Like me, you probably roll your eyes when a service hits a big winner and decides that is a good time to put out a marketing push, based on that winner. But of course, you should never sign up to anything based on a winner, or a recent winning period. When I see a service showing a 40% ROI in the last two months, I want to know what the ROI is over a year, rather than the cherry-picked terms from the service provider.
Having said that, I make no apologies for posting this result from yesterday’s 3.55 at Pontefract. Inform Racing is all about speed ratings; after all, it’s the fastest horse on the day which wins the race. Obviously you can’t take speed alone as the measure, there are many other variables such as weight, course, jockey, going, etc etc. But I use Inform’s class pars as my first port of call. Notice in the above example, the class pars for this race are 76 and 85. So that’s 76 as the average par necessary to win a race of this type, class and age group. That doesn’t mean that any runner which has achieved that par will win the race, it just shows that it has achieved that par previously for the type/class/age group of a race. Equally, any runner which has failed to achieve that par previously can of course improve, and win the race (though I wouldn’t personally back anything which hasn’t made the class par). The 85 is the highest rating achieved for that class.
So, spotting Monsaraz in that race yesterday, I could see there was a hotpot odds-on favourite, and the market was giving Monsaraz no chance. I do take notice of the market, it’s a huge factor in the probability of how the race is likely to pan out. However, the class pars were enough to tell me that it was a race I shouldn’t be investing in, as they were so at odds with the market. But at a big price, I will always chuck in a minimum bet of £2, so I backed Monsaraz at BSP for £2 and also £2 on the extra place (4TBP). And I actually forgot about it, and it was only when I could see my Betfair balance had been bolstered that I checked back to see Monsaraz had won at a BSP of 60, and I had won £115.64 after tax for my £2 stake, plus £8.43 place for the same stake. Checking back to the race, the horse won easily by nearly 2 lengths. The second horse, Hammy End, had also achieved the average class par, and the hot favourite, Pleasure Garden, at 1.75 BSP only made third place. At 77, it had the same highest class par as Hammy End.
Now, I’m definitely not suggesting this particular method is a surefire way to make profits. But it’s one of the many great aspects of Inform Racing which can be used to build your own picture of how a race might unfold. It also has a system builder, so that you can interrogate past results in any angle of your choosing, and create profitable back and lay systems. When you have found a system you think might be a goer, you save it as a file, and by using the declarations builder, you can see the qualifiers of your system for today’s races in seconds. Inform Racing don’t rest on their laurels, the site is in constant development, and the latest facility is the Betting Tissue Tool which allows you to price up a race depending on those aspects of previous form which you want to emphasise. There is also a blog by the owner on the site, as well as a lively Twitter account https://twitter.com/InformRacing
For the price of a pint of beer a week, I wouldn’t be without it. You can sign up to Inform Racing here.