Tuesday October 15th 2013

Russia U21 have a pretty impressive goals record at home and 13 of their last 14 home games have gone over 2.5 goals.  8 of those matches have gone over 3.5 goals, including the two recent games with Bulgaria U21 that finished 3-3 and 3-1.  Opponents Denmark arrive on the back of two 2-2 draws with Slovenia U21 and wins of 6-0 and 4-1 against Andorra and Northern Ireland.  I was surprised to see over 2.5 goals priced up as high as 7/10 but it is Sportingbet’s 9/5 for over 3.5 goals that really stands out given this outcome is as low as 6/4 elsewhere.

10pt win with Sportingbet

Russia U21 v Denmark U21 (Euro U21 Qualifier KO 3.30pm) over 3.5 goals @9/5 (2.8)

BetVictor are next best at 17/10 (2.7)

If Bulgaria beat the Czechs on Tuesday then they qualify for the World Cup (unless Denmark put a cricket score past Malta).  The Czechs need to win by 2 goals or more and hope for a miracle in Denmark.  With the hosts destination in their own hands this game should open up with plenty of opportunities at either end.  The Czechs have scored in all their away games since an opening 0-0 draw with Denmark last year and Bulgaria have scored in all their home qualifiers.  We also head to Brazil on Tuesday and the Serie B match between two in-form sides in Chapecoense and Ceara.  Home side Chapecoense are in fine scoring form, netting 12 goals in their last 3 games.  9 of their last 12 home games have broken the over 2.5 goals barrier.  Visitors Ceara are also in decent form having scored in 15 consecutive matches and their last 4 away games have also broken the over 2.5 goals barrier.

5pt double with Ladbrokes @2.63/1 (3.63)

Chapecoense v Ceara (Brazil Serie B KO 11.30pm) over 2.5 goals @9/10 (1.9)

Bulgaria v Czech Republic (WC Qualifier KO 7.15pm) both teams to score @10/11 (1.91)

BetVictor are next best at 3.35

Both Bets Lost -15

RUNNING P/L -120.32 points