I’m going to be recording the results from the service Graham introduced us to on Friday.
They are currently offering a Free 1 Month Trail of their tips so you can try before you buy by simply paper trading and seeing how we end up.
There is a members area you can log into to get the tips and read any comments from customers and the responses given by the owners and the tips also arrive by email. So far the email has arrived on the stroke of midnight the night before the games are played.
I must say that the Members Area is an interesting read and comments are answered thoroughly and sensibly in my opinion. There are a couple of articles to read about the methodology behind the selections too.
The advise on a starting bank size states that you should be ok with a 200 point bank but the more cautious should use a 300 point start. So I think I’ll be recording events on a spreadsheet using the midpoint of 250 points. Nick also advises that he does not think progressive staking is a good idea and that we should stick to the staking point he recommends.
Rather than me waffle on and just give the profit/loss figures, I think it better that I just copy the text of the message received as it details all the factors behind the bet. The prices quoted in the email have all been available when I checked them, so no fiddling going on there.
The only point I need to highlight is that on a few of the less common betting markets it is better to just go to the Bookmaker’s site quoted in the email as it can be tricky to navigate to the correct market on Oddschecker and when you do finally find the right page you find that only one or two of them actually quote a price.
If at any point I find that prices quoted in the email are different from those I can find available when I check, I will of course make a note of it and record the bet at my price.
Enough with the intro, here’s the advice received so far:
Friday’s NAP comes from the Austrian Erste Liga where it has been raining goals since the start of the season. Home side Horn have a remarkable goals record in that their last 15 competitive matches have all seen 3 or more goals. This season their 9 league matches have produced a staggering 42 goals and all 9 of those matches have broken the over 2.5 goal barrier. Of greater interest, 8 of those 9 games have featured 4 or more goals. Visitors, and league leaders, Altach are not quite as prolific although their away record reads W2-0, W4-0, W1-0, L1-5, W4-1, W4-0. Over 2.5 goals is a best priced 1/2 and both teams to score is a best priced 9/20. However, given these goal stats there is more value to be had in backing over 3.5 goals @5/4.
Friday 20/09/2013 Austrian Erste Liga
10pt win with Bwin or 888Sport
Horn v Altach over 3.5 goals @5/4 LOST (0-0) -10pts
Daily P/L (Day 1) -10pts
Running P/L -10pts
Plenty of action on Saturday and our NAP comes from the encounter between Morecambe and Dagenham & Redbridge. Morecambe are on a fine run winning their last three games by scores of 3-2, 3-1 and 2-1. They have scored 5 goals in their 3 home games so far this season. Dag & Red have conceded 10 goals in their 4 competitive away games this season, on all but one occasion leaking 3 goals. Morecambe look highly likely to score in this fixture and the 13/10 for them to score two or more rates good value.
10pt win with Coral
Morecambe v Dagenham & Redbridge total home goals over 1.5 @13/10 WON (2-2) +13pts
Another side who look good for goals are TNS from the Welsh Premier League. They kicked off the season with a 6-0 home win and have returned results of D2-2, W3-1 and W4-0 away from home in their last 3 games. In their last five home encounters with today’s visitors Bangor (my local side) they have scored 6, 3, 5, 3 and 3 goals. It’s 11/10 for the home side to score 3 or more. Bury host Southend and enter this match on the back of 3 away losses and 5 goals conceded. They are stronger at home and should find the net today. Southend have scored in each of their 3 away games this season. Both teams to score is a decent price @8/11.
5pt double with Sportingbet
TNS v Bangor total home goals over 2.5 @11/10 LOST (2-0)
Bury v Southend both teams to score @8/11 WON (1-1) -5pts
Finally, the Betfred Goals Galore Coupon offers great value @9/2 this weekend. All the stats point towards goals in these games and this treble is generally around the 10/3 mark with all other bookmakers. Definitely worth a couple of points.
2pt win with Betfred Goals Galore Coupon (both teams to score)
Norwich v Aston Villa LOST (0-1)
Swindon v Bristol City WON (3-2)
Port Vale v Coventry WON (3-2) -2pts
Daily P/L (Day 2) +6pts
Running P/L -4pts
So as you can see we got off to a losing start but the thought processes and reasoning for the selections made do seem pretty sound and I have high hopes for this service. We made 6 points yesterday and were a Norwich missed penalty away from hitting double figures.
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