I’ve been banging on about this recently, and somebody has asked how I make my picks. The point about Inform is to go to the site and test out your ideas. I always hold the class of race to be a very significant factor, and I watch for horses being dropped in class, but also how far they may have been beaten in previous class races, how the handicapper has treated them, how they have performed on similar courses, etc. So, I don’t have a hard and fast method which provides definite selections. It depends on the ‘feel’ of the race, what the competition is, I have my favourite jocks (Holly Doyle!), etc. Inform does not cover Irish racing, so beware of Irish raiders on UK cards where there is no form shown.
I would not get involved in tipping, as I would hate to be responsible for people losing money. However, for this one time only, I’m going through today’s Salisbury card with my usual minimum stakes on Betfair (£2). So here goes…
12.50. Miss Villanelle currently 19.5 on Betfair. Note these bigger odds runner willl usually do better at BSP than early price. LTO beaten 3.8 in a c4 race, so £2 win and £2 on the 4 places. £4 staked.
1.25. The top 3 in this race all look better than the others on the class pars. I’ve backed all 3 at £2. You could dutch them, but then you’d have to back more than £6 in total. If the favourite wins, currently at just over evens, I lose around £2. If either of the others win, I make a decent profit. £6 staked.
1.55. Spanish Colt is down in class, £2 win, £2 3 places. £4 staked.
2.25. Secret Return won a class 4 race 42 days ago, £2 win, £2 3 places. £4 staked
2.55. Solid favourite, tricky race to make a profit for a low stakes man like me, no forecast market has formed here yet, but if one does form, I’ll back £2 for 5 and 2 reversed £4 staked.
3.25. Favourite should win this easily, so I’ll just have £2 on Airshow for 4 places, which has won a c3 in the past. If a forecast market forms, £2 on 1 and 4. £4 staked. Update at 3.21, Airshow is 5 not 4, so my rev fc is 1 and 5. Price is currently 28
3.55. Harbour Front was thrown in out of his depth last time but is given a chance in this lower grade with less weight on previous form. Point In Time is also down in grade. I’ll have £2 win on each, £2 each for 4 places, and if a rev f/c market forms, £2 on that too. With the prices on the f/c, you have to decide of you’re happy to take them. You can put a higher price and hope to get matched, but these markets aren’t very liquid and there’s no BSP, so I usually take what’s on offer as long as it’s not unreasonable. £10 staked
4.25. Oud Metha Bridge and Robero have shown fair form in better class races, so £2 on each of these plus £2 4 places and £2 rev f/c if market forms. £10 staked
So I’ve laid out a total of £46 at Salisbury if the forecast markets form, and I fully expect to lose all of it. This isn’t because I’m naturally pessimistic (why would I be betting?!) but because I have picked high odds selections which I feel retain decent value. The selections here are not for advice, but for interest. I have reported back on how much I’ve won a couple of times, but not how much I’ve lost on the losing days. I feel there’s definitely some traction in the class pars, which is why I keep returning to them.
Go and take a look at them over at Inform Racing
Well, I didn’t lose all of it, but no cigars. Not an unusual result, but many selections ran better than their odds. Miss Villanelle was beaten a neck for 4th place -£4. Arafi won, so net win after 5% comm was £9.02. Spanish Colt came 3rd, -.34p. Secret Return lost, -£4. Rev forecast failed on the 2.55, -£4. Airshow didn’t make the frame, -£2. Point In Time made the frame, -£3.15. Neither horse made the frame in the 4.25, -£8.
So, overall loss of £16.47, or just over 8 points. In a way I’m relieved it wasn’t a big winning day for my selections, which may have given a false message. If I see a horse at big odds which, if it was able to run to the best we know it has run then it would have a great chance of winning, I’ll back it. There are many reasons it may not run up to its personal best, but those are why the odds are bigger, and there are enough occasions where we see these things happen to make it fun to back them for a low stakes bettor like me.
However, I did back some decent winners today, including Eversomuch, an obvious one on the class pars, who obliged going away at 30.0