A summary of the strategies can be found here.
The strategies and their acronyms are;
1. GOAL BEFORE HALF TIME (GBHT)
2. GOAL AFTER HALF TIME (GAHT)
3. UNDER 2.5 GOALS (U2.5G)
4. LOSER AT HALF TIME (LAHT)
For ease of recording, all bets will be to a 1 point stake, so lay bets will actually be up to 4pts maximum. The author uses a fixed lay liability of 4pts for some of the strategies. I have included his actual bets as part of this post to exemplify this approach and demonstrate the level of his analysis.
Results
Review Start Date; 1/6/14
9/6/14 & 10/6/14 No Selections
8/6/14
01:30-USA-Major League Soccer Chicago Fire vs Seattle Sounders GBHT 31′ +0.95pts
17:15-Sweden-Superettan Hammarby vs Landskrona Bois GBHT 28′ +0.95pts
21:00-Paraguay-Apertura Sol De America vs Club Nacional GBHT 39′ +0.95PTS
Daily P/L; +2.85pts Trial P/L; +3.53pts
The vendors results and explanation;
USA-Major League Soccer Chicago Fire vs Seattle Sounders +£15.83. Before kick off I layed at 3.40 with £40.00 liability
The goal came on 31st minute and my profit after commission was +£15.83. The score at half time was 1-2 and 2-3 at full time.
Sweden-Superettan Hammarby vs Landskrona Bois +£12.67. Before kick off I layed at 4.00 with £40.00 liability (I had to wait a few minutes in play for it to be matched). The goal came on 28th minute and my profit after commission was +£12.67. The score at half time was 1-0 and 4-0 at full time.
Paraguay Apertura Sol De America vs Club Nacional +£16.52. Before kick off I layed at 3.30 with £40.00 liability. The goal came on 39th minute and my profit after commission was +£16.52. The score at half time was 1-0 and 1-1 at full time.
Profit for the day +£45.02 Running Total for June 2014 +£42.95
7/6/14
06:00-Japan-J2 League Iwata vs Mito U2.5G +0.08pts
Before kick off I backed Under 2.5 for 1pt at 1.81. After 15 minutes with the score still 0-0 I layed 1.14pts at 1.64 This gave me a profit of just 0.08pts. The first goal came in the 21st minute and the final score was 1-0
06:00-Japan-J2 League Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi Sc U2.5G -0.42PTS
Before kick off I backed Under 2.5 for 1PT at 1.75. The goal came in the 6th minute) so it was a trade out for a loss by laying Under 2.5 for 0.61PTS at 2.92. This gave a loss of -0.42PTS The final score was a 6-1!
The vendor is already beginning to think that the edge may have gone from this system. Apparently he used to win more on the successful trades and lose less on the unsuccessful ones. He suggests it might simply be best to avoid Japan which is usually awash with goals and maybe the prices are reflecting it.
Selections have been a bit sparse recently but they are starting to increase now that the summer leagues have settled.
Daily P/L; -0.34pts Trial P/L; +0.68pts
The vendors results and explanation;
Under 2.5 Japan-J2 League Iwata vs Mito +£4.07
Before kick off I backed Under 2.5 for £50.00 at 1.81
After 15 minutes with the score still 0-0 I layed Under 2.5 for £56.92 at 1.64
This gave me a profit of just £4.07 after tax.
The first goal came in the 21st minute and the final score was 1-0
Japan-J2 League Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi -£21.04
Before kick off I backed Under 2.5 for £50.00 at 1.75
Sadly the goal came too soon (6th minute) and I traded out for a loss.
As soon as the market settled I layed Under 2.5 for £30.49 at 2.92
This gave me a loss of -£21.04
The final score was a massive 6-1 (ouch!!)
Loss for the day -£16.97 Running Total for June 2014 -£2.07
6/6/14
13:15-Singapore-S League Dpmm Fc vs Home United Fc GBHT & GAHT – Not covered bt Betfair so no bet! Both bets would have won!
The score was 0-1 at half time and our GBHT goal came after 12 minutes.
The score was 2-3 at Full Time and our GAHT came after just 1 minute of the second half.
23:30-Paraguay-Apertura Cerro Porteno vs Club Guarani GAHT – NQ
The score was 4-1 at Half Time and therefore didn’t qualify because more than three goals had been scored. Incredibly it ended 5-5
Daily P/L; +0.0pts Trial P/L; +1.02pts
5/6/14 No selections
4/6/14
Finland-Veikkausliiga Lahti vs TPS U2.5G 1pt [email protected] Layed on 15′ @1.75 +0.07pts
Daily P/L; +0.07pts Trial P/L; +1.02pts
The vendors results and explanation;
Under 2.5 Finland-Veikkausliiga Lahti vs Tps +£4.34
Before kick off I backed Under 2.5 for £50 at odds of 1.91
After 15 minutues the score was still 0-0 and the odds to lay were 1.75.
I layed Under 2.5 for £54.57 at 1.75 which gave me a profit after commission of just £4.34
I was a little surprised that the odds didn’t fall any lower but there had been some early injuries and they may have had an effect.
I always trade out at 15 minutes, although for this match the first goal didn’t come until the 81st minute and the final score was 2-0.
Staying in would have given a higher return but rules are rules and I traded out.
Running Total for June 2014 +£14.90
