Dutched Draw & Away win, Double Chance (draw/away) and finally Lay Home Team.
Back The Draw blew its bank very quickly, staking the adviced £100 from a starting bank of £1000, it lasted less than a month. Of the others, Lay Home Team lost the least amount but only had around a third of the number of selections due to the fact that the selections are almost all on small leagues that Betfair either don’t cover, or if they do, the liquidity just isn’t there to allow a bet to be sensibly placed.
That leaves the main 3 methods that can be used on most days. Of these, Draw No Bet (DNB) lost the least amount. After just over 3 months of testing, the final figure for DNB was -£181 using the same staking as suggested.
A lot of the damage was done early on with February’s losses almost halving the bank in the last 5 days of the month. It has picked up from that point but during the entire trial, we only spent 2 days in profit. Those came last week but a couple of losses have knocked it back down again.
It is very tough to see a way of making long term profits when betting at odds as low as these, DNB was the highest priced method used and the average price was just 1.40. The other main methods were considerably lower, Dutched and Double Chance methods both averaged out at 1.27.
Another issue to consider is the choice of Bookmaker available. The main big name firms may well only offer outright win markets for fixtures as obscure as some of those provided, the best prices found for the DNB & DC methods were almost always found at much smaller bookmaking firms that I know a lot of people can be wary of using.
If we leave aside actual monetary amounts and just talk in terms of POINTS staked and won/lost, we can say that the best performing method for this service lost 1.8 points over the course of a 3 month trial. April was the best month and made a profit of around 2.5 points. May ended with a losing bet taking month’s total down to 0.65 point profit.
This will have to be filed under FAILED, but I will keep an eye on it for another month to see if there is any hope of it becoming profitable.
So to actual END OF TEST FIGURES:
BOOKIE METHODS (£100 level stakes)
BACK THE DRAW -£1000 (BUST BANK. END OF RECORDING)
AWAY WIN (DNB) -£181
DUTCH DRAW/AWAY -£188.44
DOUBLE CHANCE -£201
BETFAIR METHOD (£100 LIABILITY 5% COMM DEDUCTED)