I have a new system to start testing today and this is one that has been developed by one of our own testers Les Parkin. Naturally in the interests of impartiality I shall be testing this one myself and as we know from the trial we did of Andres tipping service, being one of the bloggers here doesn’t mean he gets any special treatment (sorry Les). If the system doesn’t work, I’m going to say so!
Now, lets explain a little bit about the system. It’s a laying system that uses a very unusual criteria for selecting the horses to lay. In fact, I’ve never seen anything like it and I doubt anyone else has. Secondly, the logic is totally sound. Much like the Bet Synergy system, this system relies on finding ‘Value’ bets. Whereas with Bet Synergy we were looking for selections whos odds were much higher than their true worth, with Lay Investor we identify horses whos Lay odds are lower than they really should be. By laying these horse, as with Bet Synergy, we simply must profit over the long term.
Now for the shocker. As you probably know, I favour laying systems that go for false favourites at short odds because the liabilities are low. As long as you have a decent strike rate, which is obviously difficult, then you make a profit. However, with Lay Investor it is the opposite. In fact some of the odds are teeth grindingly large and this did, at first, make me do a double take and wonder if Les had lost his marbles. But again, the logic is sound. Even if you hit a high odds winner now and then, the LONG TERM results should still show a decent profit as long as the bets are good value.
We had the same with Bet Synergy, a low strike rate but the few winners gave enough to give a healthy profit. With Lay Investor, we expect a high strike rate (quoted 98% and above) with a few losing bets ripping away at the profits but still leaving a good profit.
Now, Les has told me that when you do get a high odds winner this will typically cause the whole month to run at a loss. This happened in four separate months last year, but the other eight winning months pulled the system into a decent profit. This of course leaves us with a bit of a problem with regards to testing the system. If we have a cracking month then it wouldn’t reflect the overall profitability of the system because we may not have hit a high odds losing bet. Conversly, if we do hit a high odds winner, then obviously we are going to run at a loss and equally this wouldn’t reflect the long term profitability.
So heres what I intend to do. I’ll test this for a month, as usual, more to get a feel for the system and report on it’s ease of use, number of selections etc. etc. At the end of the month, I’ll do a review based on these factors and the results but with a caveat that the results will simply have to be reviewed long term. I’ll then update the results on a monthly basis to let you know how I’m getting on.
One of the system criteria is that the selection must be between certain odds. It allows for the use of betting bots (like the Grey Horse Bot) and gives the odds to input if using one of these. If you don’t use a betting bot then you would be required to check the SP before the off to make sure the selection qualifies.
The system also comes with the core system and then added filters making it Bronze, Silver, and Gold with the strike rate going up in sequence. With the higher strike rate the staking plan is adjusted to reflect the fact that you get less selections. For the purposes of this test I will just be going with the core system and I will be using the suggested staking plan of dividing the betting bank into three points and risking one point per bet. So we will be risking a third of the betting bank on every bet placed. With such a high strike rate this should see the bank growing quickly so long as we don’t get a high priced winner early on.
So on with the test. I’ll be using the Grey Horse Bot to monitor prices and place bets. This will obviously run in Manual mode and I simply enter the selections, allowed odds and liability and leave it to do it’s thing.
Today there were two selections:
1:50 FAKENHAM Backstage – Non-Runner.
3:00 PLUMPTON Flinders Bay – Meeting Abandoned.