Correction
This wasn’t how I planned to start today’s blog but a very helpful reader has rightly pointed out that I have misinterpreted a column in the past results table in the JAS website (thank you reader). The column is headed “Asset Win Rate” which I interpreted as the Win Rate for a successful trade, i.e. the odds. The values are close to what I would expect for the trades but it’s not that at all! It’s simply a column telling you how many times a signal on that currency pair has been successful i.e. it’s more a Success Rate. So it’s like a Tipster telling you how often he has won when tipping a particular horse. I’m not sure I can see any particular value in that statistic which is why I dismissed that as the interpretation. Nevertheless it means my returns need correcting. (Also I missed a ‘Tie’ earlier (see below) so I have included that in my corrected figures.) I think it also means I should expand on how BOs work for those not familiar with them.
When you make a trade there is a Win Rate, it’s expressed as a %age and is effectively the odds. A win rate of say 70% means if the trade is successful there is a profit of 70% of your stake to be had i.e. in odds terms it’s 1.70 or 7/10 on. The exception to this is where the trade ends in a Tie, like cricket it’s rare but possible. In this case most BO Brokers will just return the stake and treat it as a no bet but some take a view you are betting on higher (or lower) and a Tie is not higher (or lower), a bit like a ‘zero’ on the roulette wheel. I’m not aware of one who treats it like a ‘dead-heat’ at the bookmakers where half the stake is a lose and half a win but I’m sure there will be one somewhere! Asking these questions is all part of the due diligence process.
Like bookmakers each BO Broker will quote their own Win Rate for a currency pair and shopping around can improve your win returns. This makes it much more difficult to monitor historical results if you are sound asleep when the signal comes in because you don’t know what the Win Rate for a trade was (this is what convinced me they were quoting the Win Rates to make historical assessment easier and not a Success Rate). And to make it even more difficult the Win Rate will not only vary from BO Broker to BO Broker but also from currency pair to currency pair. JAS recommend some BO Brokers so I took the time out yesterday to briefly review them and compare their Win Rates (this is not in any way a full review/comparison of BO Brokers and you should still do your own due diligence as I have said in my first blog on this service). The comparison, for the currency pairs used by JAS since my review started, looks like this …
|
Currency Pair |
Option 24 | Tradorax | Grand Option | ubinary | BOSS Capital | Option time | Cherry Trade | Average |
| AUD/CAD | 68% | 75% | 78% | 75% |
74% |
|||
|
AUD/CHF |
65% | 75% | 78% | 75% | 75% | 74% | ||
| AUD/JPY | 68% | 75% | 70% | 78% | 75% | 70% | 78% |
73% |
|
AUD/NZD |
70% | 75% | 72% | 78% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 74% |
| AUD/USD | 72% | 75% | 70% | 72% | 75% | 76% | 73% |
73% |
|
CAD/CHF |
71% | 75% | 78% | 75% |
75% |
|||
|
CAD/JPY |
70% | 75% | 70% | 78% | 75% | 78% | 78% | 75% |
|
EUR/AUD |
70% | 75% | 70% | 72% | 75% | 75% | 80% | 74% |
|
EUR/CAD |
70% | 70% | 72% | 78% | 75% | 75% |
73% |
|
| EUR/GBP | 72% | 75% | 70% | 72% | 85% | 75% | 70% |
74% |
|
EUR/USD |
75% | 85% | 70% | 72% | 85% | 80% | 81% | 78% |
| GBP/CHF | 71% | 75% | 70% | 78% | 75% | 75% |
74% |
|
|
GBP/JPY |
72% | 85% | 70% | 77% | 85% | 75% | 70% |
76% |
| NZD/CHF | 71% | 75% | 70% | 78% | 75% | 70% |
73% |
|
|
NZD/USD |
72% | 75% | 70% | 72% | 75% | 72% | 80% | 74% |
| USD/CAD | 60% | 75% | 75% | 72% | 75% | 80% | 70% |
72% |
|
USD/CHF |
70% | 75% | 70% | 75% | 75% | 80% | 85% |
76% |
| USD/JPY | 72% | 75% | 70% | 72% | 75% | 75% | 70% |
73% |
Except where there is only one Win Rate quoted the lowest Win Rate for a currency pair is shown in Red and the highest is shown in Green (an empty cell means the broker does not quote for that pair). So as you can see, to get the best rates for a signal you need to have accounts with at least 2 and maybe 3 BO Brokers. But, Win Rates are not cast in stone and can change so if you are always looking for the best Win Rate for a trade you need to keep this table under constant review (your own Oddschecker for BO Brokers).
The “Average” column is the average Win Rate across the BO Brokers for each currency pair. I shall use the Average Win Rate in reworking the past results and future results.
I don’t see there is much to be gained by relisting all the signals from last week and in any event you can find them at live-signals once they become post expiry. The actual signals will not have changed it’s only the return that has changed and my plan is to give frequent commentary on how the signals are performing with a full list, trying to draw some conclusions, at the end of each week. So here is the list of corrected returns from the days already reported on …
|
Date |
+ or – |
Cumm. |
|
22/06/15 |
-1.27 |
-1.27 |
|
23/06/15 |
4.47 |
3.21 |
|
24/06/15 |
1.71 |
4.91 |
|
25/06/15 |
-1.52 |
3.39 |
|
26/06/15 |
-0.34 |
3.06 |
|
29/06/15 |
-2.63 |
0.43 |
|
30/06/15 |
-3.05 |
-2.63 |
So the service is doing 1.73 better than I had stated. My apologies to all and in particular to JAS.
So now let’s move forward
Wednesday 01/07
There were 7 signals on Wednesday, only 1 was ‘overnight’ with the rest being in the early morning, one at 07:29 and 5 at 08:19. The total return for the day for all signals was +1.69 bringing the running total loss to date down to -0.94.
Thursday 02/07
Only 4 signals today, 2 overnight and 2 in the evening. They yielded a profitable day of 2.95 putting the running total in profit at +2.01
The previous blog on this service can be found here
