28/8/08

Bank £1047

Gt Leighs 4.30 Once a Gulch. Lay £20 @ 3.4 Lost  +£19

Current bank   £1065

P/L   +£65

Only 2 others on the shortlist. Nevada Desert and Amicus Meus. Neither horse had too many negatives against them, but they could have been traded in running for guaranteed profit. Amicus Meus did win his race but traded as high as 20 in running on betfair. The main selection had many more key negatives against it than the other 2 and was always going to be the lay bet today. I was slightly worried that the price held steady all day and the horse was heavily backed just before the off. In fact I went back over the selection rules to make sure I was happy that I had made the right call. After yesterday’s loss I went back over the rules to see if I had missed anything. I think I may well have made that selection simply as it was the best of a bad bunch and it should have been a no bet day. But then the day before was kind of similar and the lay came off.

I think I will start being far more picky about full lay selections. It has been a decent start to the test and the author claims a strike rate in the high 80’s and that is roughly the level I have had in the first week after yesterday’s loss. It’s 86% as of the end of racing today, not too shabby when you consider the lay to back trades I have trying as well. Also whilst going through the selection process this morning, not only did I decide that Once A Gulch was a vulnerable favourite I also had the distinct impression that both Slam and Acrostic were damn good value for a place at least. They finished 1st and 2nd at 10/1 and 9/1 respectively with the fav unplaced. I really do like this book.