I’m going to be recording results for this new tipster service over the next few months.
As you can see from the sales page, this service specialises in betting that the game will NOT end in a draw.
There is a One Week Free Trial offer available and subscription costs £24.99 (+vat for UK residents) per month thereafter.
After signing up, you are directed to a page that explains how it all works. There are three staking plans to choose from; Level Stakes (10% of starting bank), Daily Calculated 10%, or a more aggressive Ratcheting Stake Level.
I always think that level stakes are the only way to go when trying out something new. I’m a firm believer in the fact that staking plans should only be used to improve the return a winning approach not to try and save a losing one.
You then have three different ways to place your bets.
You can “Dutch” your stake across both teams, this means that you split your stake and back both teams to win. The easiest method is to split them so that you get the same return if either win. You could also tweak that slightly so that you win more if the favourite wins and less if the underdog wins. For the sake of clarity on the trial, I will be recording Dutched stakes aimed at winning the same amount for either team.
You could just put one bet on the “Double Chance”. In this betting market you select one of “1x”, “12” or “x2”.
“1x” means Home Win or Draw, “12” means Home or Away win, “x2”. So for this service we would select “12”.
The last option is to Lay The Draw on Betfair. No explanation needed there but you do need to be aware that not every selection they make is offered on Betfair, and some that are have virtually no liquidity.
All sounds very muddily but is far clearer when broken into plain facts:
Choose your staking plan
Receive the selections
See which betting option gives you the best return.
It’s easy to see which is your best option as each selection is provided with a link to the correct page on an odds comparison website. There are also links to a handy Dutching Calculator so you can quickly calculate the potential win.
The average return for a winning selection is going to be around the 1.25 – 1.35 odds mark, so we’re going to need a strike rate nearing 80% to make this profitable.
The best way for me to run this trial is to record all bets at level stakes, and keep track of returns from all three betting methods. Obviously, I can only record a Betfair figure when they have the game available with a realistic level of liquidity.
I started the trial on Saturday with a notional £1000 bank, so stakes will be £100 per bet.
FIGURES SO FAR:
DOUBLE CHANCE METHOD
P/L -£24.50 (after comm)
The spreadsheet does make it easier to follow:
DETAILED RESULTS FOR DDD
SIGN UP FOR DDD HERE