I shall be trialling Favourites Phenomenon System over the next several weeks. This is a stop at a winner system (SAW) for backing favourites in the UK market.
The system has not been heavily hyped; there are no ludicrous and unsupportable claims to the profitability of the system and there has not been a concerted email sales campaign: seemingly written by Walter Mitty. I came across this system by accident, an email favourable compared it with another that did not come off nearly so well. I then had to Google the name of the system and the author in order to find it. I think this is a bit of a shame as the promo page is well written (especially when compared to some of the offerings that are available) and it was a pleasure to read. Also, given this is a system for backing favourites – even taking into account the effects of progression – market liquidity should not be an issue, provided that not too many users will be working with a £20,000 bank.
The manual itself is web-based and I found this a minor drawback, but it has been written by someone with more than a passing acquaintance with the English language: it is easy to understand and there is no “fluff” or padding – not even the almost obligatory instructions on how to use Betfair. All-in-all, this short and to-the-point manual made a refreshing change from most of the competition. Also, I am finding the author helpful, accessible and pleasant to deal with.
Moving on to the system itself: Unlike some SAW systems, it appears that this system has been thoroughly researched and tested and the author uses it himself. Also, he is well aware of the risks inherent in using SAW systems and makes it clear that discipline is essential and that the system rules must be followed. Along with this are three straightforward and easy to follow staking plans. These plans could be regarded as beginner, intermediate and experienced. The main purpose of the first two plans is to acclimatise the user to the idea of progression and it is the last plan I shall be using for this test.
The system is simple to follow and I need to be vague in order to avoid giving too much away, but the plan I shall be following has a maximum sequence of nine races: if the target has not been achieved by then it is essential to stop and write that off as a losing day. The manual states that taking a disciplined approach and following the system rules to the letter – especially with regard to the staking plans – will lead to long term consistent profits. There is also information on how to back-check results and anyone taking the trouble to do this should find that it supports the authors contention.
A downside to this system is that it uses the live market and, unless they have a bot to do the job for them, it is necessary for users to be prepared to sit at the PC for at least two hours each day. However, on most days the target winnings should have been achieved in an hour or less. Another downside is that – despite a very high strike rate – when losses do occur they can be painful: however, following the system rules will keep the losses manageable. This is a system for those of us who want to make consistent long term profits and who don’t mind taking the occasional heavy hit and the author advocates that this system is used as part of a portfolio of systems, rather than as a standalone.
It is possible that I will be able to get a bot to do the work for me, in which case each Thursday I will report on how the system performed Monday-Wednesday. Thursday-Sunday I will report daily. Until I get the bot operational (I not a programming genius and I will be relying on someone else to set things up for me), owing to other commitments I will report Thursdays to Sundays only, however this shouldnt pose any problems: as previously mentioned the emphasis is on long term profits. To compensate for the fact that the trial may only be run four days in every seven I will, if it proves necessary, run the test for at least six weeks. My results wont include any figures from those days that I have not bet, but I shall attempt each Thursday to comment on how the system would have performed.
The strike rate for the staking plan I shall be using is stated as 98%: to protect the bank the author advises that a test is carried out before the start of racing and if at the end of the sequence the loss was to exceed 30 points, from a 200 point bank, then that would be a no-bet day. If the 98% strike rate holds then it is quite possible that there will be no losses during the course of the trial. If there are I will run the trial for six weeks or more and hopefully this will go some way to showing the ability of the system to recover. I shall be using the recommended daily target of £10 (after Betfairs commission) with a £2000 betting bank. Lastly, this probably doesnt need mentioning, but as FP System is a backing system it is not essential to use a betting exchange.
I received an email yesterday, after I’d typed up the body of this introduction, there is a custom designed bot in the pipeline and it should be available in about a month. As and when I have more information I will include it in my blog.