Saturday October 5th 2013

Ross County have the worst defensive record in the Scottish Premier League having conceded 17 goals so far this season.  Seven of those 8 games have featured 3 or more goals including all four of their home matches.  Aberdeen have scored in all 4 of their away games, 3 of which have also seen 3 goals or more.  Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals are good prices @7/8 and 21/20 given those statistics but since Aberdeen have only conceded 3 goals in their last 5 matches the best value lies in taking Aberdeen to score two or more.

10pt win with Ladbrokes

Scottish Premier League (KO 3.00pm)

Ross County v Aberdeen total away goals over 1.5 @5/4 (2.25) – alternately take the widely available 6/5 (2.2)

In Finland, Mariehamn have an impressive record in scoring away from home.  Since April 2012 they have score in every away game apart from a 0-0 draw to champions HJK Helsinki and a 4-0 defeat in a Cup game.  That sequence has seen them net in 12 consecutive league away matches.  In 7 of those they scored at least 2.  Home team Lahti  have conceded on 5 of their last 6 at home, leaking 7 in their last 4.  Marihamn should score but are no price to do so.  The price leaps for them to get 2 or more, something they have done consistently this season.  Port Vale and Bristol City have had no problem scoring and conceding in spades this season.  Both teams to score has paid out in all 6 of Port Vale’s home matches and the only side to stop Bristol City scoring on their travels was Premier League Southampton.  Both teams to score looks a solid bet.

5pt double with Bet365 @3.24/1 (4.24)

Lahti v Mariehamn (Finland KO 1.15pm) total away goals over 1.5 @13/8 (2.63)

Port Vale v Bristol City (England League 1) both teams to score @8/13 (1.62)

Next best is Sportingbet @4.11 and 888Sport @4.08

 

Finally, this treble looks a touch of value and is worth a bet to small stakes:

3pt longshot with Ladbrokes @3.32/1 (4.32)

SV Grodig v Sturm Graz (Austria Bundesliga KO 6.00pm) both teams to score @1/2

Creteil v Angers (France Ligue 2 KO 1.00pm) both teams to score @4/5

Alfreton v Forest Green (English Conference KO 3.00pm) both teams to score @3/5

 

ALL 3 BETS LOST -18pts

RUNNING P/L -40.38 pts