As I suddenly realized Friday, the weekend just gone marked six weeks that I have been running this test: not the four weeks I had thought. I think to some extent this is a reflection of how I am getting on with the system: I sure I wouldnt have lost track of how long the test had been running if I wasnt getting on with it.
For a system like this – with a (claimed) strike rate of 98% and a potential risk each day of one sixth of the bank – six weeks is not long enough either to do it justice or show up any flaws. With a projected 98% strike rate it is quite possible for a system to go for months without a loss, but when there is one it will take around a month to recover. For these reasons, I will make this an interim review. I will also continue to run the test, reporting about once per week on progress. Also, there is a dedicated bot in the pipeline and as soon as this is released I will incorporate it into the test. Hopefully, the results will then apply to the whole week and not just Thursday to Sunday.
As stated, the test has been run for six weeks. Due to personal circumstances this means that, effectively, there were 24 days where it would have been possible for me to actively test the system. As most (not all) Saturdays are a nightmare to set up – too many races just five minutes apart, or too much juggling – this is reduced to around 21 days. Of those it was possible to actively use the system on 17 days. This produced a 100% strike rate, but is far too small a sample to be statistically significant. However, I back checked on those days where I wasnt around to use the system and they too would have been winning days (subject to them also qualifying on potential liability). Ignoring Saturdays, this suggests that there would have been in the order of 30-40 days where the system could have been used and this too would have produced a 100% strike rate.
From reading the e-book and checking the data on the site referred to in the book, I am confident that this system has been well researched and has the potential for steady long term profits. In no way can it be regarded as a get rich quick scheme, but the author never pretends that it should be and he states that it should form part of a portfolio of systems, not used as a standalone product.
Regarded as a long term investment, as long as it continues to perform as claimed, it outperforms even the best “conventional” investments by a significant factor. For instance, (from memory) the best performing unit trust in the UK has had an annual growth rate of somewhere around 20% over the last twenty or more years. Compared to even the highest interest from savings accounts, this is an excellent performance. However, provided I have done my maths correctly and assuming a 98% strike rate, the system under review should produce an increase in the bank of slightly over 85% per annum. Obviously the “size” of the market (amount available to back or lay) is not infinite and liquidity will at some stage become a factor, especially when using a system that relies on progression. However for the purpose of illustration, compounding earnings at a rate of 85% over five years turns a £2000 starting bank into over £40,000. With 20% growth, £2000 invested into the unit trust over that same period would be worth around an eighth of that, or just under £5000.
Regarding the system itself, my impressions are positive. I found it easy to use and set up each day. Making the selections takes very little time, but the sequence does have to be checked shortly before the start of the days racing to ensure that the potential liability remains manageable. Other than that, it is simply a case of placing the bet, waiting for the result and, if the favourite hasnt won, move onto the next race in the sequence. The software included with the system (Excel spreadsheet) makes all necessary calculations and it is then simply a case of placing the bet.
My only problem with the system is that I am not very good at making sure I am sitting at my computer when I need to be and for a system like this it is necessary to be doing just that until the sequence is finished. Fortunately, most days the sequence finished early and so staying glued to the PC wasnt too much of a problem: if I recall correctly, there was only one day when the favourite didnt win until after the sixth race in the sequence and that wasnt a day that I actively tested the system. However, when it arrives the bot should make a significant difference.
I shall recommend to Graham that he adds this system to the Approved Systems list. This is a system that I intend to add to my portfolio and, provided there is a bot to save me sitting at the PC, I will be using it on a regular basis. The only thing I will probably do differently is to compound the bank: each time the system shows a 10% profit I will increase the daily target by the same percentage.
From now on I will report about once per week on progress and with any updates.